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厄尔尼诺与中国东南部夏季极端湿热事件关系的年代际变化

Interdecadal Variation of the Relationship between El Ni?o and Summer Extreme Humid-Heat Events in Southeastern China

  • 摘要: 极端湿热事件直接影响人类健康和社会经济。我国夏季极端湿热事件主要发生在东南地区。本文的研究结果表明,1961-1993年期间前冬厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ENSO)与中国东南部夏季极端湿热日数(EHHD)的关系较弱,而1994-2020年期间ENSO与EHHD呈现显著的正相关关系,其中厄尔尼诺事件引起EHHD增多是相关关系增强的主要原因。后一时期当前冬厄尔尼诺事件发生时,夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋(WNPAC)偏西偏强,其引起的下沉运动、向下短波辐射以及水汽输送异常有利于EHHD增多。进一步分析表明,WNPAC强度与厄尔尼诺的衰减速度密切相关。后一时期厄尔尼诺事件衰减较快,次年夏季赤道中东太平洋转变为显著的冷海温异常,海洋性大陆表现为暖海温异常。赤道中东太平洋冷海温异常通过在其西侧激发反气旋性Rossby波,以及海洋性大陆暖海温异常通过激发东传的Kelvin波和加强南北向Hadley环流,增强了WNPAC。此外,热带海温及其伴随的降水异常引起的中纬度环球波列有利于WNPAC的形成和维持。相比之下,前一时期厄尔尼诺事件衰减较慢,夏季海温异常和WNPAC异常较弱,对EHHD的影响不明显。

     

    Abstract: Extreme humid-heat events directly impact human health and socio-economy. Extreme humid-heat events in summer in China mainly occur in the southeast region. The results of this study show that the relationship between early winter El Ni?o and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and summer extreme humid-heat days (EHHD) in southeast China during 1961-1993 is weak, while the relationship between ENSO and EHHD during 1994-2020 is significant positive correlation, and the increase of EHHD caused by El Ni?o events is the main reason for the enhanced correlation. In the latter period, when the El Ni?o events occurred in the early winter, the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) was westerly and stronger in summer, and the sinking motion, downward shortwave radiation and water vapor transport anomalies caused by it were conducive to the increase of EHHD. Further analysis shows that the WNPAC intensity is closely related to the El Ni?o decaying pace. In the latter period, the El Ni?o events decayed more rapidly, leading to significantcold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalyin the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and warm SST anomalyover theMaritime Continentin the following summer. The cold SST anomaly in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific excited an anticyclonic Rossby wave to its west, while the warm SST anomaly over the Maritime Continent triggered eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and strengthened the meridional Hadley circulation, collectively enhancing the WNPAC. In addition, the mid-latitude circumglobal wave train caused by tropical SST and its accompanying precipitation anomalies is conducive to the formation and maintenance of WNPAC. In contrast, in the previous period, the El Ni?o events decayed more slowly, resulting in weaker summer SST anomaly and WNPAC anomaly, which had an insignificant impact on EHHD.

     

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