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热带大西洋海温异常季节内演变对中国江南地区夏季持续性高温事件影响的初步研究

王慧美 刘舸 彭京备 纪立人

王慧美, 刘舸, 彭京备, 等. 2021. 热带大西洋海温异常季节内演变对中国江南地区夏季持续性高温事件影响的初步研究[J]. 大气科学, 45(2): 300−314 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.19235
引用本文: 王慧美, 刘舸, 彭京备, 等. 2021. 热带大西洋海温异常季节内演变对中国江南地区夏季持续性高温事件影响的初步研究[J]. 大气科学, 45(2): 300−314 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.19235
WANG Huimei, LIU Ge, PENG Jingbei, et al. 2021. Preliminary Study on the Effect of Intraseasonal Evolution of the Tropical Atlantic SST Anomalies on Summer Persistent Heatwave Events over the Area South of the Yangtze River [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(2): 300−314 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.19235
Citation: WANG Huimei, LIU Ge, PENG Jingbei, et al. 2021. Preliminary Study on the Effect of Intraseasonal Evolution of the Tropical Atlantic SST Anomalies on Summer Persistent Heatwave Events over the Area South of the Yangtze River [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(2): 300−314 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.19235

热带大西洋海温异常季节内演变对中国江南地区夏季持续性高温事件影响的初步研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.19235
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1505706,气象预报业务关键技术发展专项YBGJXM-2019-04-03,中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金和基本科研业务费项目2019KJ022、2019Z008
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王慧美,女,1993年出生,博士研究生,主要从事短期气候预测与青藏高原天气气候研究。E-mail: hui_meiw@163.com

    通讯作者:

    刘舸,E-mail: liuge@cma.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P466

Preliminary Study on the Effect of Intraseasonal Evolution of the Tropical Atlantic SST Anomalies on Summer Persistent Heatwave Events over the Area South of the Yangtze River

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1505706), Development Fund of Key Technologies for Meteorological Forecast Operations (Grant YBGJXM-2019-04-03), Basic Research Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grants 2019KJ022, 2019Z008)
  • 摘要: 中国江南地区是高温热浪灾害的高影响区。以往的一些研究发现了不同海域海温异常在年际或年代际尺度上的变化对中国南方夏季平均温度异常的影响效应。但是,关于这些关键海域海温季节内尺度变化对江南地区高温事件发生和维持影响的研究尚不多见。为此,本文利用中国站点观测、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析以及美国国家海洋大气管理局(NOAA)海温等资料,首先以2016年江南地区夏季2次高温事件为例(分别发生在7月21日至31日和8月15日至25日),重点探讨了热带大西洋海温季节内变化的可能贡献。在此基础上,基于1981~2016年多高温事件合成结果,进一步分析了热带大西洋海温季节内变化影响江南高温事件的可能链接过程。研究发现,热带西大西洋暖海温异常在季节内尺度上的发展与维持有利于在欧亚大陆激发出较为稳定的Rossby波列结构,使东亚及其沿海地区为深厚的高压系统控制,进而引发江南地区持续性高温事件。这种热带大西洋暖海温的阶段性增强与维持及其相应的稳定Rossby波列结构超前于持续性高温事件:在热带大西洋海温显著升高1个月之内,江南地区可能出现持续性高温事件。在季节内尺度上,热带大西洋显著暖海温异常出现明显的阶段性增强之后10天左右,北印度洋暖海温也出现了阶段性增强。这暗示热带大西洋热力异常除通过直接激发欧亚大陆Rossby波列之外,还有可能通过影响热带印度洋海温的阶段性异常,进而对江南地区高温事件的发生和维持产生一定影响。另外,在厄尔尼诺衰减并向拉尼娜转变阶段,热带中东太平洋冷海温异常和北印度洋暖海温异常在季节内的协同阶段性变化可能也对持续性高温事件有贡献。上述关键区海温的季节内变化对中国江南地区高温事件具有一定的前期指示意义,但它们的具体影响过程,特别是在季节内尺度上的协同影响效应和物理过程,尚需未来进一步研究。
  • 图  1  2016年中国东部地区夏季(6~8月)平均(a)气温距平、(b)去趋势后的气温距平以及(c)最高气温空间分布(填色),单位:°C。其中,黑色方框表示江南地区(29°N~30°N,116°E~122°E)和(26°N~29°N,114°E~122°E),黑点表示观测站点位置

    Figure  1.  Spatial distribution of summer (June−August) mean (a) temperature anomalies, (b) detrend temperature anomalies, and (c) maximum temperature in eastern China in 2016 (shaded, units: °C). Black boxes represent the Jiangnan region (29°N−30°N, 116°E−122°E) and (26°N−29°N, 114°E−122°E), dark spots denote the locations of observational stations in the Jiangnan region

