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冬季北大西洋涛动与中国北方极端低温相关性的年代际变化

韩方红 陈海山 马鹤翟

韩方红, 陈海山, 马鹤翟. 冬季北大西洋涛动与中国北方极端低温相关性的年代际变化[J]. 大气科学, 2018, 42(2): 239-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1705.17101
引用本文: 韩方红, 陈海山, 马鹤翟. 冬季北大西洋涛动与中国北方极端低温相关性的年代际变化[J]. 大气科学, 2018, 42(2): 239-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1705.17101
Fanghong HAN, Haishan CHEN, Hedi MA. Interdecadal Variation in the Relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and Extreme Low Temperature over Northern China in Winter[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(2): 239-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1705.17101
Citation: Fanghong HAN, Haishan CHEN, Hedi MA. Interdecadal Variation in the Relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and Extreme Low Temperature over Northern China in Winter[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(2): 239-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1705.17101

冬季北大西洋涛动与中国北方极端低温相关性的年代际变化

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1705.17101
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划重点专项 2016YFA0600702

详细信息
    作者简介:

    韩方红, 女, 1991年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事短期气候预测与气候变化研究。E-mail:fangh0919@126.com

    通讯作者:

    陈海山, E-mail:haishan@nuist.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P434

Interdecadal Variation in the Relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and Extreme Low Temperature over Northern China in Winter

Funds: 

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFA0600702

  • 摘要: 本文基于中国地面气温日值网格数据集(V2.0),采用滑动相关和相关分析等方法,揭示了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)对中国北方极端低温影响的事实,进一步证实了东北后冬(1、2月)冷日(夜)与同期NAO相关性的年代际变化。研究发现:在20世纪80年代中期前,东北后冬冷日(夜)频发,与NAO的相关性较好,而在80年代中期后东北后冬冷日(夜)少发,与NAO的相关性减弱。其中,1月在1969~1988阶段,东北冷日(夜)与NAO的相关性最好,相关区域显著,相关系数可达-0.68(-0.66),而在1989~2009阶段二者相关性最弱,相关区域不显著。进一步分析发现,在不同年代际背景下,NAO引起的大气环流异常是导致东北1月冷日(夜)与1月NAO相关性年代际变化的重要原因。相关性较好的年代,NAO引起的环流异常有利于冷涡等天气系统维持在贝加尔湖到东北一带,使东北地区气温偏低,冷日(夜)频发;相关性较弱的年代,不利于冷空气南下,使东北地区气温偏高,冷日(夜)少发。
  • 图  1  中国北方极端低温指数与北大西洋涛动指数(NAOI)相关系数空间分布:(a、e)12~2月;(b、f)12月;(c、g)1月;(d、h)2月。其中(a–d)为冷日;(e–h)为冷夜。打点区域表示通过0.05显著性检验,下同

    Figure  1.  Spatial distributions of correlation coefficients between North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and extreme low temperature index TX10P (cold days) over northern China in (a) winter (DJF, December–February), (b) December (Dec), (c) January (Jan), (d) February (Feb). (e–h) are the same as (a–d) but for correlation coefficients between NAOI and TN10P (cold nights). Black dots denote significance at the 95% confidence level, the same below

    图  2  中国北方平均气温与NAOI相关系数空间分布:(a)12~2月;(b)12月;(c)1月;(d)2月

    Figure  2.  Spatial distributions of correlation coefficients between NAOI and mean temperature over northern China in (a) DJF, (b) December, (c) January, (d) February

    图  3  东北极端低温指数EOF1时间序列:(a、d)12月;(b、e)1月;(c、f)2月。其中(a–c)为冷日;(d–f)为冷夜。曲线代表 11点高斯滤波,直线代表趋势线

    Figure  3.  Time series of EOF1 of extreme low temperature index TX10P over Northeast China (NEC) in (a) December, (b) January, (c) February. (d–f) are the same as (a–c), but for TN10P. Curves indicate results of 11-point Gaussian filtering, straight lines indicate the trend line

    图  4  东北后冬(1、2月)极端低温指数EOF1时间序列与NAOI滑动相关曲线(乘以−1.0):(a)冷日;(b)冷夜。滑动窗口取21年,虚线为0.05显著性水平线

    Figure  4.  Sliding correlations (multiplied by −1.0) in a 21-year window between NAOI and time series of EOF1 of extreme low temperature indices over NEC in late winter: (a) TX10P; (b) TN10P. Dotted line indicates significance at the 95% confidence level

    图  5  东北1月极端低温指数与1月NAOI相关系数空间分布:(a、c)1969~1988;(b、d)1989~2009。其中(a、b)冷日,(c、d)为冷夜

    Figure  5.  Spatial distributions of correlation coefficients between NAOI and extreme low temperature index TX10P over NEC in January for the periods (a) 1969–1988 and (b) 1989–2009. (c, d) are the same as (a, b), but for correlation coefficients between NAOI and TN10P

    图  6  东北1月极端低温指数EOF1时间序列与500 hPa位势高度异常场回归系数(单位:gpm):(a、c)1969~1988;(b、d)1989~2009。其中(a、b)为冷日,(c、d)为冷夜

    Figure  6.  Regressions of geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa (units: gpm) against time series of EOF1 of extreme low temperature index TX10P over NEC in January for the periods (a)1969–1988 and (b)1989–2009. (c, d) are the same as (a, b), but for TN10P

    图  7  1月NAOI与500 hPa位势高度异常场回归系数(单位:gpm):(a)1969~1988;(b)1989~2009

    Figure  7.  Regressions of geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa (units: gpm) against NAOI in January for the periods (a) 1969–1988 and (b) 1989–2009

    表  1  极端温度指数定义

    Table  1.   Definition of extreme temperature indices

    指数 名称 定义 单位
    TX90P
    TX10P
    TN90P
    TN10P
    暖日
    冷日
    暖夜
    冷夜
    日最高温度>90%分位值的天数
    日最高温度<10%分位值的天数
    日最低温度>90%分位值的天数
    日最低温度<10%分位值的天数
    d
    d
    d
    d
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  东北极端低温指数EOF1时间序列与北大西洋涛动指数(NAOI)相关系数

    Table  2.   Correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the time series of EOF1 (the first EOF mode) of extreme low temperature indices over Northeast China (NEC)

    极端低温指数与NAOI的相关系数
    时间尺度/月 TX10P TN10P
    12 −0.04 −0.03
    1 −0.39** −0.34*
    2 −0.49** −0.50**
    *代表通过0.05显著性水平检验。
    **代表通过0.01显著性水平检验。
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-01-03
  • 网络出版日期:  2017-06-01
  • 刊出日期:  2018-03-15

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