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中国清洁空气计划中2019年相对于2013年气溶胶辐射和气候效应的变化

Changes in Aerosol Radiative and Climatic Effects between 2013 and 2019 during the Clean Air Action in China

  • 摘要: 本文利用区域大气化学/气溶胶—气候耦合模式研究了中国东部2013年和2019年冬季气溶胶浓度、气溶胶直接和间接辐射效应及其对气象要素的影响。研究显示在清洁空气计划期间,相较于2013年,2019年中国东部平均近地面PM2.5浓度减小约29%,地面气溶胶直接辐射效应(DRE)减小约24%,其主要是人为源减排导致,而间接辐射效应(IRE)增加12%,这与南方云量增加有关,因此气溶胶总辐射效应(TRE)减小约10%。相较于2013年冬季,2019年冬季中国北方大部分地区气温增加,最大增温在京津地区,冬季平均超过1.0°C,这主要是由于清洁空气计划导致气溶胶辐射效应和冷却作用减弱,而在南方部分地区气温下降,最大超过0.7°C,降水减少,这是由于该地区IRE(TRE)比2013年更强。本文揭示了中国清洁空气计划在改善空气质量的同时对气候的可能影响,强调制定健康—气候双赢政策的必要性。

     

    Abstract: This study investigated aerosol distribution, the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols, and the feedback of these effects on the meteorology of eastern China during the winters of 2013 and 2019, using an online coupled regional atmospheric chemistry/aerosol-climate model. The modeling results revealed the following changes during the implementation of the Clean Air Action from 2013 to 2019: The regional mean near-surface PM2.5 concentration decreased by 29%. The DRE (direct radiative effect) of aerosols decreased by 24%, mainly due to the reduction in anthropogenic emissions. Meanwhile, the IRE (indirect radiative effect) increased by 12%, which was associated with an increase in cloud amount in southern China. Taken together, TRE (total radiative effect) of aerosols decreased by 10% over eastern China. Compared with the winter of 2013, the surface air temperature in the winter of 2019 was higher in most areas of northern China, with the maximum increase exceeding 1.0°C in Beijing and Tianjin; the higher temperatures were mainly attributed to the weakening of the aerosol cooling effect induced by the implementation of the Clean Air Action. Meanwhile, in parts of southern China, the surface air temperature in 2019 decreased by more than 0.7°C, accompanied by a decrease in precipitation caused by a stronger IRE (and hence, TRE) than that in 2013. This study reveals the potential climatic effects of the Clean Air Action. This study also highlights the need to design a win–win health–climate policy to address environmental and climatic changes.

     

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