2016年梅雨持续性强降水期间大气环流稳定分量研究

孙树鹏; 封国林; 郑志海; 谢均; 赵俊虎

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.19167

2016年梅雨持续性强降水期间大气环流稳定分量研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.19167

孙树鹏^1,,
封国林^{2, 4},
郑志海^2, ,,
谢均³,
赵俊虎²

1.
天津市津南区气象局，天津 300350
2.
国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081
3.
天津市气候中心，天津 300074
4.
南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海），珠海 519000

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2017YFC1502303，国家自然科学基金项目41805061、42075017

详细信息

作者简介:
孙树鹏，男，1983年出生，高级工程师，主要从事短期气候预测研究。E-mail: sun_sp2008@163.com

通讯作者:
郑志海，E-mail: zhengzh@cma.gov.cn

中国气象局预报与网络司. 2014. 关于印发《梅雨监测业务规定》的通知, 气预函（2014）28号 [R].
中图分类号: P466
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-05-29
- 录用日期: 2020-06-22
- 网络出版日期: 2020-07-09

Study on the Stable Components of Atmospheric Circulation during the Continuous Heavy Rainfall of Meiyu in 2016

Shupeng SUN^1
,,
Guolin FENG^{2, 4},
Zhihai ZHENG^{2
, ,},
Jun XIE³,
Junhu ZHAO²

1.
Tianjin Jinnan Meteorological Service, Tianjin 300350
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
3.
Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074
4.
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai 519000

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2017YFC1502303), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grants 41805061, 42075017)

摘要

摘要: 梅雨降水具有显著的阶段变化特征，研究持续强降水期间的关键环流稳定分量，对于分析和预测梅雨降水具有重要意义。利用NCEP-DOE1979～2016年逐日再分析资料，对2016年梅雨持续强降水期间位势高度场、风场和相对湿度场进行分析，提取环流系统的关键稳定分量，并对其空间结构、演变特征及更长时间尺度的背景形势进行分析，为梅雨区阶段性强降水的延伸期预报提供依据和参考。研究发现：（1）在位势高度场稳定分量中存在的“三极”分布形势，是维持2016年梅雨持续强降水的关键系统。“三极”分别对应着乌拉尔山阻塞高压、鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压以及偏东偏强的南亚高压和偏西偏强的西太平洋副热带高压（副高）。这种配置结构有利于冷暖空气在梅雨区交汇形成持续性强降水。（2）在中高纬度两个正距平区之间，是相对深厚的负距平区，有利于建立冷空气的向南输送通道，同时相对湿度场稳定分量表明北支气流对水汽的输送和汇聚作用对于梅雨区持续降水起到重要作用。（3）中低纬度的正距平区域呈纬向带状分布，且主要存在于对流层中高层，在梅雨区东西两侧各有一个正距平下沉支，它们共同加强了梅雨区南侧暖湿气流的汇聚输送作用。（4）通过对稳定分量的演变分析发现，“三极”系统的建立和演化与梅雨区降水强弱的阶段变化密切相关。（5）更长时间尺度（60d）环流稳定分量为持续强降水时段的“三极”关键稳定分量提供了重要的环流背景。
- 梅雨 /
- 稳定分量 /
- 空间结构 /
- 演变特征
Abstract: There are significant precipitation stages that bring changes during the rainy period known as Meiyu. It is important to study the key stable circulation components that lead to the continuous heavy rainfall of this period to enable the analysis and prediction of Meiyu precipitation. Using NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2016, the key stable components of the circulation system during the 2016 Meiyu period were extracted from the geopotential height field, wind field, and relative humidity field. The spatial structure, evolutionary characteristics, and longer-term background factors were analyzed to provide a basis for extended period forecasts of the periodic heavy rainfall in the Meiyu area. The results suggest that (1) the “tri-pole” pattern is the key system that maintained the continuous heavy rainfall in the Meiyu area in 2016. This “tri-pole” pattern in the stable components of the geopotential height field corresponds to the Ural Mountains blocking high, the Okhotsk Sea blocking high, the Southeast Asia high, and the West Pacific subtropical high. The structure of this configuration is conducive to the convergence of warm and cold air in the Meiyu area to generate persistent heavy rainfall. (2) In the middle and high latitudes, there is a relatively deep negative anomaly between two deep positive-anomaly areas. On one hand, this is conducive to the southward transport of cold air. On the other hand, the stability of the relative humidity field indicates that the water vapor transport and convergence of the northern branch of the air flow play an important role in the continuous precipitation of the Meiyu area. (3) The positive-anomaly area in the middle and low latitudes mainly occurs in the middle and high troposphere with zonal distribution features. However, there are two positive areas on both the eastern and western sides of the Meiyu area, which continue down to the lower level and may strengthen the convergence and transport of warm and humid air in the south of the Meiyu area. (4) The analysis of the evolution of the stable component revealed that the establishment and evolution of the “tri-pole” pattern led to different precipitation-stage characteristics in the Meiyu area.(5) The stable circulation components on a longer time scale (60 d) provide important background circulation for the key stable components of the “tri-pole” pattern during the period of continuous heavy rainfall.
- Meiyu /
- Stable components /
- Spatial structure /
- Evolution characteristics
注释:

