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Aug.  2022

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# A Concise Overview on Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

• China’s recently announced directive on tackling climate change, namely, to reach carbon peak by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, has led to an unprecedented nationwide response among the academia and industry. Under such a directive, a rapid increase in the grid penetration rate of solar in the near future can be fully anticipated. Although solar radiation is an atmospheric process, its utilization, as to produce electricity, has hitherto been handled by engineers. In that, it is thought important to bridge the two fields, atmospheric sciences and solar engineering, for the common good of carbon neutrality. In this überreview, all major aspects pertaining to solar resource assessment and forecasting are discussed in brief. Given the size of the topic at hand, instead of presenting technical details, which would be overly lengthy and repetitive, the overarching goal of this review is to comprehensively compile a catalog of some recent, and some not so recent, review papers, so that the interested readers can explore the details on their own.
摘要: 为应对气候变化，中国做出郑重承诺：“力争于2030前实现碳达峰，于2060年前实现碳中和”，该战略决策一经宣布，便得到了国内学术界和工业界前所未有的响应。在碳中和背景下，高比例、大规模太阳能并网发电在不久的将来必将成为现实。利用太阳辐射进行发电有很多工程技术问题需要解决，同时考虑到太阳辐射在大气中存在复杂的散射和吸收，是一个复杂的大气过程，也有赖于大气科学特别是大气探测的发展，因此合理有效地融合大气科学和太阳能工程两个领域，将在中国双碳目标实现过程中发挥重要作用。本论文概述了与太阳能资源评估和预测有关的科学和应用问题，考虑到这两方面都有很多综述论文，本文仅整理了近期太阳能资源评估和预报的综述论文，关于具体技术细节，感兴趣的读者可参看本文参考文献。
• Figure 1.  Some visualization to facilitate quality control of irradiance data. See Forstinger et al. (2021) for detailed interpretation of these plots.

Figure 2.  Five geostationary weather satellites jointly cover all locations on Earth between ±60° latitudes. Gridded irradiance estimates can be derived from the visible- and infrared-channel images captured by these satellites. (Other meteorological satellite series, such as Fengyun, are not shown, since their field-of-views overlap with the ones in the figure.) Data source: National Solar Radiation Data Base.

Figure 3.  A scatter plot of diffuse fraction $K$ versus clearness index $K_T$. The color bar indicates the number of points in the neighborhood. Data source: Fort Peck station, Baseline Surface Radiation Network.

Figure 4.  Angular distribution of sky luminances for each of the 15 CIE standard sky types. A solar zenith angle of 60° and a solar azimuth angle of 180° is assumed.

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## Manuscript History

Manuscript revised: 15 November 2021
Manuscript accepted: 18 November 2021
###### 通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
• 1.

沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

## A Concise Overview on Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

###### Corresponding author: Dazhi YANG, yangdazhi.nus@gmail.com;
• 1. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150006, China
• 2. Key Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Abstract: China’s recently announced directive on tackling climate change, namely, to reach carbon peak by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, has led to an unprecedented nationwide response among the academia and industry. Under such a directive, a rapid increase in the grid penetration rate of solar in the near future can be fully anticipated. Although solar radiation is an atmospheric process, its utilization, as to produce electricity, has hitherto been handled by engineers. In that, it is thought important to bridge the two fields, atmospheric sciences and solar engineering, for the common good of carbon neutrality. In this überreview, all major aspects pertaining to solar resource assessment and forecasting are discussed in brief. Given the size of the topic at hand, instead of presenting technical details, which would be overly lengthy and repetitive, the overarching goal of this review is to comprehensively compile a catalog of some recent, and some not so recent, review papers, so that the interested readers can explore the details on their own.

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