高级检索

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

东亚夏季风强度的多尺度统计预测模型

纪忠萍 谷德军 林爱兰

纪忠萍, 谷德军, 林爱兰. 东亚夏季风强度的多尺度统计预测模型[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(2): 227-242. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1504.14274
引用本文: 纪忠萍, 谷德军, 林爱兰. 东亚夏季风强度的多尺度统计预测模型[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(2): 227-242. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1504.14274
JI Zhongping, GU Dejun, LIN Ailan. A Multiscale Statistical Prediction Model of East Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(2): 227-242. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1504.14274
Citation: JI Zhongping, GU Dejun, LIN Ailan. A Multiscale Statistical Prediction Model of East Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(2): 227-242. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1504.14274

东亚夏季风强度的多尺度统计预测模型

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1504.14274
基金项目: 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划2010CB950304、2014CB953901,广东省自然科学基金S2013010016751,国家自然科学基金项目41375095、41175071,中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA11010403

A Multiscale Statistical Prediction Model of East Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity

  • 摘要: 东亚夏季风强度的变化与中国雨带和旱涝分布密切相关。为了做好东亚夏季风强度的短期气候预测,采用小波分析、Lanczos滤波器、交叉检验等方法,研究了东亚夏季风强度的多尺度变化特征,在年际与年代际尺度上分别寻找了它在前冬海温场、200 hPa纬向风场上的前兆信号,并利用最优子集回归建立了东亚夏季风强度的多尺度统计物理预测模型。结果表明:东亚夏季风强度存在准4年、准13年和准43年的周期振荡。年际尺度上,前冬赤道东太平洋(10°N~10°S,160°W~80°W)海温与东亚夏季风强度有最强的显著负相关,且它与东亚夏季风强度在200 hPa纬向风场上的前兆信号有较强的负相关;年代际尺度上,南半球60°S与35°S附近200 hPa纬向风之差与东亚夏季风强度有最强的显著正相关,且它与东亚夏季风强度在热带印度洋、低纬度东南太平洋、低纬度南大西洋的海温及亚洲副热带200 hPa纬向风等前兆信号有强的正相关。通过探讨这两个前兆因子对东亚夏季风强度的预测意义,揭示了他们影响东亚夏季风强度年际和年代际变化的可能物理过程。所建立的东亚夏季风强度多尺度最优子集回归预测模型,不仅对东亚夏季风强度的年际变化具有较好的预测能力,而且对异常极值年份也具有一定的预测能力。
  • [1] 陈兴跃, 王会军, 曾庆存. 2000. 大气季节内振荡及其年际变化[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 142-144. Chen Xingyue, Wang Huijun, Zeng Qingcun. 2000. Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Its Interannual Variation(in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 142-144.
    [2] 陈隆勋, 张博, 张瑛. 2006. 东亚季风研究的进展[J]. 应用气象学报, 17(6):711-724. Chen Longxun, Zhang Bo, Zhang Ying. 2006.Progress in research on the East Asian monsoon[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese), 17(6):711-724.
    [3] 陈丽娟, 袁媛, 杨明珠, 等. 2013. 海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展[J]. 应用气象学报, 24(5):521-532. Chen Lijuan, Yuan Yuan, Yang Mingzhu, et al. A review of physical mechanisms of the global SSTA impact on EASM[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese), 24(5):521-532.
    [4] 邓伟涛, 孙照渤, 曾刚, 等. 2009. 中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J]. 大气科学, 33(4):835-846. Deng Weitao, Sun Zhaobo, Zeng Gang, et al. 2009. Interdecadal variation of summer precipitation pattern over eastern China and its relationship with the North Pacific SST[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 33(4):835-846.
    [5] Duchon C E. 1979. Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions[J]. J.Appl. Meteor., 18(8):1016-1022.
    [6] 范可. 2006. 南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系[J]. 地球物理学报, 49(3):672-679. Fan K. Atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere and summer rainfall over Yangtze River valley[J]. Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese), 49(3):672-679.
