The Behaviors of Optimal Precursors during Wintertime Eurasian Blocking Onset

Abstract: In this paper the optimal precursors for wintertime Eurasian blocking onset are acquired by solving a nonlinear optimization problem whose objective function is constructed based on a blocking index with a triangular T21, three-level, quasi-geostrophic global spectral model. The winter climatological state is chosen as the reference basic state. Numerical results show that the optimal precursors are characterized by a baroclinic pattern with a westward tilt with height, which are mainly located upstream of the blocking region. For an optimization time of 5 days, these perturbations are mainly localized over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and continental Europe. With the extension of the optimization time to 8 days, these perturbations are distributed more upstream and extensively in the zonal direction. Wave spectrum analysis reveals that the optimal precursors are composed of not only synoptic-scale (wave numbers 5--18) waves, but planetary-scale (wave numbers 0--4) waves as well. The synoptic-scale optimal precursors are mainly located in the mid-latitude area, while the planetary-scale optimal precursors focus primarily on the high-latitude region. The formation of a strong planetary-scale positive blocking anomaly is accompanied by the reinforcement of synoptic-scale perturbations and further fragmentation into two branches, in which the northern branch is generally stronger than the southern one. The eddy forcing arising from the self-interaction of synoptic-scale disturbances is shown to be crucial in triggering the dipole blocking anomaly, and the planetary-scale optimal precursor provides the initial favorable background conditions for blocking onset.

Keywords:
• nonlinear optimization problem,
• wave spectrum analysis,
• self-interaction