Advanced Search
Article Contents

Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM

  • The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10-60N, 55-155E) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do main. While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ~ 30N and ~ 10% decreases south of ~ 30N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia. The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff.
  • [1] Seung-Jae LEE, E. Hugo BERBERY, Domingo ALCARAZ-SEGURA, 2013: Effect of Implementing Ecosystem Functional Type Data in a Mesoscale Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1373-1386.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2143-3
    [2] WANG Zaizhi, WU Guoxiong, WU Tongwen, YU Rucong, 2004: Simulation of Asian Monsoon Seasonal Variations with Climate Model R42L9/LASG, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 879-889.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915590
    [3] ZHANG Lixia* and ZHOU Tianjun, , 2014: An Assessment of Improvements in Global Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in FGOALS-s2, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 165-178.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2164-6
    [4] Wen CHEN, Renhe ZHANG, Renguang WU, Zhiping WEN, Liantong ZHOU, Lin WANG, Peng HU, Tianjiao MA, Jinling PIAO, Lei SONG, Zhibiao WANG, Juncong LI, Hainan GONG, Jingliang HUANGFU, Yong LIU, 2023: Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1429-1456.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2266-8
    [5] Zeng Qingcun, Dai Yongjiu, Xue Feng, 1998: Simulation of the Asian Monsoon by IAP AGCM Coupled with an Advanced Land Surface Model (IAP94), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 15, 1-16.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-998-0013-9
    [6] REN Guoyu, DING Yihui, ZHAO Zongci, ZHENG Jingyun, WU Tongwen, TANG Guoli, XU Ying, 2012: Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 958-977.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1200-2
    [7] Dan Li, Ji Jinjun, Li Yinpeng, 2002: Climate Simulations Based on a Different-Grid Nested and Coupled Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 487-499.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0081-1
    [8] Donglin GUO, Huijun WANG, 2016: Comparison of a Very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM Dynamical Downscaling in Simulating Climate in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 559-570.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5147-y
    [9] Jeong-Hyeong LEE, Byungsoo KIM, Keon-Tae SOHN, Won-Tae KOWN, Seung-Ki MIN, 2005: Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 159-171.  doi: 10.1007/BF02918506
    [10] Shang-Ping XIE, Yu KOSAKA, Yan DU, Kaiming HU, Jasti S. CHOWDARY, Gang HUANG, 2016: Indo-Western Pacific Ocean Capacitor and Coherent Climate Anomalies in Post-ENSO Summer: A Review, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 411-432.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6
    [11] Ge Ling, Liang Jiaxing, Chen Yiliang, 1996: Spatial / Temporal Features of Antarctic Climate Change, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 13, 375-382.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656854
    [12] SUN Guodong, MU Mu, 2011: Response of a Grassland Ecosystem to Climate Change in a Theoretical Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1266-1278.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0169-6
    [13] CHOU Jieming, DONG Wenjie, FENG Guolin, 2010: Application of an Economy--Climate Model to Assess the Impact of Climate Change, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 957-965.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8166-8
    [14] Dai Xiaosu, Ding Yihui, 1994: A Modeling Study of Climate Change and Its Implication for Agriculture in China Part II: The Implication of Climate Change for Agriculture in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 499-506.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658171
    [15] Xun LI, Noel E. DAVIDSON, Yihong DUAN, Kevin J. TORY, Zhian SUN, Qinbo CAI, 2020: Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun (2014), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 187-210.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8274-z
    [16] Gao Ge, Huang Chaoying, 2001: Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources in North China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 718-732.  doi: 10.1007/BF03403497
    [17] JI Mingxia, HUANG Jianping, XIE Yongkun, LIU Jun, 2015: Comparison of Dryland Climate Change in Observations and CMIP5 Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1565-1574.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4267-8
    [18] Chong-yu XU, Elin WIDN, Sven HALLDIN, 2005: Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 789-797.  doi: 10.1007/BF02918679
    [19] DING Yihui, REN Guoyu, ZHAO Zongci, XU Ying, LUO Yong, LI Qiaoping, ZHANG Jin, 2007: Detection, Causes and Projection of Climate Change over China: An Overview of Recent Progress, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 954-971.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0954-4
    [20] BAI Jie, GE Quansheng, DAI Junhu, 2011: The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 564-572.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9219-8

Get Citation+

Export:  

Share Article

Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 September 2001
Manuscript revised: 10 September 2001
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM

  • 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research② P. O. Box 3000,Boulder, CO 80307,National Center for Atmospheric Research② P. O. Box 3000,Boulder, CO 80307,National Center for Atmospheric Research② P. O. Box 3000,Boulder, CO 80307,National Center for Atmospheric Research② P. O. Box 3000,Boulder, CO 80307

Abstract: The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10-60N, 55-155E) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do main. While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ~ 30N and ~ 10% decreases south of ~ 30N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia. The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff.

Catalog

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return