    [7] 范可, 王会军. 2006. 有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展[J]. 大气科学, 30(3):402-412. Fan Ke, Wang Huijun. 2006. Studies of the relationship between Southern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and climate over East Asia[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 30(3):402-412.
    [8] 范可, 王会军, Choi Y J. 2007. 一个长江中下游夏季降水的物理统计预测模型[J]. 科学通报, 52(24):2900-2905. Fan Ke, Wang Huijun, Choi Y J. A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 53(4):602-609.
    [9] 范丽军, 符淙斌, 陈德亮. 2007. 统计降尺度法对华北地区未来区域气温变化情景的预估[J]. 大气科学, 31(5):887-897. Fan Lijun, Fu Congbin, Chen Deliang. Estimation of local temperature change scenarios in North China using statistical downscaling method[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 31(5):887-897.
    [10] 高辉, 张芳华. 2003. 关于东亚夏季风指数的比较[J]. 热带气象学报, 19(1):79-86. Gao Hui, Zhang Fanghua. 2003. Discussion and comparison of East Asia summer monsoon index[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese), 19(1):79-86.
    [11] 高辉. 2004. 南半球大气环流的季节和年际变化及其对东亚夏季风的影响[D]. 南京气象学院博士学位论文, 125-132. Gao Hui. 2004.
    [12] Seasonal and interannual variations of the Southern Hemisphere circulation and their influences on East Asian summer monsoon[D]. Ph.D. dissertation(in Chinese), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 125-132.
    [13] 高辉, 刘芸芸, 王永光, 等. 2012. 亚洲夏季风爆发早晚的新前兆信号:冬季南极涛动[J]. 科学通报, 57(36):3516-3521. Gao Hui, Liu Yunyun, Wang Yongguang, et al. 2013. Precursory influence of the Antarctic oscillation on the onset of Asian summer monsoon[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(6):678-683.
    [14] 谷德军, 王东晓, 纪忠萍, 等. 2009. 墨西哥帽小波变换的影响域和计算方案新探讨[J]. 应用气象学报, 20(1):62-69. Gu Dejun, Wang Dongxiao, Ji Zhongping, et al. 2009. New research on cone of influence and computing scheme of Mexican hat wavelet transform[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese), 20(1):62-69.
    [15] 谷德军, 纪忠萍, 李春晖. 2011. 南海夏季风爆发日期与海温的多尺度关系及最优子集回归预测[J]. 海洋学报, 33(6):55-63. Gu Dejun, Ji Zhongping, Li Chunhui. 2011. Multi-scale correlation of onset date of South China Sea summer monsoon with sea surface temperature and optimal subset regression prediction[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinaca(in Chinese), 33(6):55-63.
    [16] 谷德军, 高晓容, 纪忠萍, 等. 2012. 广东开汛日期的多尺度物理统计预测模型[J]. 高原气象, 31(3):768-776. Gu Dejun, Gao Xiaorong, Ji Zhongping, et al. 2012. Multi-scale physical statistic prediction model for rain season onset date in Guangdong Province[J]. Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese), 31(3):768-776.
    [17] 郭其蕴. 1983. 东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J]. 地理学报, 38(3):207-217. Guo Qiyun. 1983. The summer monsoon intensity index in East Asia and its variation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese), 38(3):207-217.
    [18] 郭其蕴, 蔡静宁, 邵雪梅, 等. 2003. 东亚夏季风的年代际变率对中国气候的影响[J]. 地理学报, 58(4):569-576. Guo Qiyun, Cai Jingning, Shao Xuemei, et al. 2003. Interdecadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon and its impact on the climate of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese), 58(4):569-576.
    [19] 郭其蕴, 蔡静宁, 邵雪梅, 等. 2004. 1873~2000 年东亚夏季风变化的研究[J]. 大气科学, 28(2):206-215. Guo Qiyun, Cai Jingning, Shao Xuemei, et al. 2004. Studies on the variations of East Asian summer monsoon during AD 1873-2000[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 28(2):206-215.
