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Volume 18 Issue 5

Sep.  2001

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2001 >  18(5): 929-936

Recent Researches on the Short-Term Climate Prediction at IAP－A Brief Review

  • 1.

    LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

  • Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia were made. Based on the biennial signal in the interannual climate variability, an effective method was proposed for correcting the model predicted results recently. In order to consider the impacts of the initial soil mois ture anomalies, an empirical scheme was designed to compute the soil moisture by use of the atmospheric quantities like temperature, precipitation, and so on. Sets of prediction experiments were carried out to study the impacts of SST and the initial atmospheric conditions on the flood occurring over China in 1998.
  • [1] REN Guoyu, DING Yihui, ZHAO Zongci, ZHENG Jingyun, WU Tongwen, TANG Guoli, XU Ying, 2012: Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 958-977.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1200-2
    [2] LI Shan, RONG Xingyao, LIU Yun, LIU Zhengyu, Klaus FRAEDRICH, 2013: Dynamic Analogue Initialization for Ensemble Forecasting, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1406-1420.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2244-z
    [3] YANG Peicai, WANG Geli, BIAN Jianchun, ZHOU Xiuji, 2010: The Prediction of Non-stationary Climate Series Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 845-854.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9128-x
    [4] XIAO Ziniu, LIU Hua, ZHANG De, 2012: Progress in Climate Prediction and Weather Forecast Operations in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 943-957.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1194-9
    [5] Bi Xunqiang, 1997: Parallel Computing of a Climate Model on the Dawn 1000 by Domain Decomposition Method, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 14, 569-572.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0075-0
    [6] Susannah M. BURROWS, Aritra DASGUPTA, Sarah REEHL, Lisa BRAMER, Po-Lun MA, Philip J. RASCH, Yun QIAN, 2018: Characterizing the Relative Importance Assigned to Physical Variables by Climate Scientists when Assessing Atmospheric Climate Model Fidelity, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 1101-1113.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7300-x
    [7] Jinliang Liu, Han-Ru Cho, 2001: Effects of Topographic Slopes on Hydrological Proecsses and Climate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 733-741.
    [8] Zhang Yu, Lu Shihua, 2002: Development and Validation of a Simple Frozen Soil Parameterization Scheme Used for Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 513-527.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0083-z
    [9] Alexey V. ELISEEV, Igor I. MOKHOV, 2011: Uncertainty of Climate Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Due to Different Land Use Scenarios, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1215-1232.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0054-8
    [10] Song Yukuan, Chen Longxun, Dong Min, 1994: Numerical Simulation for the Impact of Deforestation on Climate in China and Its Neighboring Regions, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 212-223.  doi: 10.1007/BF02666547
    [11] ZHANG Lixia* and ZHOU Tianjun, , 2014: An Assessment of Improvements in Global Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in FGOALS-s2, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 165-178.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2164-6
    [12] HOU Jiangtao, JIA Gensuo, ZHAO Tianbao, WANG Hesong, TANG Bohui, , 2014: Satellite-Based Estimation of Daily Average Net Radiation under Clear-Sky Conditions, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 705-720.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3047-6
    [13] Zhou Guangqing, Zeng Qingcun, 2001: Predictions of ENSO with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 587-603.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0047-8
    [14] Tianbao XU, Zhicong YIN, Xiaoqing MA, Yanyan HUANG, Huijun WANG, 2023: Hybrid Seasonal Prediction of Meridional Temperature Gradient Associated with “Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia”, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2226-3
    [15] WANG Geli, YANG Peicai, ZHOU Xiuji, 2013: Nonstationary Time Series Prediction by Incorporating External Forces, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1601-1607.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2134-z
    [16] Jo-Han LEE, Dong-Kyou LEE, Hyun-Ha LEE, Yonghan CHOI, Hyung-Woo KIM, 2010: Radar Data Assimilation for the Simulation of Mesoscale Convective Systems, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 1025-1042.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9162-8
    [17] WU Lingyun, ZHANG Jingyong, 2015: The Relationship between Spring Soil Moisture and Summer Hot Extremes over North China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1660-1668.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5003-0
    [18] ZHONG Zhong, ZHAO Ming, SU Bingkai, TANG Jianping, 2003: On the Determination and Characteristics of Effective Roughness Length for Heterogeneous Terrain, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 71-76.  doi: 10.1007/BF03342051
    [19] Wang Hongqi, Zhao Gaoxiang, 2002: Parameterization of Longwave Optical Properties for Water Clouds, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 25-34.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0031-y
    [20] Alexey V.ELISEEV, Igor I. MOKHOV, 2003: Amplitude-Phase Characteristics of the Annual Cycle of Surface Air Temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 1-16.  doi: 10.1007/BF03342045
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 September 2001
    Manuscript revised: 10 September 2001
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Recent Researches on the Short-Term Climate Prediction at IAP－A Brief Review

    • 1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
    • Manuscript received: 2001-09-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2001-09-10

    Abstract: Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia were made. Based on the biennial signal in the interannual climate variability, an effective method was proposed for correcting the model predicted results recently. In order to consider the impacts of the initial soil mois ture anomalies, an empirical scheme was designed to compute the soil moisture by use of the atmospheric quantities like temperature, precipitation, and so on. Sets of prediction experiments were carried out to study the impacts of SST and the initial atmospheric conditions on the flood occurring over China in 1998.

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