2018 Vol. 35, No. 9
Display Method:
2018, 35(9): 1101-1113.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7300-x
Abstract:
Evaluating a climate model's fidelity (ability to simulate observed climate) is a critical step in establishing confidence in the model's suitability for future climate projections, and in tuning climate model parameters. Model developers use their judgement in determining which trade-offs between different aspects of model fidelity are acceptable. However, little is known about the degree of consensus in these evaluations, and whether experts use the same criteria when different scientific objectives are defined. Here, we report on results from a broad community survey studying expert assessments of the relative importance of different output variables when evaluating a global atmospheric model's mean climate. We find that experts adjust their ratings of variable importance in response to the scientific objective, for instance, scientists rate surface wind stress as significantly more important for Southern Ocean climate than for the water cycle in the Asian watershed. There is greater consensus on the importance of certain variables (e.g., shortwave cloud forcing) than others (e.g., aerosol optical depth). We find few differences in expert consensus between respondents with greater or less climate modeling experience, and no statistically significant differences between the responses of climate model developers and users. The concise variable lists and community ratings reported here provide baseline descriptive data on current expert understanding of certain aspects of model evaluation, and can serve as a starting point for further investigation, as well as developing more sophisticated evaluation and scoring criteria with respect to specific scientific objectives.
Evaluating a climate model's fidelity (ability to simulate observed climate) is a critical step in establishing confidence in the model's suitability for future climate projections, and in tuning climate model parameters. Model developers use their judgement in determining which trade-offs between different aspects of model fidelity are acceptable. However, little is known about the degree of consensus in these evaluations, and whether experts use the same criteria when different scientific objectives are defined. Here, we report on results from a broad community survey studying expert assessments of the relative importance of different output variables when evaluating a global atmospheric model's mean climate. We find that experts adjust their ratings of variable importance in response to the scientific objective, for instance, scientists rate surface wind stress as significantly more important for Southern Ocean climate than for the water cycle in the Asian watershed. There is greater consensus on the importance of certain variables (e.g., shortwave cloud forcing) than others (e.g., aerosol optical depth). We find few differences in expert consensus between respondents with greater or less climate modeling experience, and no statistically significant differences between the responses of climate model developers and users. The concise variable lists and community ratings reported here provide baseline descriptive data on current expert understanding of certain aspects of model evaluation, and can serve as a starting point for further investigation, as well as developing more sophisticated evaluation and scoring criteria with respect to specific scientific objectives.
2018, 35(9): 1114-1128.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7231-y
Abstract:
This study demonstrates the two different Rossby wave train (RWT) patterns related to the developing/decaying upper atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau (TPUHS) in boreal summer. The results show that the summer TPUHS is dominated by quasi-biweekly variability, particularly from late July to mid-August when the subtropical jet steadily stays to the north of the TP. During the developing period of TPUHS events, the intensifying TPUHS corresponds to an anomalous upper-tropospheric high over the TP, which acts as the main source of a RWT that extends northeastward, via North China, the central Pacific and Alaska, to the northeastern Pacific region. This RWT breaks up while the anomalous high is temporarily replaced by an anomalous low due to the further deepened convective heating around the TPUHS peak. However, this anomalous low, though existing for only three to four days due to the counteracting dynamical effects of the persisting upper/lower divergence/convergence over the TP, acts as a new wave source to connect to an anomalous dynamical high over the Baikal region. Whilst the anomalous low is diminishing rapidly, this Baikal high becomes the main source of a new RWT, which develops eastward over the North Pacific region till around eight days after the TPUHS peak. Nevertheless, the anomaly centers along this decaying-TPUHS-related RWT mostly appear much weaker than those along the previous RWT. Therefore, their impacts on circulation and weather differ considerably from the developing to the decaying period of TPUHS events.
