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2022年春季中国南方极端低温的可能机制分析

Analysis of Potential Mechanism of the Extreme Low Temperature in South China during the Spring of 2022

  • 摘要: 极端低温事件往往给居民生活、农作物生长等造成严重影响,因此对极端低温事件成因的分析十分重要。本文利用1980~2022年CN05.1气温观测数据和ERA5再分析数据,分析了2022年5月发生在中国南方(20°N~30°N,100°E~122°E)极端低温事件的时空分布特征,揭示了影响此次极端低温事件的环流背景和可能因子。结果表明,此次极端低温事件强度大,与1980~2022年5月平均态相比,气温偏低超过3个标准差,低温持续时间长达31天,影响范围超过150万平方千米,为1980年以来最强的一次极端低温事件。进一步分析发现,在对流层中层欧亚中高纬存在显著波列,中国南方上空为异常低压控制,使得中高纬冷空气深入南下。与此同时,赤道中东太平洋上La Niña的重新发展使对流抑制中心偏西偏强,其激发的Rossby波在菲律宾以东形成一个异常反气旋环流,该异常反气旋西侧的南风将海洋上的暖湿气流向中国南方输送,与冷空气汇合,产生对流,显著减少了地表净短波辐射,使气温更加偏低。因此,2022年5月中国南方极端低温是与冷空气活动相关的环流和菲律宾反气旋共同作用的结果,以这两个因子构建拟合方程,所再现的气温可达到−2个标准差。

     

    Abstract: Extreme low-temperature events often have remarkable effects on human lives and crop growth. Therefore, it is important to analyze the causes of such events. This study utilized CN05.1 temperature observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data for the period 1980–2022 to examine the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the extreme low-temperature event that occurred in South China (20°N–30°N, 100°E–122°E) in May 2022. The circulation background and possible factors affecting this event were determined. The analysis revealed that the intensity of this event was strong, with the temperature being lower than three standard deviations compared with the average state of May 1980–2022. Besides, the cold lasted up to 31 days and affected an area of more than 1.5 million square kilometers. Thus, it was the strongest extreme low-temperature event since 1980. Further analysis revealed a significant wave train in the middle troposphere over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and an anomalous low pressure over South China, which caused the cold air in the middle and high latitudes to move deep south. Concurrently, because of the re-intensified La Niña in the equatorial Middle East Pacific, the convective suppression center became more westerly and stronger, and the related Rossby wave formed an anomalous anticyclone to the east of the Philippines. Subsequently, the southerly wind on the west side of this anticyclone transported warm and humid air from the ocean to South China. This air converged with the cold air to generate convection that significantly reduced the surface net shortwave radiation and further lowered the temperature. Thus, the extreme low-temperature event in South China in May 2022 was the result of the joint action of the circulation related to cold air activity and the Philippine anticyclone. The reproduced temperature obtained using the fitting equation constructed by considering these two factors reaches −2 times the standard deviation.

     

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