2023 Vol. 40, No. 8
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2023, 40(8): 1339-1361.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2379-0
Abstract:
Atmospheric chemistry research has been growing rapidly in China in the last 25 years since the concept of the “air pollution complex” was first proposed by Professor Xiaoyan TANG in 1997. For papers published in 2021 on air pollution (only papers included in the Web of Science Core Collection database were considered), more than 24 000 papers were authored or co-authored by scientists working in China. In this paper, we review a limited number of representative and significant studies on atmospheric chemistry in China in the last few years, including studies on (1) sources and emission inventories, (2) atmospheric chemical processes, (3) interactions of air pollution with meteorology, weather and climate, (4) interactions between the biosphere and atmosphere, and (5) data assimilation. The intention was not to provide a complete review of all progress made in the last few years, but rather to serve as a starting point for learning more about atmospheric chemistry research in China. The advances reviewed in this paper have enabled a theoretical framework for theair pollution complex to be established, provided robust scientific support to highly successful air pollution control policies in China, and created great opportunities in education, training, and career development for many graduate students and young scientists. This paper further highlights that developing and low-income countries that are heavily affected by air pollution can benefit from these research advances, whilst at the same time acknowledging that many challenges and opportunities still remain in atmospheric chemistry research in China, to hopefully be addressed over the next few decades.
Atmospheric chemistry research has been growing rapidly in China in the last 25 years since the concept of the “air pollution complex” was first proposed by Professor Xiaoyan TANG in 1997. For papers published in 2021 on air pollution (only papers included in the Web of Science Core Collection database were considered), more than 24 000 papers were authored or co-authored by scientists working in China. In this paper, we review a limited number of representative and significant studies on atmospheric chemistry in China in the last few years, including studies on (1) sources and emission inventories, (2) atmospheric chemical processes, (3) interactions of air pollution with meteorology, weather and climate, (4) interactions between the biosphere and atmosphere, and (5) data assimilation. The intention was not to provide a complete review of all progress made in the last few years, but rather to serve as a starting point for learning more about atmospheric chemistry research in China. The advances reviewed in this paper have enabled a theoretical framework for theair pollution complex to be established, provided robust scientific support to highly successful air pollution control policies in China, and created great opportunities in education, training, and career development for many graduate students and young scientists. This paper further highlights that developing and low-income countries that are heavily affected by air pollution can benefit from these research advances, whilst at the same time acknowledging that many challenges and opportunities still remain in atmospheric chemistry research in China, to hopefully be addressed over the next few decades.
2023, 40(8): 1362-1378.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2327-z
Abstract:
The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research.
The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research.
2023, 40(8): 1379-1400.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2341-1
Abstract:
In this review, instead of summarizing all the advances and progress achieved in stratospheric research, the main advances and new developments in stratosphere–troposphere coupling and stratospheric chemistry–climate interactions are summarized, and some outstanding issues and grand challenges are discussed. A consensus has been reached that the stratospheric state is an important source of improving the predictability of the troposphere on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales and beyond. However, applying stratospheric signals in operational S2S forecast models remains a challenge because of model deficiencies and the complexities of the underlying mechanisms of stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Stratospheric chemistry, which controls the magnitude and distribution of many important climate-forcing agents, plays a critical role in global climate change. Convincing evidence has been found that stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery have caused significant tropospheric climate changes, and more recent studies have revealed that stratospheric ozone variations can even exert an impact on SSTs and sea ice. The climatic impacts of stratospheric aerosols and water vapor are also important. Although their quantitative contributions to radiative forcing have been reasonably well quantified, there still exist large uncertainties in their long-term impacts on climate. The advances and new levels of understanding presented in this review suggest that whole-atmosphere interactions need to be considered in future for a better and more thorough understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling and its role in climate change.
