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东亚—太平洋及欧洲—大西洋海陆热力差异对中国夏季降水均值和变率的影响

Effects of Sea–Land Thermal Contrast in the East Asia–Pacific and Europe–Atlantic Regions on the Mean and Variability of Summer Precipitation in China

  • 摘要: 中国夏季降水主要受东亚夏季风的影响,而影响季风的主要因素为海陆热力差异。本文基于1979~2022年的ECMWF/ERA5再分析资料和CN05.1格点化降水数据集,定义了欧洲—大西洋海陆热力差异和两类东亚—太平洋海陆热力差异(东亚—北太平洋和东亚—副高热力差异),研究了上述三个海陆热力差异特征和中国夏季降水的时空特征,分析了海陆热力差异对中国夏季降水均值和变率的作用以及变率对极端降水的影响。结果表明:(1)东北地区、长江下游地区和青藏高原地区的降水受海陆热力差异的影响较为显著,这些地区夏季降水均值和变率的变化使得这些地区的极端降水发生的概率发生显著变化。(2)欧洲—大西洋和两类东亚—太平洋海陆热力差异在过去40年里保持增加的趋势并在未来中排放情景下呈显著的增加,且陆面增温高于海洋。(3)东北地区降水产生及变化的主要贡献是东亚—北太平洋和东亚—副高海陆热力差异;影响长江下游地区降水的主要贡献是东亚—北太平洋海陆热力差异;对高原地区降水造成影响的主要是东亚—副高和欧洲—大西洋海陆热力差异。最后,LBM模拟的结果进一步证实了欧洲—大西洋热力差异使得高原西部降水增多,东部降水减少。这些发现为深入理解中国夏季降水的时空变化及其背后的物理机制提供了重要依据。

     

    Abstract: China’s summer precipitation is primarily influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon, which is driven by land–sea thermal contrast. This study defines the European–Atlantic land–sea thermal contrasts and two types of East Asian–Pacific land–sea thermal contrast (East Asia–North Pacific and East Asia–Subtropical High), using ECMWF/ERA5 reanalysis data and CN05.1 gridded precipitation dataset from 1979 to 2022. The study examines the characteristics of the three land–sea thermal contrasts, along with the spatial and temporal patterns of summer precipitation in China. In addition, it analyzes the effects of land–sea thermal contrast on the mean and variability of summer precipitation, as well as the influence of variability on extreme precipitation. The results show the following: (1) The precipitation in Northeast China, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau is significantly affected by land–sea thermal contrast. The mean and variability of summer precipitation in these regions are increasing, and greater variability raises the probability of extreme precipitation. (2) The land–sea thermal contrast between East Asia–Pacific and Europe–Atlantic has maintained an increasing trend over the past 40 years and continues to rise under the medium emission scenario, with land surface warming exceeding oceanic warming. (3) The primary driver of precipitation generation and change in Northeast China is the land–sea thermal contrast between East Asia–Pacific and East Asia–Subtropical High. Moreover, the key factor influencing precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River is the land–sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the Pacific. In the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau region, precipitation is mainly affected by the thermal contrast between the East Asia–Subtropical High and the Europe–Atlantic land–sea mechanism. Finally, LBM (Linear Baroclinic Model) simulation results further confirm that the Euro–Atlantic thermal contrast increases precipitation in the western Qinghai–Xizang Plateau but reduces precipitation in the eastern Qinghai–Xizang Plateau. These findings provide a crucial foundation for understanding the temporal and spatial variations of summer precipitation in China and the physical mechanisms behind them.

     

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