This study demonstrates the two different Rossby wave train (RWT) patterns related to the developing/decaying upper atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau (TPUHS) in boreal summer. The results show that the summer TPUHS is dominated by quasi-biweekly variability, particularly from late July to mid-August when the subtropical jet steadily stays to the north of the TP. During the developing period of TPUHS events, the intensifying TPUHS corresponds to an anomalous upper-tropospheric high over the TP, which acts as the main source of a RWT that extends northeastward, via North China, the central Pacific and Alaska, to the northeastern Pacific region. This RWT breaks up while the anomalous high is temporarily replaced by an anomalous low due to the further deepened convective heating around the TPUHS peak. However, this anomalous low, though existing for only three to four days due to the counteracting dynamical effects of the persisting upper/lower divergence/convergence over the TP, acts as a new wave source to connect to an anomalous dynamical high over the Baikal region. Whilst the anomalous low is diminishing rapidly, this Baikal high becomes the main source of a new RWT, which develops eastward over the North Pacific region till around eight days after the TPUHS peak. Nevertheless, the anomaly centers along this decaying-TPUHS-related RWT mostly appear much weaker than those along the previous RWT. Therefore, their impacts on circulation and weather differ considerably from the developing to the decaying period of TPUHS events.
2018, 35(9): 1129-1136.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7226-3
Abstract:
Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) in northern Canada during the spring-summer season (March-July) from 1979-2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring-summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring-summer mean temperature [0.4°C-1°C (10 yr)-1] and the RPR [2%-6% (10 yr)-1] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979-2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada.
Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) in northern Canada during the spring-summer season (March-July) from 1979-2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring-summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring-summer mean temperature [0.4°C-1°C (10 yr)-1] and the RPR [2%-6% (10 yr)-1] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979-2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada.
2018, 35(9): 1137-1144.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7195-6
Abstract:
Based on high-quality data from eddy covariance measurements at the Qomolangma Monitoring and Research Station for Atmosphere and Environment (QOMS) and the Southeast Tibet Monitoring and Research Station for Environment (SETS), near-ground free convection conditions (FCCs) and their characteristics are investigated. At QOMS, strong thermal effects accompanied by lower wind speeds can easily trigger the occurrence of FCCs. The change of circulation from prevailing katabatic glacier winds to prevailing upslope winds and the oscillation of upslope winds due to cloud cover are the two main causes of decreases in wind speed at QOMS. The analysis of results from SETS shows that the most important trigger mechanism of FCCs is strong solar heating. Turbulence structural analysis using wavelet transform indicates that lower-frequency turbulence near the ground emerges from the detected FCCs both at QOMS and at SETS. It should be noted that the heterogeneous underlying surface at SETS creates large-scale turbulence during periods without the occurrence of FCCs. Regarding datasets of all seasons, the distribution of FCCs presents different characteristics during monsoonal and non-monsoonal periods.
Based on high-quality data from eddy covariance measurements at the Qomolangma Monitoring and Research Station for Atmosphere and Environment (QOMS) and the Southeast Tibet Monitoring and Research Station for Environment (SETS), near-ground free convection conditions (FCCs) and their characteristics are investigated. At QOMS, strong thermal effects accompanied by lower wind speeds can easily trigger the occurrence of FCCs. The change of circulation from prevailing katabatic glacier winds to prevailing upslope winds and the oscillation of upslope winds due to cloud cover are the two main causes of decreases in wind speed at QOMS. The analysis of results from SETS shows that the most important trigger mechanism of FCCs is strong solar heating. Turbulence structural analysis using wavelet transform indicates that lower-frequency turbulence near the ground emerges from the detected FCCs both at QOMS and at SETS. It should be noted that the heterogeneous underlying surface at SETS creates large-scale turbulence during periods without the occurrence of FCCs. Regarding datasets of all seasons, the distribution of FCCs presents different characteristics during monsoonal and non-monsoonal periods.