    图  2  2016年夏季江南地区(a)逐日气温(黑色实线)与距平(红色虚线)时间序列,(b)逐日最高气温(黑色实线)与气候平均(红色虚线)时间序列(单位:°C)。灰色阴影表示持续性高温事件的发生时段,(a)中黑色直线和红色虚直线分别为气温30°C线和气温距平2°C线,(b)中黑色直线为最高气温35°C线

    Figure  2.  (a) Time series of summer daily temperature (black solid line) and temperature anomaly (red dashed line); (b) Time series of summer daily maximum temperature (black solid line) in 2016 and climatological mean maximum temperature (red dashed line; units: °C). Gray shaded bars indicate the periods of two persistent heatwave events, and black straight line and red dashed straight line in (a) denote 30°C line of temperature and 2°C line of temperature anomaly, respectively; black straight line in (b) denotes 35°C line of maximum temperature

    图  3  2016年夏季(a、c)第一次和(b、d)第二次高温事件期间的平均(a、b)500 hPa和(c、d)200 hPa位势高度场(黑色细实线)及其距平(彩色阴影),单位:gpm。(a、b)中黑色粗实线为5880 gpm线,绿色粗虚线为气候平均5880 gpm线,(c、d)中黑色粗实线为12500 gpm线,绿色粗虚线为气候平均12500 gpm线

    Figure  3.  (a, b) 500-hPa and (c, d) 200-hPa geopotential height (thin solid line) and its anomalies (color shaded) during the periods of (a, c) the first and (b, d) the second heatwave events (units: gpm). Black thick solid contours in (a, b) and (c, d) indicate the isolines of 5880 gpm and 12500 gpm, respectively; green thick dashed lines in (a, b) and (c, d) indicate climatological mean isolines of 5880 gpm and 12500 gpm, respectively

    图  4  2016年夏季27.5°N~32.5°N平均(a)500 hPa等压面上的5880 gpm,(b)200 hPa等压面上的12500 gpm等高线的逐日变化。(a、b)中红色实线分别为气候平均5880 gpm和12500 gpm等高线;绿色虚线分别指示2016年两次持续性高温事件的起止时间:7月21~31日和8月15~25日

    Figure  4.  Longitude–time Hovmöller diagram along 27.5°N−32.5°N for 5880-gpm (500 hPa) and (b) 12500-gpm (200 hPa) isolines during the summer of 2016. Red lines in (a) and (b) denote climatological mean isolines of 5880 gpm and 12500 gpm, respectively; green dashed lines indicate the start–end time of two heatwave events in 2016 (July 21 to July 31 and August 15 to August 25)

    图  5  16次高温事件发生期合成的海温异常(填色,单位:°C)空间分布。斜线区域表示达到95%的置信水平,黑框为三个关键海域,从左到右分别为热带中东太平洋(5°S~5°N, 170°W~80°W)、热带西大西洋(10°S~10°N, 60°W~35°W)和北印度洋(10°N~25°N, 60°E~100°E)

    Figure  5.  Spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies (shaded, units: °C), which is the composite of 16 heatwave events. Oblique dashed lines indicate the composite anomalies statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; black boxes denote the three key sea areas: the tropical central eastern Pacific (5°S−5°N, 170°W−80°W), the tropical western Atlantic Ocean (10°S−10°N, 60°W−35°W), and the northern Indian Ocean (10°N−25°N, 60°E−100°E) from left to right

    图  6  (a)2016年夏季热带大西洋(10°S~10°N)海温距平逐日演变(单位:°C);(b)2016年夏季热带西大西洋(10°S~10°N,60°W~35°W)海温距平与江南逐日气温距平序列的超前滞后相关。(a)中绿色虚线分别指示2016年两次持续性高温事件的起止时间;(b)中绿色虚线表示相关系数达到99%的置信水平,横坐标负(正)值表示大西洋海温超前(滞后)江南气温的时间

    Figure  6.  (a) Longitude–time Hovmöller diagram along 10°S−10°N for sea surface temperature anomalies (units: °C) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the summer of 2016; (b) lead−lag correlation coefficient between the tropical western Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (10°S−10°N, 60°W−35°W) and Jiangnan daily temperature anomaly for the summer of 2016. Green dashed lines in (a) indicate start–end time of two heatwave events in 2016; green dashed lines in (b) indicate lead–lag correlation coefficients statistically significant at the 99% confidence level, the negative (positive) value of abscissa indicates the time when the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean leads (lags) the temperature in Jiangnan

    图  7  (a)热带西大西洋强暖异常(≥0.30°C)对应的8次高温事件的热带大西洋(10°S~10°N)海温距平逐日演变合成(单位:°C);(b)同图6b,但为热带西大西洋强暖异常(≥0.30°C)所在的7个年份的合成。(a)中斜线区域表示达到99%的置信水平,灰色虚线表示高温事件发生期中点,(b)中绿色虚线表示达到99%的置信水平,横坐标负(正)值表示大西洋海温超前(滞后)江南气温的时间

