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Volume 28 Issue 3

May  2011

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2011 >  28(3): 612-622

El Nino Southern Oscillation as Sporadic Oscillations between Metastable States

  • 1.

    Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA,Department of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065


doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9089-0

  • The main objective of this article is to establish a new mechanism of ENSO, as a self-organizing and self-excitation system, with two highly coupled processes. The first is the oscillation between the two metastable warm (El Nino phase) and cold events (La Nina phase), and the second is the spatiotemporal oscillation of the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The symbiotic interplay between these two processes gives rises the climate variability associated with the ENSO, leads to both the random and deterministic features of the ENSO, and defines a new natural feedback mechanism, which drives the sporadic oscillation of the ENSO. The new mechanism is rigorously derived using a dynamic transition theory developed recently by the authors, which has also been successfully applied to a wide range of problems in nonlinear sciences.
  • [1] Philip E. BETT, Adam A. SCAIFE, Chaofan LI, Chris HEWITT, Nicola GOLDING, Peiqun ZHANG, Nick DUNSTONE, Doug M. SMITH, Hazel E. THORNTON, Riyu LU, Hong-Li REN, 2018: Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 918-926.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7210-y
    [2] WANG Zhiren, WU Dexing, CHEN Xue'en, QIAO Ran, 2013: ENSO Indices and Analyses, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1491-1506.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2238-x
    [3] Xinyi XING, Xianghui FANG, Da PANG, Chaopeng JI, 2024: Seasonal Variation of the Sea Surface Temperature Growth Rate of ENSO, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 465-477.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3005-x
    [4] Xiaofei WU, Jiangyu MAO, 2019: Decadal Changes in Interannual Dependence of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset on ENSO Modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 1404-1416.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9043-8
    [5] LI Gang*, LI Chongyin, TAN Yanke, and BAI Tao, 2014: The Interdecadal Changes of South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature in the Mid-1990s and Their Connections with ENSO, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 66-84.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2280-3
    [6] Yuanhai FU, Zhongda LIN, Tao WANG, 2021: Simulated Relationship between Wintertime ENSO and East Asian Summer Rainfall: From CMIP3 to CMIP6, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 221-236.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0147-y
    [7] Yadi LI, Xichen LI, Juan FENG, Yi ZHOU, Wenzhu WANG, Yurong HOU, 2024: Uncertainties of ENSO-related Regional Hadley Circulation Anomalies within Eight Reanalysis Datasets, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 115-140.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3047-0
    [8] Jingrui YAN, Wenjun ZHANG, Suqiong HU, Feng JIANG, 2024: Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 1691-1703.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3196-1
    [9] FENG Juan*, CHEN Wen, 2014: Interference of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in the Impact of ENSO on the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Decaying Phases, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 344-354.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3118-8
    [10] KANG Xianbiao, HUANG Ronghui, WANG Zhanggui, ZHANG Rong-Hua, 2014: Sensitivity of ENSO Variability to Pacific Freshwater Flux Adjustment in the Community Earth System Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 1009-1021.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-3232-2
    [11] Fei ZHENG, Jianping LI, Ruiqiang DING, 2017: Influence of the Preceding Austral Summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on the Amplitude of ENSO Decay, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 1358-1379.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6339-4
    [12] Ning JIANG, Congwen ZHU, 2021: Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 147-155.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0090-y
    [13] Kaiming HU, Yingxue LIU, Gang HUANG, Zhuoqi HE, Shang-Min LONG, 2020: Contributions to the Interannual Summer Rainfall Variability in the Mountainous Area of Central China and Their Decadal Changes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 259-268.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9099-5
    [14] ZHENG Fei, ZHANG Rong-Hua, ZHU Jiang, , 2014: Effects of Interannual Salinity Variability on the Barrier Layer in the Western-Central Equatorial Pacific: A Diagnostic Analysis from Argo, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 532-542.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3061-8
    [15] Se-Hwan YANG, LI Chaofan, and LU Riyu, 2014: Predictability of Winter Rainfall in South China as Demonstrated by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 779-786.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3172-2
    [16] XUE Feng, ZENG Qingcun, HUANG Ronghui, LI Chongyin, LU Riyu, ZHOU Tianjun, 2015: Recent Advances in Monsoon Studies in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 206-229.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0015-8
    [17] Fei ZHENG, Jin-Yi YU, 2017: Contrasting the Skills and Biases of Deterministic Predictions for the Two Types of El Niño, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 1395-1403.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6324-y
    [18] Xiaomeng SONG, Renhe ZHANG, Xinyao RONG, 2019: Influence of Intraseasonal Oscillation on the Asymmetric Decays of El Niño and La Niña, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, , 779-792.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9029-6
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 May 2011
    Manuscript revised: 10 May 2011
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    El Nino Southern Oscillation as Sporadic Oscillations between Metastable States

    • 1. Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA,Department of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065
    • Manuscript received: 2011-05-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2011-05-10

    Abstract: The main objective of this article is to establish a new mechanism of ENSO, as a self-organizing and self-excitation system, with two highly coupled processes. The first is the oscillation between the two metastable warm (El Nino phase) and cold events (La Nina phase), and the second is the spatiotemporal oscillation of the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The symbiotic interplay between these two processes gives rises the climate variability associated with the ENSO, leads to both the random and deterministic features of the ENSO, and defines a new natural feedback mechanism, which drives the sporadic oscillation of the ENSO. The new mechanism is rigorously derived using a dynamic transition theory developed recently by the authors, which has also been successfully applied to a wide range of problems in nonlinear sciences.

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