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RCP4.5情景下中国季风区及降水变化预估

姜江 姜大膀 林一骅

姜江, 姜大膀, 林一骅. RCP4.5情景下中国季风区及降水变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(5): 901-910. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14216
引用本文: 姜江, 姜大膀, 林一骅. RCP4.5情景下中国季风区及降水变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(5): 901-910. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14216
JIANG Jiang, JIANG Dabang, LIN Yihua. Projection of Monsoon Area and Precipitation in China under the RCP4.5 Scenario[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(5): 901-910. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14216
Citation: JIANG Jiang, JIANG Dabang, LIN Yihua. Projection of Monsoon Area and Precipitation in China under the RCP4.5 Scenario[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(5): 901-910. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14216

RCP4.5情景下中国季风区及降水变化预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14216
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2012CB955401,国家自然科学基金项目41375084

Projection of Monsoon Area and Precipitation in China under the RCP4.5 Scenario

  • 摘要: 本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中共46个全球气候模式的数值试验结果,通过对中国区域的年、夏季和冬季降水气候态的模拟能力评估,择优选取了18个气候模式用来预估RCP4.5情景下21世纪中国季风区范围、季风降水及其强度变化。结果表明,相对于1986~2004年参考时段,RCP4.5情景下多数模式和所有模式集合平均在不同时段内均模拟出中国季风区面积、季风降水及其强度的增加趋势,最明显的时段出现在2081~2099年。其中,季风区面积扩张是导致季风降水增加的主要因素。在机制上,热力与动力条件变化均有利于季风降水强度的增加以及更多的水汽进入中国东部,从而引起季风区范围的扩大。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-06-27
  • 修回日期:  2014-11-06

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