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ISO信号对2024年8~9月中国西南地区高温干旱复合事件的影响分析

Impact analysis of ISO signals on the compound High-Temperature and Drought disaster event in Southwest China during August–September 2024

  • 摘要: 2024年8月中旬~9月中旬,中国西南地区出现了一次典型的高温干旱复合灾害事件,对当地经济和人民生活造成了较大影响。西南地区的高温干旱复合灾害事件已被证实与来自不同地区的季节内振荡(Intraseasonal Oscillations,ISO)有关,然而常规统计分析并不能区分不同ISO对高温干旱复合灾害的特定作用。本文通过进行ISO信号驱动的WRF侧边界强迫数值模拟试验并分析发现:本次过程由对流层高层的中纬度西风带波列引起的ISO信号对西南地区北部的高温热浪及干旱有明显作用,导致了该区域平均升温1.10℃,并加重了四川盆地及以北地区的干旱程度;而对流层低层的遥相关波列引起的ISO信号对整个区域高温干旱的作用更为明显,导致了该区域平均升温1.93℃。西南地区在复合灾害发展前期主要受来自北边界的中纬度西风带波列的影响,负涡度输送逐渐在高温发展期间造成一定的下沉条件;而在高温发展中后期,受来自西北太平洋副高西伸北抬影响下的暖平流作用影响,伴随对流层的位势高度场正异常,引起了区域性温度升高及土壤湿润度的下降。本研究有助于更好地了解高温干旱复合灾害的成因,并为其次季节预测提供基础。

     

    Abstract: From mid-August to mid-September 2024, a typical compound high-temperature and drought disaster occurred in Southwest China, significantly impacting local economies and people"s livelihoods. While such compound disasters in this region have been linked to intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) originating from various areas, conventional statistical analyses fail to distinguish the specific roles of different ISOs in driving these events. This study employs ISO signal-driven WRF lateral boundary forcing numerical simulations and reveals: The ISO signal triggered by mid-latitude westerly belt wave trains in the upper troposphere predominantly influenced the northern part of Southwest China, elevating regional temperatures by 1.10°C on average and exacerbating drought conditions in the Sichuan Basin and its northern areas. The ISO signal associated with teleconnection wave trains in the lower troposphere exerted more pronounced impacts on the entire region, driving an average temperature increase of 1.93°C. During the early stage of disaster development, the region was primarily affected by mid-latitude westerly belt wave trains from the northern boundary, with negative vorticity transport gradually establishing subsidence conditions conducive to temperature escalation. In the mid-late phase, warm advection induced by the westward extension and northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high, coupled with positive anomalies in tropospheric geopotential height fields, collectively drove regional temperature increases and soil moisture depletion. These findings enhance understanding of the mechanisms behind compound high-temperature-drought disasters and provide foundational insights for their subseasonal prediction.

     

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