高级检索

中国东部夏季季节内降水异常的经向移动分类及可能机理

Classification of the subseasonal meridional march of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China and possible mechanism

  • 摘要: 理解中国东部夏季季节内降水异常的经向移动分类对理解东亚季风动力过程和雨带预测有重要影响。目前已有研究多针对于季节内尺度上局地降水的分类和移动特征,而对于中国东部夏季降水异常在季节内尺度的移动规律及分类尚不清晰。因此本文利用K均值聚类方法将中国东部地区夏季(24-50候)季节内降水异常的经向移动分为三类:1)降水异常由华南向北移动的北传型,2)降水异常稳定维持并以30oN为界呈南北反相的振荡型,以及3)降水异常由黄淮流域向南移动的南退型。进一步分析表明,三类降水异常移动型都可观测到热带印度洋地区的对流异常向东北传播,但其降水异常是否能传播至中国东部取决于东亚中纬度扰动的移动速度和强度。当中国东部西风急流较强较宽,使得中纬度扰动能快速东移,而传播至东亚的波活动通量不活跃,导致扰动难以发展,使得热带对流异常更易向北传播,有利于第一类北传型降水异常的发生;当中国东部西风急流偏弱,且传播至东亚的波活动通量活跃时,中纬度扰动移动较慢较为稳定,并可获得来自上游的波能量发展增强,从而阻挡热带对流异常的北传,有利于形成第二类振荡型降水异常模态;当中国东部西风急流较强较宽,但传播至东亚的波活动通量较活跃时,中纬度扰动加强并倾向南压,形成第三类南退型降水异常。

     

    Abstract: Understanding the classification of the subseasonal meridional march of summer precipitation anomalies in eastern China has important influence on understanding dynamic process of East Asian summer monsoon and prediction of rainband. However, previous studies for classification of precipitation focus on subseasonal propagation for local precipitation, while the regularity and classification of subseasonal march of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China is still unclear. Therefore, in this study the subseasonal meridional movement of summer (24-50 pentad) precipitation anomalies over eastern China has been classified into three categories by using K-means clustering method: 1) the northward propagating type in which the precipitation anomalies move northward from South China; 2) the oscillating type in which the precipitation anomalies are stable and the phase is reverse in the north and south of 30oN; 3) the southward retreating type in which the precipitation anomalies move southward from the Huang-Huai River Basin. Furthermore, it can be observed that the anomalous convection over tropical Indian Ocean propagates northeastward in all three types. However, whether the precipitation anomalies can propagate to eastern China largely depends on the movement speed and intensity of the mid-latitude disturbance over East Asia. When the westerly jet over eastern China is strong and wide, the mid-latitude disturbance moves eastward quickly. While the wave activity flux propagated to East Asia is inactive, the mid-latitude disturbance is hard to develop. In this case, tropical anomalous convection is prone to propagate northward and form the northward propagating type. If the westerly jet over eastern China is weak but the wave activity flux propagated to East Asia is active, the mid-latitude disturbance moves slowly and is stable. It can develop and enhance due to active upstream wave energy transport, thus blocking the northward propagating of the tropical anomalous convection and forming the oscillating type. When the westerly jet over eastern China is strong and wide, and the wave activity flux transported to East Asia is active, the mid-latitude disturbance can be strengthened and propagate southward, formulating southward retreating type.

     

/

返回文章
返回