In this review, instead of summarizing all the advances and progress achieved in stratospheric research, the main advances and new developments in stratosphere–troposphere coupling and stratospheric chemistry–climate interactions are summarized, and some outstanding issues and grand challenges are discussed. A consensus has been reached that the stratospheric state is an important source of improving the predictability of the troposphere on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales and beyond. However, applying stratospheric signals in operational S2S forecast models remains a challenge because of model deficiencies and the complexities of the underlying mechanisms of stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Stratospheric chemistry, which controls the magnitude and distribution of many important climate-forcing agents, plays a critical role in global climate change. Convincing evidence has been found that stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery have caused significant tropospheric climate changes, and more recent studies have revealed that stratospheric ozone variations can even exert an impact on SSTs and sea ice. The climatic impacts of stratospheric aerosols and water vapor are also important. Although their quantitative contributions to radiative forcing have been reasonably well quantified, there still exist large uncertainties in their long-term impacts on climate. The advances and new levels of understanding presented in this review suggest that whole-atmosphere interactions need to be considered in future for a better and more thorough understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling and its role in climate change.
2023, 40(8): 1401-1428.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2323-3
Abstract:
During the recent four decades since 1980, a series of modern climate satellites were launched, allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters, especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain. China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions. Many observations were conducted during this period, accompanied by improved Earth climate models, leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes. Here, we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade. The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate, associated with a rapid decline in sea ice, a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification. The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades, with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss, while tropical–polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions. Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system. The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes. Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification. Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes, as reviewed in this paper.
During the recent four decades since 1980, a series of modern climate satellites were launched, allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters, especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain. China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions. Many observations were conducted during this period, accompanied by improved Earth climate models, leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes. Here, we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade. The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate, associated with a rapid decline in sea ice, a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification. The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades, with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss, while tropical–polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions. Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system. The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes. Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification. Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes, as reviewed in this paper.
2023, 40(8): 1429-1456.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2266-8
Abstract:
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system. In this paper, the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed, with a focus on the past several years. The achievements are summarized into the following topics: (1) the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the East Asian winter monsoon; and (4) the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, new results are highlighted, including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and South China Sea; the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020, which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes; the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions, which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability (mostly the Arctic Oscillation); and the accelerated warming over South Asia, which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming, is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999. A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system. In this paper, the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed, with a focus on the past several years. The achievements are summarized into the following topics: (1) the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the East Asian winter monsoon; and (4) the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, new results are highlighted, including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and South China Sea; the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020, which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes; the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions, which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability (mostly the Arctic Oscillation); and the accelerated warming over South Asia, which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming, is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999. A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.
2023, 40(8): 1457-1484.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2280-x
Abstract:
Atmospheric electricity is composed of a series of electric phenomena in the atmosphere. Significant advances in atmospheric electricity research conducted in China have been achieved in recent years. In this paper, the research progress on atmospheric electricity achieved in China during 2019–22 is reviewed focusing on the following aspects: (1) lightning detection and location techniques, (2) thunderstorm electricity, (3) lightning forecasting methods and techniques, (4) physical processes of lightning discharge, (5) high energy emissions and effects of thunderstorms on the upper atmosphere, and (6) the effect of aerosol on lightning.
Atmospheric electricity is composed of a series of electric phenomena in the atmosphere. Significant advances in atmospheric electricity research conducted in China have been achieved in recent years. In this paper, the research progress on atmospheric electricity achieved in China during 2019–22 is reviewed focusing on the following aspects: (1) lightning detection and location techniques, (2) thunderstorm electricity, (3) lightning forecasting methods and techniques, (4) physical processes of lightning discharge, (5) high energy emissions and effects of thunderstorms on the upper atmosphere, and (6) the effect of aerosol on lightning.
2023, 40(8): 1485-1500.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2360-y
Abstract:
A record-breaking precipitation event, with a maximum 24-h (1-h) precipitation of 624 mm (201.9 mm) observed at Zhengzhou Weather Station, occurred in Henan Province, China, in July 2021. However, all global operational forecast models failed to predict the intensity and location of maximum precipitation for this event. The unexpected heavy rainfall caused 398 deaths and 120.06 billion RMB of economic losses. The high-societal-impact of this event has drawn much attention from the research community. This article provides a research review of the event from the perspectives of observations, analysis, dynamics, predictability, and the connection with climate warming and urbanization. Global reanalysis data show that there was an anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that resulted in abundant moisture supply to the region of interest. Three mesoscale systems (a mesoscale low pressure system, a barrier jet, and downslope gravity current) were found by recent high-resolution model simulation and data assimilation studies to have contributed to the local intensification of the rainstorm. Furthermore, observational analysis has suggested that an abrupt increase in graupel through microphysical processes after the sequential merging of three convective cells contributed to the record-breaking precipitation. Although these findings have aided in our understanding of the extreme rainfall event, preliminary analysis indicated that the practical predictability of the extreme rainfall for this event was rather low. The contrary influences of climate warming and urbanization on precipitation extremes as revealed by two studies could add further challenges to the predictability. We conclude that data sharing and collaboration between meteorological and hydrological researchers will be crucial in future research on high-impact weather events.