    [20] 何诗秀, 杨祖芳. 1981. 北半球夏季西北太平洋热带地区西南季风强弱变化与南半球环流型的关系[J]. 大气科学, 5(1):50-59. He Shixiu, Yang Zufang. 1981. The relationship between the intensity of summer southwest monsoon over northwest Pacific and the circulation patterns of the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 5(1):50-59.
    [21] 何金海, 李俊, 李永平. 1991. 澳大利亚冷空气活动影响东亚夏季风的过程——数值试验[J]. 气象学报, 49(2):162-169. He Jinhai, Li Jun, Li Yongping. 1991. Numerical experiment with processes for effect of Australian cold air activity on East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 49(2):162-169.
    [22] 何金海, 宇婧婧, 沈新勇, 等. 2004. 有关东亚季风的形成及其变率的研究[J]. 热带气象学报, 20(5):449-459. He Jinhai, Yu Jingjing, Shen Xinyong, et al. 2004. Research on mechanism and variability of East Asian monsoon[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese), 20(5):449-459.
    [23] 黄刚, 严中伟. 1999. 东亚夏季风环流异常指数及其年际变化[J]. 科学通报, 44(4):421-424. Huang Gang, Yan Zhongwei. 1999. The East Asian summer monsoon circulation anomaly index and its interannual variations[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 44(14):1325-1329.
    [24] 黄荣辉, 孙凤英. 1994. 热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J]. 大气科学, 18(2):141-151.Huang Ronghui, Sun Fengying. 1994. Impacts of the thermal state and the convective activities in the tropical western warm pool on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 18(2):141-151.
    [25] 黄荣辉, 陈文, 丁一汇, 等. 2003. 关于季风动力学以及季风与ENSO 循环相互作用的研究[J]. 大气科学, 27(4):484-502. Huang Ronghui, Chen Wen, Ding Yihui, et al. 2003. Studies on the monsoon dynamics and the interaction between monsoon and ENSO cycle[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 27(4):484-502.
    [26] 江滢. 2005. 东亚季风指数分类初析[J]. 气象, 31(5):3-7. Jiang Ying. 2005. On classification of East Asian monsoon indices[J]. Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese), 31(5):3-7.
    [27] Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77(3):437-471.
    [28] 李建平, 曾庆存. 2005. 一个新的季风指数及其年际变化和与雨量的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 10(3):351-365. Li Jianping, Zeng Qingcun. 2005. A new monsoon index, its interannual variability and relation with monsoon precipitation[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese), 10(3):351-365.
    [29] 廖清海, 高守亭, 王会军, 等. 2004. 北半球夏季副热带西风急流变异及其对东亚夏季风气候异常的影响[J]. 地球物理学报, 47(1):10-18. Liao Qinghai, Gao Shouting, Wang Huijun, et al. 2004.
    [30] Anomalies of the extratropical westerly jet in the North Hemisphere and their impacts on East Asian summer monsoon climate anomalies[J]. Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese), 47(1):10-18.
    [31] 林爱兰, 谷德军, 郑彬, 等. 2013. 南海夏季风爆发与南大洋海温变化之间的联系[J]. 地球物理学报, 56(2):383-391. Lin Ailan, Gu Dejun, Zheng Bin, et al. 2013. Relationship between South China Sea summer monsoon onset and Southern Ocean sea surface temperature variation[J]. Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese), 56(2):383-391.
    [32] 刘海文, 周天军, 朱玉祥, 等. 2012. 东亚夏季风自20 世纪90 年代初开始恢复增强[J]. 科学通报, 57(9):765-769. Liu Haiwen, Zhou Tianjun, Zhu Yuxiang, et al. 2012. The strengthening East Asia summer monsoon since the early 1990s[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 57(13):1553-1558.