    Figure  7.  (a) Longitude-time Hovmöller diagram along 10°S−10°N for sea surface temperature anomalies (units: °C) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which isthe composite of eight heatwave events corresponding to strongly warmer (≥0.30°C) anomalies in the tropical western Atlantic Ocean; (b) same as in Fig. 6b, but for the composite of 7 years corresponding to strongly warmer (≥0.30°C) anomalies in the tropical western Atlantic Ocean. Oblique dashed lines in (a) indicate the composite anomalies statistically significant at the 99% confidence level; gray dashed horizontal line in (a) denotes the time middle point for the period of heatwave events; green dashed lines in (b) indicate lead–lag correlation coefficients statistically significant at the 99% confidence level, the negative (positive) value of abscissa indicates the time when the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean leads (lags) the temperature in Jiangnan

    图  8  热带西大西洋强暖异常(≥0.30°C)对应的8次高温事件发生期间合成的(a)200 hPa和(b)500 hPa位势高度异常(阴影;单位:gpm)。打点区域表示超过95%的置信水平

    Figure  8.  Composited (a) 200-hPa and (b) 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies (shaded; units, gpm) for the eight heatwave events corresponding to strongly warmer (≥0.30°C) anomalies in the tropical western Atlantic Ocean. The dots represent the composite anomalies statistically significant at the 95% confidence level

    图  9  热带西大西洋强暖异常(≥0.30°C)对应的8次高温事件前(a)31~40天,(b)21~30天,(c)11~20天,(d)1~10天合成的200 hPa平均位势高度异常(阴影;单位:gpm)

    Figure  9.  Composited 200-hPa geopotential height anomalies (shaded; units, gpm) (a) 31−40, (b) 21−30, (c) 11−20, and (d) 1−10 days prior to the eight heatwave events corresponding to strongly warmer (≥0.30°C) anomalies in the tropical western Atlantic Ocean. The dots represent the composite anomalies statistically significant at the 95% confidence level

    图  10  (a)北印度洋强暖异常(≥0.30°C)对应的9次高温事件合成的10°N~25°N纬度平均海温异常(单位:°C)逐日演变;(b)热带中东太平洋出现厄尔尼诺衰减并向拉尼娜转变过程对应的8次高温事件合成的5°S~5°N纬度平均海温异常(单位:°C)逐日演变。斜线区域表示达到99%的置信水平,灰色虚线表示高温事件发生期中点

    Figure  10.  (a) Longitude–time Hovmöller diagram along 10°N−25°N for sea surface temperature anomalies (units: °C), which is the composite of nine heatwave events corresponding to strongly warmer (≥0.30°C) anomalies in the North Indian Ocean; (b) Same as in (a), but for that along 5°S−5°N for sea surface temperature anomalies (units: °C), which is the composite of eight heatwave events corresponding to the period of El Niño decay and transition to La Niña in the tropical central eastern Pacific. Oblique dashed lines indicate the composite anomalies statistically significant at the 99% confidence level; gray dashed horizontal line denotes the time middle point for the period of heatwave events

    表  1  1981~2016年江南地区夏季持续性高温事件的起止时间和持续天数

    Table  1.   Start–end time and duration of summer persistent heatwave events over Jiangnan during 1981−2016

    年份高温期持续天数/d年份高温期持续天数/d
    1983年8月8~17日102007年7月24日至
    8月2日
    10
    1988年7月2~20日192009年7月16~23日8
    1989年7月29日至
    8月7日
    82010年7月13~20日9
    1990年7月16~29日142011年7月23~30日8
    1991年7月22~29日82012年7月2~14日13
    1998年8月8~17日102013年8月4~14日11
    2003年7月10~17日252016年7月21~31日22
    7月19日至
    8月4日
    8月15~25日
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  江南高温事件期间热带大西洋、北印度洋和热带中东太平海温异常(单位:°C),该异常基于1982~2010年气候平均的同期海温

    Table  2.   Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Atlantic, North Indian Ocean, and the tropical central eastern Pacific during the periods of heatwave events over Jiangnan (units: °C); SSTAs are based on the climatological (1982−2010) mean of SST during the same periods

    高温事件编号海温异常/°C
    热带西大西洋北印度洋热带中东太平洋
    19830.250.430.69
    19880.210.54−1.76
    1989−0.21−0.27−0.43
    19900.04−0.45−0.08
    1991−0.44−0.030.58
    19980.720.52−0.59
    2003-10.210.29−0.07
    2003-20.380.370.30
    20070.190.56−0.62
    20090.370.370.85
    20100.630.87−0.89
    20110.400.180.03
    20120.110.060.34
    20130.36−0.36−0.56
    2016-10.780.45−0.47
    2016-20.560.51−0.43
    注:三个关键海区范围见图5黑框
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-05-19
  • 录用日期:  2020-05-19
  • 网络出版日期:  2020-11-24
  • 刊出日期:  2021-03-18

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