Abstract:
GMSL (Global Mean Sea Level) has risen by 0.16 m over the past century, posing various climate challenges at both global and regional scales. Tropical atmospheric circulations, key drivers of weather and climate anomalies, play critical roles in regulating global heat and moisture exchange. Understanding how GMSL rise influences these circulations can help improve climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, we used climate model simulations based on the Norwegian Earth System Model to examine the response of tropical atmospheric circulations to GMSL rise. The upper tropospheric velocity potential was decomposed into components related to the Hadley circulation, Pacific Walker circulation, and monsoon circulation. Then, we investigated how these components change under different GMSL rise scenarios. The results show that the velocity potential decomposition method effectively captures the climatological patterns and seasonal evolutions of tropical atmospheric circulations. Further, in response to GMSL rise, the Hadley circulation weakens in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere (SH) during boreal summer, and the SH Hadley circulation strengthens during the boreal winter. The Pacific Walker circulation shows a slight intensification and exhibits a shift toward the east. The East Asian winter and summer monsoons intensify with the rising GMSL.