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“一带一路”区域夏季复合高温干旱极端事件未来预估

Future projection of compound heat and drought events in summer over the Belt and Road region

  • 摘要: 本文基于ERA5再分析数据和18个CMIP6全球气候模式在历史及未来四种温室气体排放情景下的模拟结果,首先计算了标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),利用SPEI和相对阈值法分别定义了干旱和高温事件,识别出复合高温干旱极端事件,预估了“一带一路”区域夏季复合高温干旱极端事件发生天数、最长持续时间和发生频次的变化特征。并构建了严重性指数SI来考察未来复合高温干旱极端事件的严重程度,进一步通过多元线性回归分析,揭示了高温、干旱及其耦合作用对该复合事件的相对贡献。结果表明,CMIP6模式能够较好地再现历史时期“一带一路”区域夏季复合高温干旱极端事件的时空分布特征。相对1995~2014年,该区域复合极端事件在未来将全面增强,到21世纪末,事件的发生天数、持续时间和发生频次将分别增加6~32 d、12~19 d和1~2 times,增加幅度与温室气体的排放浓度呈正相关,但发生频次的增加幅度相对较小,这可能与该事件持续时间的延长有关。此外,事件的严重程度也显著增加,在SSP5-8.5情景下的增加趋势约为0.04~0.12 (10a)-1。“一带一路”区域未来复合高温干旱极端事件的变化将由高温主导(相对贡献约50%~90%),除中东欧外,其他地区高温的相对贡献均随时间增加,中西亚及独联体欧洲区域将由历史时期的耦合作用主导向未来由高温主导转变,但对温室气体浓度变化不敏感。此研究有助于深入了解“一带一路”区域全球变暖背景下复合高温干旱极端事件的变化,可为“一带一路”倡议的实施提供支撑。

     

    Abstract: This study is based on ERA5 and the simulation results from 18 CMIP6 global climate models under both historical and four future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Drought events are defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and relative threshold method for detecting heat events, and their combination is used to identify compound heat and drought events. Our analysis focuses on projecting summer compound heat and drought events in the Belt and Road region, including their occurrence days, maximum duration, and frequency. We construct a Severity Index (SI) to quantify the future change in the severity of compound events. The relative contributions of heat, drought and their coupling effects to the compound events are also further revealed by multiple linear regression analysis. The results show that the CMIP6 models effectively capture the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the compound heat and drought events in the Belt and Road region. In the future, compound events in this region exhibit comprehensive intensification characteristics. By the end of the 21st century, compared to the period of 1995–2014, the occurrence days, duration, and frequency of events are projected to increase by 6 to 32 days, 12 to 19 days, and 1 to 2 times respectively, with the increase positively correlating with the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in event frequency is relatively modest, likely due to longer event durations. In addition, there is a significant increase in the severity of events, with an increasing trend of approximately 0.04 to 0.11 per decade under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In the future, the changes in compound heat and drought events will be primarily driven by heat events (relative contribution is about 50% to 90%). Except for Central and Eastern Europe(CEU), the relative contribution of heat events in other regions increases with time but remains insensitive to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The Central Asia (CAS), West Asia (WAS), and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) regions will shift from a coupling–dominated to a heat–dominated. This study contributes to an in–depth understanding of the changes in compound heat and drought events under global warming in the Belt and Road region, and could provide support for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

     

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