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强El Niño衰减年东亚夏季风的季节内变化:1998年和2016年的对比分析

薛峰 段欣妤 苏同华

薛峰, 段欣妤, 苏同华. 强El Niño衰减年东亚夏季风的季节内变化:1998年和2016年的对比分析[J]. 大气科学, 2018, 42(6): 1407-1420. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1711.17205
引用本文: 薛峰, 段欣妤, 苏同华. 强El Niño衰减年东亚夏季风的季节内变化:1998年和2016年的对比分析[J]. 大气科学, 2018, 42(6): 1407-1420. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1711.17205
Feng XUE, Xinyu DUAN, Tonghua SU. Intraseasonal Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon during Strong El Niño Decaying Summer: Comparison between 1998 and 2016[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(6): 1407-1420. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1711.17205
Citation: Feng XUE, Xinyu DUAN, Tonghua SU. Intraseasonal Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon during Strong El Niño Decaying Summer: Comparison between 1998 and 2016[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(6): 1407-1420. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1711.17205

强El Niño衰减年东亚夏季风的季节内变化:1998年和2016年的对比分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1711.17205
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 41475052

国家自然科学基金项目 41405056

详细信息
    作者简介:

    薛峰, 男, 1962年出生, 研究员、博导, 从事东亚季风研究。E-mail:fxue@lasg.iap.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P466

Intraseasonal Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon during Strong El Niño Decaying Summer: Comparison between 1998 and 2016

Funds: 

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41475052

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41405056

  • 摘要: 本文对比分析了1998年和2016年这两个强El Niño衰减年东亚夏季风的季节内变化。结果表明,在6~7月期间,由于热带印度洋海温偏高、对流偏强,造成西太平洋暖池对流偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压(副高)偏西偏强,长江流域降水偏多,华南偏少,东亚夏季风异常具有典型的El Niño衰减年特征。但两年的8月份有很大差异,虽然1998年8月与6~7月相似,但2016年8月份则完全不同。受乌拉尔地区异常反气旋的影响,源自西伯利亚东部的北风异常穿越东亚并直抵暖池地区,造成副高分裂并减弱东退,同时激发暖池对流发展,而对流的发展则进一步促使副高减弱。因此,2016年8月东亚夏季风异常与1998年8月相反,中国北方夏季降水异常也呈现很大差异。另外,1998年热带大西洋偏暖,并通过热带环流变化影响到东亚夏季风异常,其强迫作用与热带印度洋类似。而2016年大西洋海温异常较弱,对东亚夏季风影响也较弱。因此,El Niño对东亚夏季风的影响不仅与其强度有关,还与El Niño衰减之后造成的印度洋和大西洋海温异常有关。本文的分析结果表明,即使在强El Niño衰减年夏季,由于El Niño之间的个性差异以及其他因子的影响,东亚夏季风季节内变化仍然能呈现出显著差异,特别是在8月份。因此,在预测东亚夏季风异常时,宜将6~7月和8月分别考虑。此外,为进一步提高东亚夏季风预测水平,除传统的季度预测外,还需要进一步加强季节内尺度的预测。
  • 图  1  1997~1998(实线)和2015~2016(虚线)Niño3.4指数(单位:℃)。括号里的0和1分别表示El Niño发展年和衰减年

    Figure  1.  Niño3.4 index (units: ℃) during 1997–1998 (solid line) and 2015–2016 (dashed line). The numbers 0 and 1 in brackets indicate the developing and decaying years, respectively

    图  2  副高指数随时间的变化曲线:(a)脊线指数(单位:°N);(b)西伸指数(单位:°E);(c)面积指数(无量纲)。实线:气候平均(Cmean);长虚线:1998年;短虚线:2016年

    Figure  2.  Time series of the western Pacific subtropical high index: (a) Ridge line index (units: °N); (b) westward extension index (units: °E); (c) area index (dimensionless). Solid line: climatological mean (Cmean); long dashed line: 1998; short dashed line: 2016

    图  3  (a) 6月、(b)7月、(c)8月、(d)夏季(6~8月)平均的副高(单位:gpm)变化。实线:气候平均;长虚线:1998年;短虚线:2016年

    Figure  3.  The mean WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high, units: gpm): (a) June; (b) July; (c) August; (d) summer (June–August). Solid line: climatological mean; long dashed line: 1998; short dashed line: 2016

    图  4  1998年(左列)和2016年(右列)中国区域降水异常百分率(单位:%):(a、b)6月;(c、d)7月;(e、f)8月;(g、h)夏季平均。填色区为异常百分率≥40%或≤−40%的区域

    Figure  4.  Percentage rainfall anomalies (units: %) over China in 1998 (left panels) and 2016 (right panels): (a, b) June; (c, d) July; (e, f) August; (g, h) summer mean. Regions above 40% or below −40% are shaded

    图  5  110°E~130°E纬向平均的候平均降水异常(单位:mm d-1)的纬度—时间剖面:(a)1998年;(b)2016年

    Figure  5.  Latitude–time cross sections of pentad mean rainfall anomalies (units: mm d-1) averaged over 110°E–130°E: (a) 1998; (b) 2016

    图  6  夏季平均海表温度异常分布(单位:℃):(a)1998年;(b)2016年

    Figure  6.  Summer mean sea surface temperature anomalies (units: ℃): (a) 1998; (b) 2016

    图  7  11.25°N~18.75°N经向平均的候平均降水异常(单位:mm d-1)的时间—经度剖面:(a)1998年;(b)2016年

    Figure  7.  Time–longitude cross sections of pentad mean rainfall anomalies (units: mm d-1) averaged over 11.25°N–18.75°N: (a) 1998; (b) 2016

    图  8  8月降水异常分布(单位:mm d-1):(a)1998年;(b)2016年

    Figure  8.  Rainfall anomalies (units: mm d-1) in August: (a) 1998; (b) 2016

    图  9  2016年第43候(7月30至8月3日)的(a)850 hPa风场异常(单位:m s-1)、(b)降水异常(单位mm d-1)和(c)副高(单位:gpm)。图c中实线为2016年,虚线为气候平均

    Figure  9.  (a) 850-hPa wind anomalies (units: m s-1), (b) rainfall anomalies (units: mm d-1), and (c) the western Pacific subtropical high (units: gpm) in Pentad 43 (from 30 July to 3 August) of 2016. In Fig. 10c, the solid and dashed contours represent 2016 and the climatological mean, respectively

    图  10  图 9,但为2016年第45候(8月9~13日)

    Figure  10.  As in Fig. 9, but for Pentad 45 (9–13 August) in 2016

    图  11  8月850 hPa风场异常(单位:m s-1):(a)1998年;(b)2016年

    Figure  11.  850-hPa wind anomalies (units: m s-1) in August: (a) 1998; (b) 2016

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  • 收稿日期:  2017-07-30
  • 网络出版日期:  2017-11-27
  • 刊出日期:  2018-11-15

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