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2018 Vol. 35, No. 12

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A 31-year Global Diurnal Sea Surface Temperature Dataset Created by an Ocean Mixed-Layer Model
Xiang LI, Tiejun LING, Yunfei ZHANG, Qian ZHOU
2018, 35(12): 1443-1454. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8016-7
A dataset of hourly sea surface temperature (SST) from the period 1 January 1982 to 31 December 2012, and covering the global ocean at a resolution of 0.3 0.3, was created using a validated ocean mixed-layer model (MLSST). The model inputs were heat flux and surface wind speed obtained from the Coupled Forecast System Reanalysis dataset. Comparisons with in-situ data from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array and the National Data Buoy Center showed that the MLSST fitted very well with observations, with a mean bias of 0.07C, and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient of 0.37C and 0.98, respectively. Also, the MLSST fields successfully reproduced the diurnal cycle of SST in the in-situ data, with a mean bias of -0.005C and RMSE of 0.26C. The 31-year climatology revealed that the diurnal range was small across most regions, with higher values in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, northern Indian Ocean, western Central America, northwestern Australia, and several coastal regions. Significant seasonal variation of diurnal SST existed in all basins. In the Atlantic and Pacific basins, this seasonal pattern was oriented north-south, following the variation in solar insolation, whereas in the Indian basin it was dominated by monsoonal variability. At the interannual scale, the results highlighted the relationship between diurnal and interannual variations of SST, and revealed that the diurnal warming in the central equatorial Pacific could be a potential climatic indicator for ENSO prediction.
Nocturnal Low-level Winds and Their Impacts on Particulate Matter over the Beijing Area
Yong CHEN, Junling AN, Yele SUN, Xiquan WANG, Yu QU, Jingwei ZHANG, Zifa WANG, Jing DUAN
2018, 35(12): 1455-1468. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8022-9
Three-month wind profiles, 260 m PM1 concentrations [i.e., particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm], and carrier-to-noise ratio data at two Beijing sites 55 km apart (urban and suburban) were collected to analyze the characteristics of low-level nocturnal wind and PM in autumn and winter. Three mountain-plain wind events with wind shear were selected for analysis. The measurements indicated that the maximum wind speeds of the northerly weak low-level jet (LLJ) below 320 m at the suburban site were weaker than those at the urban site, and the LLJ heights and depths at the suburban site were lower than those at the urban site. The nocturnal 140 m mean vertical velocities and the variations in vertical velocity at the urban site were larger than those at the suburban site. A nocturnal breeze with a weak LLJ of ~3 m s-1 noticeably offset nocturnal PM transport due to southerly flow and convergence within the northern urban area of Beijing. Characteristics of the nocturnal LLJ, such as start-up time, structure, intensity, and duration, were important factors in determining the decrease in the nocturnal horizontal range and site-based low-level variations in PM.
Impact of Interannual Variation of Synoptic Disturbances on the Tracks and Landfalls of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific
Xingyan ZHOU, Riyu LU, Guanghua CHEN
2018, 35(12): 1469-1477. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8055-0
This study investigates the tropical cyclone (TC) activity associated with the two leading modes of interannual variability in synoptic disturbances. Both leading modes are found to be related to a dipole pattern of TC occurrence between the subtropical western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Therefore, in this study we performed composite analyses on TC tracks and landfalls, based on the cases of combined modes, to highlight the differences. The composite results indicate that these cases are characterized by distinct features of TC tracks and landfalls: more TCs tend to take recurving tracks and attack eastern China, Korea and Japan, or more TCs exhibit straight-moving tracks and hit the Philippines, Vietnam and southern China. Further analyses suggest that these distinctions in the TC prevailing tracks and landfalls can be attributed to the differences in large-scale steering flow and TC genesis location.
Two Types of Flash Drought and Their Connections with Seasonal Drought
Linying WANG, Xing YUAN
2018, 35(12): 1478-1490. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8047-0
Flash drought is a rapidly intensifying drought with abnormally high temperature, which has greatly threatened crop yields and water supply, and aroused wide public concern in a warming climate. However, the preferable hydrometeorological conditions for flash drought and its association with conventional drought at longer time scales remain unclear. Here, we investigate two types of flash drought over China: one is high-temperature driven (Type I), while the other is water-deficit driven (Type II). Results show that the frequencies of the two types of flash drought averaged over China during the growing season are comparable. Type I flash drought tends to occur over southern China, where moisture supply is sufficient, while Type II is more likely to occur over semi-arid regions such as northern China. Both types of flash drought increase significantly (p0.01) during 1979-2010, with a doubled rise in Type I as compared with Type II. Composite analysis shows that high temperature quickly increases evapotranspiration (ET) and reduces soil moisture from two pentads before the onset of Type I flash drought. In contrast, there are larger soil moisture deficits two pentads before the onset of Type II flash drought, leading to a decrease in ET and increase in temperature. For flash drought associated with seasonal drought, there is a greater likelihood of occurrence during the onset and recovery phases of seasonal drought, suggesting perfect conditions for flash drought during transition periods. This study provides a basis for the early warning of flash drought by connecting multiscale drought phenomena.
Estimating the Predictability Limit of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data
Quanjia ZHONG, Lifeng ZHANG, Jianping LI, Ruiqiang DING, Jie FENG
2018, 35(12): 1491-1504. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8008-7
In this study, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific (WNP) basin is about 102 h, and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 h. The predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-, medium-, and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h, 120 h, and 132 h, respectively. The predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location, lifetime, and intensity, and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely related. The more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP (EWNP), whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP (WWNP) and the South China Sea (SCS). The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs, which are generated mainly in the EWNP, have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and SCS. Furthermore, the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently available. Further work is needed, employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks.
