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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2021 > Accepted Manuscript

Estimation and long-term trend analysis of surface solar radiation in Antarctica: A case study of Zhongshan Station

  • 1.

    Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University

  • 2.

    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Lab of Severe Weather

  • 3.

    National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center

  • 4.

    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences State Key Lab of Severe Weather

Fund Project:

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41941010 and 41771064), the National Basic Research Program of China (2016YFC1400303), and the Basic Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (2018Z001). We greatly appreciate the help from the Polar Research Institute of China and the Antarctic expeditioners at the Chinese Zhongshan Station.


doi:  10.1007/s00376-021-0386-6

  • Long-term, ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region. The fixed station was established in 1989 and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008. In this study, a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR was developed using ground meteorological observation data, and a high-precision, long-term DGSR dataset was constructed. Then, the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica, was analyzed. The RF model, which performs better than other models, shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R2 of 0.984, root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ/m2, and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ/m2. The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increased during 1990-2004 and then began to decrease after 2004. Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurred during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station. In addition to clouds and water vapor, bad weather conditions (such as snowfall, which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) were the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station. The high-precision, long-term estimated DGSR dataset enables us to further study and understand the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow, ice and atmosphere.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 17 November 2020
    Manuscript revised: 09 March 2021
    Manuscript accepted: 06 April 2021
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Estimation and long-term trend analysis of surface solar radiation in Antarctica: A case study of Zhongshan Station

    • Manuscript received: 2020-11-17
    • Manuscript revised: 2021-03-09
    • Manuscript accepted: 2021-04-06

    Abstract: Long-term, ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region. The fixed station was established in 1989 and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008. In this study, a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR was developed using ground meteorological observation data, and a high-precision, long-term DGSR dataset was constructed. Then, the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica, was analyzed. The RF model, which performs better than other models, shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R2 of 0.984, root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ/m2, and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ/m2. The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increased during 1990-2004 and then began to decrease after 2004. Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurred during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station. In addition to clouds and water vapor, bad weather conditions (such as snowfall, which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) were the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station. The high-precision, long-term estimated DGSR dataset enables us to further study and understand the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow, ice and atmosphere.

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