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气候变化背景下海平面上升叠加台风风暴潮的灾害风险及应对策略

Sea Level Rise Combined with Typhoon and Storm Surge under climate change: Disaster Risk and Adaptation Strategies

  • 摘要: 全球气候变暖背景下,海平面上升与台风和风暴潮的协同作用加剧了沿海地区复合洪水灾害风险,严重威胁沿海地区经济社会可持续发展。近年来,我国沿海频发的高海平面-天文大潮-风暴潮多灾种耦合事件导致大范围海水倒灌,暴露出现有防灾体系的不足。为此,本文重点回顾和总结了气候变化背景下海平面上升、台风活动及风暴潮的时空演变规律,探讨了其对我国沿海地区的复合致灾机制与灾害风险特征,并提出了分级应对策略。分析表明:近几十年来,气候变暖导致全球及区域海平面加速上升、台风强度增强且路径向高纬度偏移。1980年代以来,我国沿海2米以上风暴潮发生频率倍增,渤海湾、浙闽沿海及珠三角已成为高风险区,复合洪水灾害呈现“海-陆-气”多维耦合特征,海平面上升、台风、风暴潮、强降水和极端径流等多因子非线性叠加效应显著。到本世纪末,当前沿海地区百年一遇洪水重现期可能缩短至数年一遇,其中北方沿海(如渤海湾)的洪水灾害风险增幅尤为显著。基于此,本文提出分级协同应对策略:(1) 加强多致灾因子耦合机理研究,发展多尺度、高精度预测预警技术;(2) 建立高分辨率动态风险评估体系,制定区域差异化防控方案;(3) 形成“生态岸堤-海绵城市-智能排水”综合防洪系统。分析还显示,早期预警体系建设和防洪基础设施升级具有显著边际效益,建议将动态风险评估纳入沿海城市国土空间规划体系,并加强滨海湿地等生态屏障(如红树林、盐沼)的保护与修复。本文梳理的气候变化背景下沿海复合洪水灾害演变规律和综合应对框架,可为我国沿海地区洪水灾害风险管理提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Under global climate change, the compounding effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and typhoon-induced storm surges have significantly exacerbated coastal flood risks in China, threatening socio-economic sustainability. Severe seawater intrusion events—triggered by extreme sea levels combining SLR, astronomical tides, and storm surges—exposed critical gaps in existing coastal defense systems. This study systematically reviews the recent evolution characteristics of sea level rise, typhoons, storm surges, and compound flood disaster risks in China"s coastal areas, while proposing adaptation strategies. Key findings reveal that: Over the past few decades, climate warming has accelerated SLR rates, amplified typhoon intensity, with northwestward migration of storm tracks; The frequency of storm surges exceeding 2 meters along China"s coast has doubled since the 1980s, particularly in the Bohai Bay, Zhejiang-Fujian coasts, and Pearl River Delta; The compound floods present tri-dimensional air-sea-land coupling dynamics, with nonlinear amplification effects observed when SLR coincides with storm surges and pluvial flooding; By the end of this century, the current 100-year flood events may recur a few years or even or more frequent events; Northern coastal areas such as Bohai Bay are expected to experience more flooding risk than before. The response strategies are proposed as follows: (1) Deepen the mechanistic study of multi-hazard coupling to enhance disaster prediction and early warning capabilities; (2) Develop a high-resolution dynamic risk assessment system and create region-specific prevention and control planning; (3) Form a comprehensive flood defense system of "ecological embankment -sponge cities - intelligent drainage". The analysis also highlights the significant cost-effectiveness of establishing early warning systems and upgrading flood defenses. Dynamic risk assessment can be incorporated into the planning standards of coastal cities, while strengthening the protection of ecological barriers such as coastal wetlands. This paper systematically examines the development patterns of coastal disasters under climate change and the response framework, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for disaster risk management in China"s coastal areas.

     

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