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旱涝急转风险辨识与预报研究进展

Progress in risk assessment and forecasting of abrupt drought-to-flood transition

  • 摘要: 旱涝急转是一种在短时间内干旱与洪涝发生急剧转换的水文气象复合极端事件。随着全球变暖以及降水变率增加,旱涝急转事件发生频率显著增加,对农业、生态环境及社会经济造成严重威胁。本文系统综述了近年来旱涝急转研究的主要进展,涵盖识别方法、成因机制、风险评估与预报技术等方面。当前,旱涝急转识别方法研究较为广泛,包含多因子、多尺度等信息;成因机制主要聚焦于大气环流异常及热带遥相关等关键因素对旱涝急转影响;风险评估和预报研究已初步开展。针对旱涝急转的风险辨识与预报,未来研究建议聚焦以下方向:海-陆-气多圈层耦合过程对旱涝急转事件的协同触发机制;旱涝急转风险传递放大效应辨识和动态风险评估方法;结合人工智能和动力模式的旱涝急转多尺度、递进式预报技术。

     

    Abstract: Abrupt drought-to-flood transition (ADFT) is a compound hydrometeorological extreme event characterized by a rapid shift from drought to flood conditions within a short time. Against the backdrop of global warming and increased precipitation variability, the frequency of ADFT events has risen significantly, posing serious threats to agriculture, ecological environments, and socio-economic systems. This article reviews major advances in ADFT research in recent years, encompassing identification methods, mechanisms, risk assessment, and forecasting technologies. Current research on ADFT identification methods is extensive, incorporating multi-factor and multi-scale information. Studies on mechanisms primarily focus on the influence of key factors such as atmospheric circulation anomalies and tropical teleconnections. Research on risk assessment and forecasting has been preliminarily initiated. For ADFT risk assessment and forecasting, future studies should prioritize the following directions: the synergistic triggering mechanisms of ADFT events involving coupled ocean-land-atmosphere processes; the identification of ADFT risk propagation and amplification effects, along with dynamic risk assessment methodologies; and the development of multi-scale, progressive forecasting techniques integrating artificial intelligence and dynamical models.

     

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