Abstract:
This study is based on ERA5 and the simulation results from 18 CMIP6 global climate models under both historical and four future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Drought events are defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and relative threshold method for detecting heat events, and their combination is used to identify compound heat and drought events. Our analysis focuses on projecting summer compound heat and drought events in the Belt and Road region, including their occurrence days, maximum duration, and frequency. We construct a Severity Index (SI) to quantify the future change in the severity of compound events. The relative contributions of heat, drought and their coupling effects to the compound events are also further revealed by multiple linear regression analysis. The results show that the CMIP6 models effectively capture the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the compound heat and drought events in the Belt and Road region. In the future, compound events in this region exhibit comprehensive intensification characteristics. By the end of the 21st century, compared to the period of 1995–2014, the occurrence days, duration, and frequency of events are projected to increase by 6 to 32 days, 12 to 19 days, and 1 to 2 times respectively, with the increase positively correlating with the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in event frequency is relatively modest, likely due to longer event durations. In addition, there is a significant increase in the severity of events, with an increasing trend of approximately 0.04 to 0.11 per decade under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In the future, the changes in compound heat and drought events will be primarily driven by heat events (relative contribution is about 50% to 90%). Except for Central and Eastern Europe(CEU), the relative contribution of heat events in other regions increases with time but remains insensitive to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The Central Asia (CAS), West Asia (WAS), and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) regions will shift from a coupling–dominated to a heat–dominated. This study contributes to an in–depth understanding of the changes in compound heat and drought events under global warming in the Belt and Road region, and could provide support for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.