Advanced Search
Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 29 Issue 6

Nov.  2012

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2012 >  29(6): 1374-1389

Changes in Winter Stratospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Scenarios Simulated by the Climate System Model FGOALS-s2

  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029


doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1184-y

  • Diagnosis of changes in the winter stratospheric circulation in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) scenarios simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, second version spectrum (FGOALS-s2), indicates that the model can generally reproduce the present climatology of the stratosphere and can capture the general features of its long-term changes during 1950--2000, including the global stratospheric cooling and the strengthening of the westerly polar jet, though the simulated polar vortex is much cooler, the jet is much stronger, and the projected changes are generally weaker than those revealed by observation data. With the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) effect in the historical simulation from 1850 to 2005 (called the HISTORICAL run) and the two future projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (called the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) from 2006 to 2100, the stratospheric response was generally steady, with an increasing stratospheric cooling and a strengthening polar jet extending equatorward. Correspondingly, the leading oscillation mode, defined as the Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO), exhibited a clear positive trend in each scenario, confirming the steady strengthening of the polar vortex. However, the positive trend of the PVO and the strengthening of the polar jet were not accompanied by decreased planetary-wave dynamical heating, suggesting that the cause of the positive PVO trend and the polar stratospheric cooling trend is probably the radiation cooling effect due to increase in GHGs. Nevertheless, without the long-term linear trend, the temporal variations of the wave dynamic heating, the PVO, and the polar stratospheric temper
  • [1] XIA Kun, WANG Bin, LI Lijuan, SHEN Si, HUANG Wenyu, XU Shiming, DONG Li, LIU Li, 2014: Evaluation of Snow Depth and Snow Cover Fraction Simulated by Two Versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 407-420.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3026-y
    [2] MA Shuangmei, ZHOU Tianjun, 2015: Precipitation Changes in Wet and Dry Seasons over the 20th Century Simulated by Two Versions of the FGOALS Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 839-854.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4136-x
    [3] SONG Yajuan, WANG Lei, LEI Xiaoyan, WANG Xidong, 2015: Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific Simulated by CMIP5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1539-1550.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4162-3
    [4] DONG Siyan, XU Ying, ZHOU Botao, SHI Ying, 2015: Assessment of Indices of Temperature Extremes Simulated by Multiple CMIP5 Models over China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1077-1091.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4152-5
    [5] TIAN Di, GUO Yan*, DONG Wenjie, 2015: Future Changes and Uncertainties in Temperature and Precipitation over China Based on CMIP5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 487-496.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4102-7
    [6] Yuanxin LIU, Lijing CHENG, Yuying PAN, Zhetao TAN, John ABRAHAM, Bin ZHANG, Jiang ZHU, Junqiang SONG, 2022: How Well Do CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models Simulate the Climatological Seasonal Variations in Ocean Salinity?, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1650-1672.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1381-2
    [7] Xiaolei CHEN, Yimin LIU, Guoxiong WU, 2017: Understanding the Surface Temperature Cold Bias in CMIP5 AGCMs over the Tibetan Plateau, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 1447-1460.  doi: 10.1007s00376-017-6326-9
    [8] LIU Yonghe, FENG Jinming, MA Zhuguo, 2014: An Analysis of Historical and Future Temperature Fluctuations over China Based on CMIP5 Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 457-467.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3093-0
    [9] XU Kang, SU Jingzhi, and ZHU Congwen, 2014: The Natural Oscillation of Two Types of ENSO Events Based on Analyses of CMIP5 Model Control Runs, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 801-813.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3153-5
    [10] YANG Shili, FENG Jinming, DONG Wenjie, CHOU Jieming, 2014: Analyses of Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5 Historical and Future Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 1209-1220.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-3119-2
    [11] Yuanhai FU, Riyu LU, Dong GUO, 2021: Projected Increase in Probability of East Asian Heavy Rainy Summer in the 21st Century by CMIP5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 1635-1650.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-0347-0
    [12] WANG Chao, WU Liguang, 2015: Influence of Future Tropical Cyclone Track Changes on Their Basin-Wide Intensity over the Western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 Projections, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 613-623.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4105-4
    [13] Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Filippo GIORGI, Botao ZHOU, Ying SHI, Jie WU, Yongxiang ZHANG, 2018: Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 376-388.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6269-1
    [14] YANG Yang, REN Rongcai, Ming CAI, RAO Jian, 2015: Attributing Analysis on the Model Bias in Surface Temperature in the Climate System Model FGOALS-s2 through a Process-Based Decomposition Method, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 457-469.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4061-z
    [15] Huanhuan ZHU, Zhihong JIANG, Juan LI, Wei LI, Cenxiao SUN, Laurent LI, 2020: Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1119-1132.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1
    [16] Sun-Hee SHIN, Ok-Yeon KIM, Dongmin KIM, Myong-In LEE, 2017: Cloud Radiative Effects and Changes Simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 859-876.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6089-3
    [17] HU Yongyun, 2007: Probability Distribution Function of a Forced Passive Tracer in the Lower Stratosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 163-180.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0163-1
    [18] Jie SONG, Jingjing ZHAO, 2020: Observed Long- and Short-lived North Atlantic Oscillation Events: Role of the Stratosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1338-1358.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0021-y
    [19] Xiaoyu REN, Yi LIU, Zhaonan CAI, Yuli ZHANG, 2022: Observations of Dynamic Turbulence in the Lower Stratosphere over Inner Mongolia Using a High-resolution Balloon Sensor Constant Temperature Anemometer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 519-528.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1233-5
    [20] CHEN Yuejuan, ZHOU Renjun, SHI Chunhua, BI Yun, 2006: Study on the Trace Species in the Stratosphere and Their Impact on Climate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 1020-1039.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-1020-3
PDF

Get Citation+

shu
Export:  

Share Article

Article Metrics

Article Views: 655 Times

PDF downloads: 461 Times

Cited by: Times
  • 加载中

    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 November 2012
    Manuscript revised: 10 November 2012
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Changes in Winter Stratospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Scenarios Simulated by the Climate System Model FGOALS-s2

    • 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
    • Manuscript received: 2012-11-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2012-11-10

    Abstract: Diagnosis of changes in the winter stratospheric circulation in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) scenarios simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, second version spectrum (FGOALS-s2), indicates that the model can generally reproduce the present climatology of the stratosphere and can capture the general features of its long-term changes during 1950--2000, including the global stratospheric cooling and the strengthening of the westerly polar jet, though the simulated polar vortex is much cooler, the jet is much stronger, and the projected changes are generally weaker than those revealed by observation data. With the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) effect in the historical simulation from 1850 to 2005 (called the HISTORICAL run) and the two future projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (called the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) from 2006 to 2100, the stratospheric response was generally steady, with an increasing stratospheric cooling and a strengthening polar jet extending equatorward. Correspondingly, the leading oscillation mode, defined as the Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO), exhibited a clear positive trend in each scenario, confirming the steady strengthening of the polar vortex. However, the positive trend of the PVO and the strengthening of the polar jet were not accompanied by decreased planetary-wave dynamical heating, suggesting that the cause of the positive PVO trend and the polar stratospheric cooling trend is probably the radiation cooling effect due to increase in GHGs. Nevertheless, without the long-term linear trend, the temporal variations of the wave dynamic heating, the PVO, and the polar stratospheric temper

      HTML

    Catalog

      Publish with AAS

      Contact us

      Links

      Copyright © 2018-2028 ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 京ICP备14024088号-7

      Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd  support: info@rhhz.net  

      /

      DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
      Return
      Return