A record-breaking precipitation event, with a maximum 24-h (1-h) precipitation of 624 mm (201.9 mm) observed at Zhengzhou Weather Station, occurred in Henan Province, China, in July 2021. However, all global operational forecast models failed to predict the intensity and location of maximum precipitation for this event. The unexpected heavy rainfall caused 398 deaths and 120.06 billion RMB of economic losses. The high-societal-impact of this event has drawn much attention from the research community. This article provides a research review of the event from the perspectives of observations, analysis, dynamics, predictability, and the connection with climate warming and urbanization. Global reanalysis data show that there was an anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that resulted in abundant moisture supply to the region of interest. Three mesoscale systems (a mesoscale low pressure system, a barrier jet, and downslope gravity current) were found by recent high-resolution model simulation and data assimilation studies to have contributed to the local intensification of the rainstorm. Furthermore, observational analysis has suggested that an abrupt increase in graupel through microphysical processes after the sequential merging of three convective cells contributed to the record-breaking precipitation. Although these findings have aided in our understanding of the extreme rainfall event, preliminary analysis indicated that the practical predictability of the extreme rainfall for this event was rather low. The contrary influences of climate warming and urbanization on precipitation extremes as revealed by two studies could add further challenges to the predictability. We conclude that data sharing and collaboration between meteorological and hydrological researchers will be crucial in future research on high-impact weather events.
2023, 40(8): 1501-1520.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2335-z
Abstract:
Seamless prediction is a weather–climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days, weeks, months, seasons, years, and decades. Seamless prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years, which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-, medium- and long-term decision-making and planning of the country. Therefore, seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community recently. As Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research, this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent years. Among them, the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects: short- and medium-range weather forecasting, subseasonal-to-seasonal, seasonal-to-interannual, and decadal climate prediction. In terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems, the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments, scientific institutes, and universities in China in recent years are reviewed. Finally, some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed.
Seamless prediction is a weather–climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days, weeks, months, seasons, years, and decades. Seamless prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years, which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-, medium- and long-term decision-making and planning of the country. Therefore, seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community recently. As Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research, this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent years. Among them, the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects: short- and medium-range weather forecasting, subseasonal-to-seasonal, seasonal-to-interannual, and decadal climate prediction. In terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems, the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments, scientific institutes, and universities in China in recent years are reviewed. Finally, some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed.
2023, 40(8): 1521-1547.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2334-0
Abstract:
This article summarizes the progress made in predictability studies of weather and climate in recent years in China, with a main focus on advances in methods to study error growth dynamics and reduce uncertainties in the forecasting of weather and climate. Specifically, it covers (a) advances in methods to study weather and climate predictability dynamics, especially those in nonlinear optimal perturbation methods associated with initial errors and model errors and their applications to ensemble forecasting and target observations, (b) new data assimilation algorithms for initialization of predictions and novel assimilation approaches to neutralize the combined effects of initial and model errors for weather and climate, (c) applications of new statistical approaches to climate predictions, and (d) studies on meso- to small-scale weather system predictability dynamics. Some of the major frontiers and challenges remaining in predictability studies are addressed in this context.
This article summarizes the progress made in predictability studies of weather and climate in recent years in China, with a main focus on advances in methods to study error growth dynamics and reduce uncertainties in the forecasting of weather and climate. Specifically, it covers (a) advances in methods to study weather and climate predictability dynamics, especially those in nonlinear optimal perturbation methods associated with initial errors and model errors and their applications to ensemble forecasting and target observations, (b) new data assimilation algorithms for initialization of predictions and novel assimilation approaches to neutralize the combined effects of initial and model errors for weather and climate, (c) applications of new statistical approaches to climate predictions, and (d) studies on meso- to small-scale weather system predictability dynamics. Some of the major frontiers and challenges remaining in predictability studies are addressed in this context.
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