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古季风多时间尺度演化的模拟研究综述

A Review of Simulation Studies on the Multi-Timescale Evolution of Paleomonsoon

  • 摘要: 季风系统演变规律及其驱动机制是重要的前沿科学问题,地质历史时期为解析季风多尺度变率的关键控制因子提供了科学依据。前人主要基于古气候重建资料围绕古季风多尺度变化进行了回顾和整理,近年来,随着地球系统模式的发展与应用,在古季风多尺度变化的时空特征和成因机制方面取得了重要进展,但针对古季风多尺度变化模拟方面的研究工作还缺乏系统整理。为此,本文聚焦近几年基于古气候数值模拟的研究成果,针对晚第四纪以来轨道-千年-百年-年代际时间尺度全球季风变化的热点问题和最新进展进行系统梳理,并提出了未来亟需加强的研究工作,包括针对跨时间尺度相互作用过程、季风系统突变的临界点问题及地球系统模式、古气候同化和机器学习方法的发展与应用等方面。这为深入理解全球季风多尺度变化、提高未来季风变化的预估能力提供借鉴。

     

    Abstract: The evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of monsoon systems represent a critical frontier in scientific research. Geological records provide key insights into the dominant factors controlling multi-scale monsoon variability. Previous studies have primarily reviewed paleomonsoon variations based on paleoclimate reconstructions. In recent years, significant progress has been made in understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics and underlying mechanisms of multi-scale paleomonsoon changes, owing to advances in Earth system modeling. However, a systematic synthesis of modeling studies on paleomonsoon multi-timescale variability remains lacking. This paper focuses on recent paleoclimate modeling studies, providing a comprehensive review of key findings and advances in global monsoon variability across orbital, millennial, centennial, and decadal timescales since the late Quaternary. Furthermore, we highlight future research priorities, including investigations into cross-timescale interactions, tipping points in monsoon systems, and the development and application of Earth system models, paleoclimate data assimilation, and machine learning methods. These efforts will enhance our understanding of global monsoon multi-scale variability and improve projections of future monsoon changes.

     

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