2018, 35(9): 1145-1159.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7212-9
Abstract:
Historical haze episodes (2013-16) in Guangzhou were examined and classified according to synoptic weather systems. Four types of weather systems were found to be unfavorable, among which "foreside of a cold front" (FC) and "sea high pressure" (SP) were the most frequent (>75% of the total). Targeted case studies were conducted based on an FC-affected event and an SP-affected event with the aim of understanding the characteristics of the contributions of source regions to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Guangzhou. Four kinds of contributions——namely, emissions outside Guangdong Province (super-region), emissions from the Pearl River Delta region (PRD region), emissions from Guangzhou-Foshan-Shenzhen (GFS region), and emissions from Guangzhou (local)——were investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The results showed that the source region contribution differed with different weather systems. SP was a stagnant weather condition, and the source region contribution ratio showed that the local region was a major contributor (37%), while the PRD region, GFS region and the super-region only contributed 8%, 2.8% and 7%, respectively, to PM2.5 concentrations. By contrast, FC favored regional transport. The super-region became noticeable, contributing 34.8%, while the local region decreased to 12%. A simple method was proposed to quantify the relative impact of meteorology and emissions. Meteorology had a 35% impact, compared with an impact of -18% for emissions, when comparing the FC-affected event with that of the SP. The results from this study can provide guidance to policymakers for the implementation of effective control strategies.
Historical haze episodes (2013-16) in Guangzhou were examined and classified according to synoptic weather systems. Four types of weather systems were found to be unfavorable, among which "foreside of a cold front" (FC) and "sea high pressure" (SP) were the most frequent (>75% of the total). Targeted case studies were conducted based on an FC-affected event and an SP-affected event with the aim of understanding the characteristics of the contributions of source regions to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Guangzhou. Four kinds of contributions——namely, emissions outside Guangdong Province (super-region), emissions from the Pearl River Delta region (PRD region), emissions from Guangzhou-Foshan-Shenzhen (GFS region), and emissions from Guangzhou (local)——were investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The results showed that the source region contribution differed with different weather systems. SP was a stagnant weather condition, and the source region contribution ratio showed that the local region was a major contributor (37%), while the PRD region, GFS region and the super-region only contributed 8%, 2.8% and 7%, respectively, to PM2.5 concentrations. By contrast, FC favored regional transport. The super-region became noticeable, contributing 34.8%, while the local region decreased to 12%. A simple method was proposed to quantify the relative impact of meteorology and emissions. Meteorology had a 35% impact, compared with an impact of -18% for emissions, when comparing the FC-affected event with that of the SP. The results from this study can provide guidance to policymakers for the implementation of effective control strategies.
2018, 35(9): 1160-1176.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7199-2
Abstract:
The structural evolution of Typhoon Morakot (2009) during its passage across Taiwan was investigated with the WRF model. When Morakot approached eastern Taiwan, the low-level center was gradually filled by the Central Mountain Range (CMR), while the outer wind had flowed around the northern tip of the CMR and met the southwesterly monsoon to result in a strong confluent flow over the southern Taiwan Strait. When the confluent flow was blocked by the southern CMR, a secondary center (SC) without a warm core formed over southwestern Taiwan. During the northward movement of the SC along the west slope of the CMR, the warm air produced within the wake flow over the northwestern CMR was continuously advected into the SC, contributing to the generation of a warm core inside the SC. Consequently, a well-defined SC with a warm core, closed circulation and almost symmetric structure was produced over central western Taiwan, and then it coupled with Morakot's mid-level center after crossing the CMR to reestablish a new and vertically stacked typhoon. Therefore, the SC inside Morakot was initially generated by a dynamic interaction among the TC's cyclonic wind, southwesterly wind and orographic effects of the CMR, while the thermodynamic process associated with the downslope adiabatic warming effect documented by previous studies supported its development to be a well-defined SC. In summary, the evolution of the SC in this study is not in contradiction with previous studies, but just a complement, especially in the initial formation stage.
