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基于速度势的热带大气环流分解及其对全球平均海平面上升的响应

Decomposition of Tropical Atmospheric Circulations Based on Velocity Potential and Their Responses to Global Mean Sea Level Rise

  • 摘要: 摘要全球平均海平面自20世纪以来上升了0.16 m,在全球和区域尺度上引发了多种气候变化挑战。热带大气环流是天气和气候异常的直接驱动因子,对全球和区域的水循环有着重要作用。明确全球平均海平面上升对热带大气环流的影响有助于更好地应对、减缓和适应气候变化。本文基于挪威地球系统模式(NorESM1-F)的一系列海平面上升试验,将对流层上层速度势分解为哈德莱环流、沃克环流以及季风环流相关分量,进一步研究了不同海平面上升高度下三种环流的变化。结果表明,基于速度势的分解方法可以很好地再现热带大气环流的气候态和季节演变特征。全球海平面上升使北半球夏季南、北半球哈德莱环流均减弱,北半球冬季南半球哈德莱环流增强。此外,全球平均海平面上升还将使得太平洋沃克环流增强东移,东亚冬、夏季风增强。

     

    Abstract: GMSL (Global Mean Sea Level) has risen by 0.16 m over the past century, posing various climate challenges at both global and regional scales. Tropical atmospheric circulations, key drivers of weather and climate anomalies, play critical roles in regulating global heat and moisture exchange. Understanding how GMSL rise influences these circulations can help improve climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, we used climate model simulations based on the Norwegian Earth System Model to examine the response of tropical atmospheric circulations to GMSL rise. The upper tropospheric velocity potential was decomposed into components related to the Hadley circulation, Pacific Walker circulation, and monsoon circulation. Then, we investigated how these components change under different GMSL rise scenarios. The results show that the velocity potential decomposition method effectively captures the climatological patterns and seasonal evolutions of tropical atmospheric circulations. Further, in response to GMSL rise, the Hadley circulation weakens in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere (SH) during boreal summer, and the SH Hadley circulation strengthens during the boreal winter. The Pacific Walker circulation shows a slight intensification and exhibits a shift toward the east. The East Asian winter and summer monsoons intensify with the rising GMSL.

     

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