    [33] 陆日宇. 2002. 华北汛期降水量变化中年代际和年际尺度的分离[J]. 大气科学, 26(5):611-624. Lu Riyu. 2002. Separation of interannual and interdecadal variations of rainfall in North China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 26(5):611-624.
    [34] Loschnigg J, Meehl G A, Webster P J, et al. 2003. The Asian monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the Indian Ocean zonal mode in the NCAR CSM[J]. J. Climate, 16(11):1617-1642.
    [35] 马音, 陈文, 冯瑞权, 等. 2012. 我国东部梅雨期降水的年际和年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系[J]. 大气科学, 36(2):397-410. Ma Yin, Chen Wen, Feng Ruiquan, et al. 2012. Interannual and interdecadal variations of precipitation over eastern China during Meiyu season and their relationships with the atmospheric circulation and SST[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 36(2):397-410.
    [36] Michaelsen J. 1987. Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models[J]. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26(11):1589-1600.
    [37] 彭京备, 陈烈庭, 张庆云. 2005. 青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO 的多尺度变化及其与中国夏季降水的关系[J]. 高原气象, 24(3):366-377.Peng Jingbei, Chen Lieting, Zhang Qingyun. 2005. Multi-scale variations of snow cover over QXP and tropical Pacific SST and their influences on summer rainfall in China[J]. Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese), 24(3):366-377.
    [38] 彭京备, 陈烈庭, 张庆云. 2006. 多因子和多尺度合成中国夏季降水预测模型及预报试验[J]. 大气科学, 30(4):596-608. Peng Jingbei, Chen Lieting, Zhang Qingyun. 2006. The statistic prediction model and prediction experiments of the summer rain over China by multiple factors and multi-scale variations[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 30(4):596-608.
    [39] 平凡, 罗哲贤, 琚建华. 2006. 长江流域汛期降水年代际和年际尺度变化影响因子的差异[J]. 科学通报, 51(1):104-109. Ping Fan, Luo Zhexian, Ju Jianhua. 2006. Differences between dynamics factors for interannual and decadal variations of rainfall over the Yangtze River valley during flood seasons[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(8):994-999.
    [40] 钱维宏, 陆波, 祝从文. 2010. 全球平均温度在21 世纪将怎样变化?[J]. 科学通报, 55(16):1532-1537. Qian Weihong, Lu Bo, Zhu Congwen. 2010. How would global mean temperature change in the 21st century?[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(19):1963-1967.
    [41] 施能, 鲁建军, 朱乾根. 1996. 东亚冬、夏季风百年强度指数及其气候变化[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 19(2):168-177. Shi Neng, Lu Jianjun, Zhu Qiangen. 1996. East Asian winter/summer monsoon intensity indices with their climatic change in 1873-1989[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese), 19(2):168-177.
    [42] 施能, 杨永胜. 1998. 1873~1996 年东亚冬、夏季风强度指数及其主要特征[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 21(2):208-214. Shi Neng, Yang Yongsheng. Main characteristics of East Asian summer/winter monsoon index for 1873-1996[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese), 21(2):208-214.
    [43] 施能. 2002. 气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法[M].(第二版). 北京:气象出版社, 25-27. Shi Neng. 2002. Multianalysis in Meteorological Research and Prediction(in Chinese)[M].(2nd ed.). Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 25-27.
    [44] Smith T M, Reynolds R W. 2004. Improved extended reconstruction of SST(1854-1997)[J]. J. Climate, 17(12):2466-2477.
    [45] 孙秀荣, 陈隆勋, 何金海. 2002. 东亚海陆热力差指数及其与环流和降水的年际变化关系[J]. 气象学报, 60(2):164-172. Sun Xiurong, Chen Longxun, He Jinhai. 2002. Index of land-sea thermal difference and its relation to interannual variation of summer circulation and rainfall over East Asian[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 60(2):164-172.
    [46] 陶诗言, 李吉顺, 王昂生. 1997. 东亚季风与我国洪涝灾害[J]. 中国减灾, 7(4):17-20, 24. Tao Shiyan, Li Jishun, Wang Angsheng. 1997.