The structural evolution of Typhoon Morakot (2009) during its passage across Taiwan was investigated with the WRF model. When Morakot approached eastern Taiwan, the low-level center was gradually filled by the Central Mountain Range (CMR), while the outer wind had flowed around the northern tip of the CMR and met the southwesterly monsoon to result in a strong confluent flow over the southern Taiwan Strait. When the confluent flow was blocked by the southern CMR, a secondary center (SC) without a warm core formed over southwestern Taiwan. During the northward movement of the SC along the west slope of the CMR, the warm air produced within the wake flow over the northwestern CMR was continuously advected into the SC, contributing to the generation of a warm core inside the SC. Consequently, a well-defined SC with a warm core, closed circulation and almost symmetric structure was produced over central western Taiwan, and then it coupled with Morakot's mid-level center after crossing the CMR to reestablish a new and vertically stacked typhoon. Therefore, the SC inside Morakot was initially generated by a dynamic interaction among the TC's cyclonic wind, southwesterly wind and orographic effects of the CMR, while the thermodynamic process associated with the downslope adiabatic warming effect documented by previous studies supported its development to be a well-defined SC. In summary, the evolution of the SC in this study is not in contradiction with previous studies, but just a complement, especially in the initial formation stage.
2018, 35(9): 1177-1188.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7225-4
Abstract:
Tropical cyclones (TCs) constitute one of the major atmospheric activities affecting the air quality of the Pearl River Delta region. In this study, the impact of TCs on air quality in Hong Kong during the TC active season (July-October) from 2000 to 2015 is investigated. It is found that 57.5% of days with concentration of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) above the 90th percentile are related to TC activity. TCs in three regions, located to the east, southeast, and southwest of Hong Kong, have obvious impacts on pollutant concentration. When TCs are located east of Hong Kong near Taiwan, 65.5%/38.7% of the days have high or extremely high PM10/ozone (O3) levels, which are associated with northerly wind, sinking motion, and relatively low precipitation. When TCs are located southeast of Hong Kong, 48.1%/58.2% of the days have high pollution levels, associated mainly with continental air mass transport. When TCs are south or west of Hong Kong, only 20.8%/16.9% of the days have high PM10/O3 levels, and the air quality in Hong Kong is generally good or normal due to TC-associated precipitation, oceanic air mass transport, and an enhanced rising motion. The higher chance of high O3 days when TCs are present between Hong Kong and Taiwan, possibly due to lower-than-normal precipitation along the east coast of China under TC circulation. The results in this study highlight the important influence of TC position and associated atmospheric circulations on the air quality in Hong Kong.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) constitute one of the major atmospheric activities affecting the air quality of the Pearl River Delta region. In this study, the impact of TCs on air quality in Hong Kong during the TC active season (July-October) from 2000 to 2015 is investigated. It is found that 57.5% of days with concentration of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) above the 90th percentile are related to TC activity. TCs in three regions, located to the east, southeast, and southwest of Hong Kong, have obvious impacts on pollutant concentration. When TCs are located east of Hong Kong near Taiwan, 65.5%/38.7% of the days have high or extremely high PM10/ozone (O3) levels, which are associated with northerly wind, sinking motion, and relatively low precipitation. When TCs are located southeast of Hong Kong, 48.1%/58.2% of the days have high pollution levels, associated mainly with continental air mass transport. When TCs are south or west of Hong Kong, only 20.8%/16.9% of the days have high PM10/O3 levels, and the air quality in Hong Kong is generally good or normal due to TC-associated precipitation, oceanic air mass transport, and an enhanced rising motion. The higher chance of high O3 days when TCs are present between Hong Kong and Taiwan, possibly due to lower-than-normal precipitation along the east coast of China under TC circulation. The results in this study highlight the important influence of TC position and associated atmospheric circulations on the air quality in Hong Kong.