Impact of Mid- and Upper-Level Dry Air on Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Intensification: A Modeling Study of Durian (2001)
Yaping WANG, Yongjie HUANG, Xiaopeng CUI
2018, 35(12): 1505-1521. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8039-0
The impact of mid- and upper-level dry air, represented by low relative humidity (RH) values, on the genesis of tropical cyclone (TC) Durian (2001) in the South China Sea was investigated by a series of numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The mid-level RH was lowered in different regions relative to TC Durian (2001)'s genesis location. Results suggest that the location of dry air was important to Durian (2001)'s genesis and intensification. The rapid development of the TC was accompanied by sustained near-saturated mid- and upper-level air, whereas low humidity decelerated its development. Water vapor budget analysis showed that moisture at mid and upper levels was mainly supplied by the vertical convergence of moisture flux and the divergence terms, and consumed by the condensation process. The horizontal convergence of moisture flux term supplied moisture in the air moistening process but consumed moisture in the air drying process. With a dryer mid- and upper-level environment, convective and stratiform precipitation were both inhibited. The upward mass fluxes and the diabatic heating rates associated with these two precipitation types were also suppressed. Generally, convection played the dominant role, since the impact of the stratiform process on vertical mass transportation and diabatic heating was much weaker. The vorticity budget showed that the negative vorticity convergence term, which was closely related to the inhibited convection, caused the vorticity to decrease above the lower troposphere in a dryer environment. The negative vorticity tendency is suggested to slow down the vertical coherence and the development rate of TCs.
Probabilistic Automatic Outlier Detection for Surface Air Quality Measurements from the China National Environmental Monitoring Network
Huangjian WU, Xiao TANG, Zifa WANG, Lin WU, Miaomiao LU, Lianfang WEI, Jiang ZHU
2018, 35(12): 1522-1532. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8067-9
Although quality assurance and quality control procedures are routinely applied in most air quality networks, outliers can still occur due to instrument malfunctions, the influence of harsh environments and the limitation of measuring methods. Such outliers pose challenges for data-powered applications such as data assimilation, statistical analysis of pollution characteristics and ensemble forecasting. Here, a fully automatic outlier detection method was developed based on the probability of residuals, which are the discrepancies between the observed and the estimated concentration values. The estimation can be conducted using filtering——or regressions when appropriate——to discriminate four types of outliers characterized by temporal and spatial inconsistency, instrument-induced low variances, periodic calibration exceptions, and less PM10 than PM2.5 in concentration observations, respectively. This probabilistic method was applied to detect all four types of outliers in hourly surface measurements of six pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO and O3) from 1436 stations of the China National Environmental Monitoring Network during 2014-16. Among the measurements, 0.65%-5.68% are marked as outliers, with PM10 and CO more prone to outliers. Our method successfully identifies a trend of decreasing outliers from 2014 to 2016, which corresponds to known improvements in the quality assurance and quality control procedures of the China National Environmental Monitoring Network. The outliers can have a significant impact on the annual mean concentrations of PM2.5, with differences exceeding 10 μg m-3 at 66 sites.
The Spatial and Temporal Variability of Global Stratospheric Gravity Waves and Their Activity during Sudden Stratospheric Warming Revealed by COSMIC Measurements
Xiaohua XU, Daocheng YU, Jia LUO
2018, 35(12): 1533-1546. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-5053-1
This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of global stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) and the characteristics of GW activity during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) using the GPS radio occultation measurements from the COSMIC mission during September 2006 to May 2013. Corresponding to the COSMIC RO observational window and analysis method, GW potential energy (Ep) with vertical scales no shorter than ~2 km is resolved. It is found that the distributions of GW Ep over 20-30 km and 30-38 km show similar spatial and seasonal variations. The variations of GW Ep with altitude and latitude along the westerly wind are identified in different seasons over 60°-80°W. In the middle and high latitudes, seasonal cycles are distinct in the time-latitude and time-altitude distributions of GW activities, which show larger Ep in winters when westerly wind dominates and smaller Ep in summers when easterly wind dominates. The influence of quasi-biennial oscillation on GW activity is recognized in the tropics. GW Ep enhances closely following the occurrence of minor SSW events; while during major events, GW Ep may not enhance, and sometimes may even weaken, in the regions where reversals of zonal wind occur, probably caused by the filtering impact of the 0 m s-1 wind level on the GWs.
A Limb Correction Method for the Microwave Temperature Sounder 2 and Its Applications
Xiaoxu TIAN, Xiaolei ZOU, Shengpeng YANG
2018, 35(12): 1547-1552. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8092-8
The Microwave Temperature Sounder 2 (MWTS-2) is a cross-track radiometer that has 13 channels of sampling radiances emitted from different vertical levels of the atmosphere. Because of the varying scan angles of each field of view within a scan line, observations from the MWTS-2 are subject to strong scan-position-dependent features, i.e., the limb effect. When examining brightness temperatures (TBs), weather signals observed at every temperature-sounding channel are often concealed by scan-dependent patterns. This study, therefore, proposes a limb correction method to remove scan-dependent features so that the underlying weather signals can be uncovered. Limb-corrected TBs can be used to monitor large-scale patterns over the globe as well as extreme weather events such as typhoons. Limb-corrected TBs are also more correlated with atmospheric physical variables such as temperature and liquid water path.