    [47] East Asian monsoon and flood disaster in China[J]. Disaster Reduction in China(in Chinese), 7(4):17-20, 24.
    [48] 陶诗言, 张庆云. 1998. 亚洲冬夏季风对ENSO 事件的响应[J]. 大气科学, 22(4):399-407. Tao Shiyan, Zhang Qingyun. 1998. Response of the Asian winter and summer monsoon to ENSO events[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 22(4):399-407.
    [49] 王会军, 范可. 2006. 南半球对流层上层纬向风与东亚夏季风环流[J]. 科学通报, 51(13):1595-1600. Wang Huijun, Fan Ke. 2006. Southern Hemisphere mean zonal wind in upper troposphere and East Asian summer monsoon circulation[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(12):1508-1514.
    [50] 王会军, 范可. 2013. 东亚季风近几十年来的主要变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 37(2):313-318. Wang Huijun, Fan Ke. 2013. Recent changes in the East Asian monsoon[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 37(2):313-318.
    [51] 王黎娟, 何金海, 管兆勇, 等. 2008. 国内东亚热带-副热带季风的研究进展[J]. 热带气象学报, 24(6):724-731. Wang Lijuan, He Jinhai, Guan Zhaoyong, et al. 2008. Review of the Chinese research on the East Asian tropical and subtropical monsoons[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese), 24(6):724-731.
    [52] Wang H J. 2001. The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970s[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18(3):376-386.
    [53] Wang H J. 2002. The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relations[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 19(1):1-11.
    [54] Wang B, Wu R G, Fu X H. 2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J]. J. Climate, 13(9):1517-1536.
    [55] Wang B, Wu R G, Lau K M. 2001. Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon:Contrasts between the Indian and the western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons[J]. J. Climate, 14(20):4073-4090.
    [56] Webster P J, Yang S. 1992. Monsoon and ENSO:Selectively interactive systems[J]. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118(507):877-926.
    [57] 魏凤英. 1999. 现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M] 北京:气象出版社, 194-201. Wei Fengying. 1999. Technology of Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction of Modern Climate(in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 194-201.
    [58] Wu B Y, Zhang R H, Ding Y H, et al. 2008. Distinct modes of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. J. Climate, 21(5):1122-1138.
    [59] 徐建军, 朱乾根, 施能. 1997. 近百年东亚季风长期变化中主周期振荡的奇异谱分析[J]. 气象学报, 55(5):620-627. Xu Jianjun, Zhu Qiangen, Shi Neng. 1997. The singular spectral analysis of periodic oscillation in long-term variation of East-Asian monsoon in recent century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 55(5):620-627.
    [60] 徐建军, 王东晓. 2000. 印度洋-太平洋海温的年际、年代际异常及其对亚洲季风的影响[J]. 海洋学报, 22(3):34-43. Xu Jianjun, Wang Dongxiao. 2000. Diagnosis of interannual and interdecadal variation in SST over Indian-Pacific Ocean and numerical simulation of their effect on Asian summer monsoon[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica(in Chinese), 22(3):34-43.
    [61] 徐桂玉, 杨修群, 孙旭光. 2005. 华北降水年代际、年际变化特征与北半球大气环流的联系[J]. 地球物理学报, 48(3):511-518. Xu Guiyu, Yang Xiuqun, Sun Xuguang. 2005. Interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of rainfall in north China and its relation with the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulations[J]. Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese), 48(3):511-518.
    [62] Xu J J, Chan J C L. 2002. Interannual and interdecadal variability of winter precipitation over China in relation to global sea level pressure anomalies[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 19(5):914-926.
    [63] 薛峰. 2005. 南半球环流变化对东亚夏季风的影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 10(3):401-408. Xue Feng. 2005. Influence of the southern circulation on East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 10(3):401-408.