2018, 35(9): 1189-1204.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7175-x
Abstract:
The South China Sea (SCS) is an eddy-active area. Composite analyses based on 438 mesoscale ocean eddies during 2000-2012 revealed the status of the atmospheric boundary layer is influenced remarkably by such eddies. The results showed cold-core cyclonic (warm-core anticyclonic) eddies tend to cool (warm) the overlying atmosphere and cause surface winds to decelerate (accelerate). More than 5% of the total variance of turbulent heat fluxes, surface wind speed and evaporation rate are induced by mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, mesoscale eddies locally affect the columnar water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate. Dynamical analyses indicated that both variations of atmospheric boundary layer stability and sea level pressure are responsible for atmospheric anomalies over mesoscale eddies. To reveal further details about the mechanisms of atmospheric responses to mesoscale eddies, atmospheric manifestations over a pair of cold and warm eddies in the southwestern SCS were simulated. Eddy-induced heat flux anomalies lead to changes in atmospheric stability. Thus, anomalous turbulence kinetic energy and friction velocity arise over the eddy dipole, which reduce (enhance) the vertical momentum transport over the cold (warm) eddy, resulting in the decrease (increase) of sea surface wind. Diagnoses of the model's momentum balance suggested that wind speed anomalies directly over the eddy dipole are dominated by vertical mixing terms within the atmospheric boundary layer, while wind anomalies on the edges of eddies are produced by atmospheric pressure gradient forces and atmospheric horizontal advection terms.
The South China Sea (SCS) is an eddy-active area. Composite analyses based on 438 mesoscale ocean eddies during 2000-2012 revealed the status of the atmospheric boundary layer is influenced remarkably by such eddies. The results showed cold-core cyclonic (warm-core anticyclonic) eddies tend to cool (warm) the overlying atmosphere and cause surface winds to decelerate (accelerate). More than 5% of the total variance of turbulent heat fluxes, surface wind speed and evaporation rate are induced by mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, mesoscale eddies locally affect the columnar water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate. Dynamical analyses indicated that both variations of atmospheric boundary layer stability and sea level pressure are responsible for atmospheric anomalies over mesoscale eddies. To reveal further details about the mechanisms of atmospheric responses to mesoscale eddies, atmospheric manifestations over a pair of cold and warm eddies in the southwestern SCS were simulated. Eddy-induced heat flux anomalies lead to changes in atmospheric stability. Thus, anomalous turbulence kinetic energy and friction velocity arise over the eddy dipole, which reduce (enhance) the vertical momentum transport over the cold (warm) eddy, resulting in the decrease (increase) of sea surface wind. Diagnoses of the model's momentum balance suggested that wind speed anomalies directly over the eddy dipole are dominated by vertical mixing terms within the atmospheric boundary layer, while wind anomalies on the edges of eddies are produced by atmospheric pressure gradient forces and atmospheric horizontal advection terms.
2018, 35(9): 1205-1215.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7229-0
Abstract:
In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency solar forcing on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by analyzing a four-member ensemble of 600-year simulations performed with HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3). We find that the EAWM is strengthened when total solar irradiance (TSI) increases on the multidecadal time scale. The model results indicate that positive TSI anomalies can result in the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, causing negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic. Especially for the subtropical North Atlantic, the negative SST anomalies can excite an anomalous Rossby wave train that moves from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea and finally to Siberia. In this process, the positive sea-ice feedback over the Greenland Sea further enhances the Rossby wave. The wave train can reach the Siberian region, and strengthen the Siberian high. As a result, low-level East Asian winter circulation is strengthened and the surface air temperature in East Asia decreases. Overall, when solar forcing is stronger on the multidecadal time scale, the EAWM is typically stronger than normal. Finally, a similar linkage can be observed between the EAWM and solar forcing during the period 1850-1970.
In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency solar forcing on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by analyzing a four-member ensemble of 600-year simulations performed with HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3). We find that the EAWM is strengthened when total solar irradiance (TSI) increases on the multidecadal time scale. The model results indicate that positive TSI anomalies can result in the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, causing negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic. Especially for the subtropical North Atlantic, the negative SST anomalies can excite an anomalous Rossby wave train that moves from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea and finally to Siberia. In this process, the positive sea-ice feedback over the Greenland Sea further enhances the Rossby wave. The wave train can reach the Siberian region, and strengthen the Siberian high. As a result, low-level East Asian winter circulation is strengthened and the surface air temperature in East Asia decreases. Overall, when solar forcing is stronger on the multidecadal time scale, the EAWM is typically stronger than normal. Finally, a similar linkage can be observed between the EAWM and solar forcing during the period 1850-1970.
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