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2011年后印度和东亚夏季风交界西移成因研究

Tao Yun1, 2, 3, Zhou Xiumei1, 2, 4, Cao Jie1, 21 Research center of weather disasters over Hengduan Mountains (Low-latitude Highlands), China Meteorological Administration, Kunming, 650071

  • 摘要: 本文利用1979~2024年NCEP-DOE II再分析资料,以物理意义清晰且计算简单的湿静力能为切入点,分析了2011年以来印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界趋势性西移的成因。分析结果表明多年平均的夏季湿静力能在90°~110°E,15°~35°N的范围内呈现鞍型场分布,用其随经度变化等零值线定义的印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界的多年平均位置在100°E附近。印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界位置在1979~2010年期间的演变趋势不明显,但2011以后其演变呈现出显著西移的趋势。印度夏季风和东亚夏季风的相对强弱是造成印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界东西移动的主要原因。印度夏季风与东亚夏季风交界东西移动具有明显的“趋强性”。2011~2024年期间印度夏季风具有增强的趋势,但东亚夏季风强度减弱趋势较弱。两支夏季风的这种跷跷板协同变化直接造成了2011~2024年期间印度和东亚夏季风交界显著西移。太平洋年代际涛动是导致2011~2024年期间印度和东亚夏季风交界显著西移的主要外部热力强迫因子。

     

    Abstract: Based on the moisture static energy (MSE) which has clear physical meanings and is easier to calculate, the causes for the westward shift of interface between Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon (IIE) after 2010 were analyzed in this study using National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy reanalysis II. The results show that the summer long-term-mean MSE around 90°–110°E,15°–35°N is characterized by saddle-shape. The IIE, defined by the partial deviation of MSE with respect to longitude being equal to zero, is located near 100°E. The evolution trend of the IIE is not obvious in 1979–2010, but significantly move westward after 2010. The intensity contrast between Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon is the main causes leading the westward shift of the IIE after 2010. The IIE usually moves toward the relatively stronger one in the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon. In 2011–2024, the intensity of Indian summer monsoon tends to increase, but the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon slightly decreases. The seesaw covariation between the two monsoon systems directly results in the westward shift of the IIE after 2010. Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is one of the most important external thermal forcing factors leading to the westward shift of the IIE after 2010.

     

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