    [64] Xue F, Jiang D B, Lang X M, et al. 2003. Influence of the Mascarene high and Australian high on the summer monsoon in East Asia:Ensemble simulation[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20(5):799-809.
    [65] 杨培才, 周秀骥. 2005. 气候系统的非平稳行为和预测理论[J]. 气象学报, 63(5):556-570. Yang Peicai, Zhou Xiuji. 2005. On nonstationary behaviors and prediction theory of climate systems[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 63(5):556-570.
    [66] Yang S, Lau K M, Sankar-Rao M. 1996. Precursory signals associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon[J]. J. Climate, 9(5):949-964.
    [67] 于淑秋, 林学椿, 施晓晖. 2008. 东亚夏季风的年际变化及其与环流和降水的关系[J]. 地理学报, 63(7):751-760. Yu Shuqiu, Lin Xuechun, Shi Xiaohui. 2008. Interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon and the relationship with atmospheric circulation and rainfall[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese), 63(7):751-760.
    [68] 袁媛, 李崇银. 2009. 热带印度洋海温异常不同模态对南海夏季风爆发的可能影响[J]. 大气科学, 33(2):325-336. Yuan Yuan, Li Chongyin. 2009. Possible impacts of the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomaly modes on the South China Sea summer monsoon onset[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese), 33(2):325-336.
    [69] 尤卫红, 杞明辉, 段旭. 1999. 小波变换在短期气候预测模型研究中的应用[J]. 高原气象, 18(1):39-46. You Weihong, Qi Minghui, Duan Xu. 1999. Wavelet transforms' applications to researches on model of short range climate forecast[J]. Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese), 18(1):39-46.
    [70] 赵汉光, 张先恭. 1996. 东亚季风和我国夏季雨带的关系[J]. 气象, 22(4):8-12. Zhao Hanguang, Zhang Xiangong. 1996. The relationship between the summer rain belt in China and the East Asia monsoon[J]. Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese), 22(4):8-12.
    [71] 张庆云, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭. 2003. 东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J]. 气象学报, 61(4):559-568. Zhang Qingyun, Tao Shiyan, Chen Lieting. 2003. The interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 61(4):559-568.
    [72] 张庆云, 王媛. 2006. 冬夏东亚季风环流对太平洋热状况的响应[J]. 气候与环境研究, 11(4):487-498. Zhang Qingyun, Wang Yuan. 2006.
    [73] The response of East Asian monsoon circulation between winter and summer to sea surface temperature over the Pacific Ocean[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese), 11(4):487-498.
    [74] 张人禾, 李强. 2004. 热带海洋变异对东亚季风的影响[J]. 气象, 30(12):22-26. Zhang Renhe, Li Qiang. 2004. Impact of sea temperature variability of tropical oceans on East Asian monsoon[J]. Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese), 30(12):22-26.
    [75] 张人禾, 武炳义, 赵平, 等. 2008. 中国东部夏季气候20 世纪80 年代后期的年代际转型及其可能成因[J]. 气象学报, 66(5):697-706.Zhang Renhe, Wu Bingyi, Zhao Ping, et al. 2008. The decadal shift of the summer climate in the late 1980s over East China and its possible causes[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 66(5):697-706.
    [76] 郑菲, 李建平. 2012. 前冬南半球环状模对春季华南降水的影响及其机理[J]. 地球物理学报, 55(11):3542-3557. Zheng Fei, Li Jianping. 2012. Impact of preceding boreal winter Southern Hemisphere annular mode on spring precipitation over South China and related mechanism[J]. Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese), 55(11):3542-3557.
    [77] 祝从文, 何金海, 吴国雄. 2000. 东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J]. 气象学报, 58(4):391-402. Zhu Congwen, He Jinhai, Wu Guoxiong. 2000. East Asian monsoon index and its inter-annual relationship with large scale thermal dynamic circulation[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese), 58(4):91-402.
  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  2398
  • HTML全文浏览量:  4
  • PDF下载量:  2173
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-09-24

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回