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近50年福建省短历时极端暴雨时空分布特征分析

Characterization of spatial and temporal distribution of short-term extreme rainstorms in Fujian over the past 50 years

  • 摘要: 为探究福建省短历时极端暴雨时空分布特征,采用1974~2023年福建省121个气象站日间和夜间的1 h、3 h和6 h年最大降水表征极端暴雨,利用Mann-Kendall检验法探究短历时极端暴雨时间变化规律和地区线性矩法开展短历时极端暴雨空间分布规律分析,结果表明:福建省可划分为4个水文气象一致区,各一致区内的年最大降水序列大多以广义极值(Generalized Extreme Value,GEV)分布拟合效果为最优,并且线性矩法相较于常规矩法具有更高的精确性。福建省短历时暴雨极值在1970 s~2000 s呈现减小趋势。进入2000年后增长态势显著,高海拔地区的暴雨极值由夜间向日间发生结构性调整,其余地区昼夜均有增长。同时,高山站的极端暴雨范围逐年扩张,位于南坡的站点在夜间遭遇极端暴雨的可能性增加,位于北坡的站点遭受极端暴雨的历时逐年缩短。福建省短历时极端暴雨量级总体由东部沿海向西部内陆递减。大值区在沿海、闽南、闽西山区均有分布。闽北沿海在夜间出现短历时极端暴雨的可能性大于日间。闽中、闽南沿海1 h和3 h的短历时极端暴雨在量级上夜间小于日间。闽西内陆日间发生短历时极端暴雨的可能性更高且降水持续时间较长。闽中山脉一线的短历时极端暴雨在量级和概率上始终较低。上述时空分布特征受海温异常、低层风场、锋生-能量场耦合及水汽输送协同调控:西太平洋暖异常增强西南风水汽输送;日间暴雨由海风辐合及地形抬升主导,夜间暴雨依赖陆风-急流耦合;锋生过程与θse高能舌空间耦合触发强对流,地形增幅显著提升夜间降水量级;风场日变化驱动水汽输送昼夜分异,海陆风环流、热带系统等协同调控水汽输送条件。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of short-term extreme rainstorms in Fujian, the 1-h, 3-h and 6-h annual maximum precipitation during daytime and nighttime at 121 meteorological stations were used to characterize the extreme rainstorms from 1974 to 2023. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of short-term extreme rainfall were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall test and the regional L-moments method. Results show that Fujian can be divided into 4 hydrometeorological homogeneous regions, most of the annual maximum precipitation series are optimally fitted with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and the L-moments method has a higher accuracy compared with the normal moment method. The short-term rainstorm extreme values in Fujian decreased from 1970 s to 2000 s and the growth trend was significant after 2000 s. Extremes values in high altitude areas have structured from nighttime to daytime, while the rest of the areas have increased both daytime and nighttime. Meanwhile, the range of extreme rainstorms at high-altitude stations was expanding annually, stations located on the southern slopes had an increased probability of suffering extreme rainstorms at night, and stations located on the northern slopes had a shorter duration of extreme rainstorms over time. Influenced by the complex factors involving topography and geomorphology, changes in weather systems and so on, the short-term extreme rainstorm volume in Fujian generally decreased from the east coast to the west inland. The large-value areas were distributed along the coast, Southern areas and the mountainous areas of Western Fujian. The probability of short-term extreme rainstorms along the coast of northern Fujian was greater in nighttime compared to daytime. The 1-h and 3-h short-term extreme rainstorms along the coasts of central and southern Fujian were lower in amount at night. The probability of short-term extreme rainstorms during the daytime was higher and the duration of precipitation was longer in the interior of western Fujian. The short-term extreme rainstorms along the central Fujian mountains were consistently lower in both amount and probability. These patterns are governed by sea surface temperature anomalies (enhancing southwestern moisture transport via western Pacific warming). Diurnal wind regimes (dominated by sea breeze convergence with orographic lift during daytime versus land breeze-low-level jet coupling at night). Synergistic triggering from spatial coupling between frontogenesis processes and high-θse energy tongues—where terrain forcing critically amplifies nocturnal rainfall. Diurnal moisture divergence-convergence phases, driven by wind variations, are further regulated by sea breeze circulation and tropical systems.

     

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