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Volume 11 Issue 4

Oct.  1994

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 1994 >  11(4): 463-469

Seasonal Variation Features of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks with Their Predictability

  • 1.

    Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China,Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China


doi: 10.1007/BF02658167

  • Analysis is done or monthly and seasonal variations as climatic features of the tracks from 1196 tropical cyclones originating in the western North Pacific over the period 1949 to 1980, followed by the investigation of 301 onland cy?clone tracks over China mainland in terms of methodology for nonlinear system, Obtained by computing the accumu?lated distance distribution function of the tracks is the characteristic chaos quantity for the related dynamic systems and then the fractual dimensionality d = 4.86 and Kolmogorov entropy approximation K2 = 0.0164, thereby leading to the predictability time scale = 2.54 days. It is found that the reference path among the onland typhoon No.23 of 1971, or Bess in the international nomenclature. Our results could be of operational use as a kind of reference.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 October 1994
    Manuscript revised: 10 October 1994
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Seasonal Variation Features of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks with Their Predictability

    • 1. Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China,Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China
    • Manuscript received: 1994-10-10
    • Manuscript revised: 1994-10-10

    Abstract: Analysis is done or monthly and seasonal variations as climatic features of the tracks from 1196 tropical cyclones originating in the western North Pacific over the period 1949 to 1980, followed by the investigation of 301 onland cy?clone tracks over China mainland in terms of methodology for nonlinear system, Obtained by computing the accumu?lated distance distribution function of the tracks is the characteristic chaos quantity for the related dynamic systems and then the fractual dimensionality d = 4.86 and Kolmogorov entropy approximation K2 = 0.0164, thereby leading to the predictability time scale = 2.54 days. It is found that the reference path among the onland typhoon No.23 of 1971, or Bess in the international nomenclature. Our results could be of operational use as a kind of reference.

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