Abstract:
Abrupt drought-to-flood transition (ADFT) is a compound hydrometeorological extreme event characterized by a rapid shift from drought to flood conditions within a short time. Against the backdrop of global warming and increased precipitation variability, the frequency of ADFT events has risen significantly, posing serious threats to agriculture, ecological environments, and socio-economic systems. This article reviews major advances in ADFT research in recent years, encompassing identification methods, mechanisms, risk assessment, and forecasting technologies. Current research on ADFT identification methods is extensive, incorporating multi-factor and multi-scale information. Studies on mechanisms primarily focus on the influence of key factors such as atmospheric circulation anomalies and tropical teleconnections. Research on risk assessment and forecasting has been preliminarily initiated. For ADFT risk assessment and forecasting, future studies should prioritize the following directions: the synergistic triggering mechanisms of ADFT events involving coupled ocean-land-atmosphere processes; the identification of ADFT risk propagation and amplification effects, along with dynamic risk assessment methodologies; and the development of multi-scale, progressive forecasting techniques integrating artificial intelligence and dynamical models.