1) 中国气象局预报与网络司. 2014. 关于印发《梅雨监测业务规定》的通知, 气预函（2014）28号 [R].

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图 1 梅雨监测区域划分及监测站点空间分布示意图。

Figure 1. Schematic of the divisions in the monitoring area and the spatial distribution of the monitoring stations.

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图 2 2016年5月25日至7月21日梅雨区（277站平均）逐日降水量演变图（曲线为气候平均，单位：mm）

Figure 2. Regional (277 stations in the Meiyu region) average daily precipitation from 25 May to 21 July 2016. The curve indicates climate average (units: mm)

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图 3 2016年6月18日至7月7日（研究时段，下同）梅雨区（277站平均）气温（等值线，单位：°C）、风和相对湿度（阴影区）时间—高度剖面

Figure 3. Time–height cross sections of the average air temperature (contours, units: °C),wind and relative humidity (shadings) in the Meiyu region (277-station average) from 18 Jun to 7 Jul 2016 (the research period, the same below)

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图 4 研究时段平均位势高度场、相对湿度场和流场分布：（a） 100 hPa；（b） 500 hPa；（c） 700 hPa；（d） 850 hPa。图（a，b）中蓝色等值线为位势高度，红色等值线为气候平均，单位：gpm；图（a–d）阴影区为相对湿度

Figure 4. Distribution of the average geopotential height field, relative humidity field, and stream field during the research period at (a)100 hPa, (b)500 hPa, (c)700 hPa, and (d)850 hPa. The shaded areas in (a–d) indicate relative humidity, the contours in (a, b) indicate geopotential height, the red isolines indicate climate average (units: gpm)

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图 5 研究时段位势高度场、相对湿度场和流场稳定分量分布：（a） 100 hPa；（b） 500 hPa；（c） 700 hPa；（d）850 hPa。图（a，b）等值线为位势高度（单位：gpm），图（a–d）阴影区为相对湿度

Figure 5. Distribution of the stable components of the geopotential height field, relative humidity field, and stream field during the research period at (a) 100 hPa, (b) 500 hPa, (c) 700 hPa, and (d) 850 hPa. The shaded areas in (a–d) indicate relative humidity, the contours in (a, b) indicate geopotential height (units: gpm)

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图 6 研究时段位势高度场稳定分量垂直剖面分布（单位：gpm）：（a）沿50°～70°E经度带平均；（b）沿90°～110°E经度带平均；（c）沿140°～160°E经度带平均；（d）沿45°～60°N纬度带平均；（e）沿30°～40°N纬度带平均；（f）沿20°～30°N纬度带平均

Figure 6. Vertical profile distribution of stable components of the geopotential height field during the research period (units: gpm): (a) Regional average along 50°–70°E; (b) regional average along 90°–110°E; (c) regional average along 140°–160°E; (d) regional average along 45°–60°N; (e) regional average along 30°–40°N; (f) regional average along 20°–30°N

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图 7 研究时段及前、后时段位势高度场稳定分量（单位：gpm）对流层中上层（500～200 hPa）平均分布：（a）前一时段（2016年5月29日～6月17日，下同）；（b）研究时段（2016年6月18日～7月7日）；（c）后一时段（2016年7月8日～7月27日，下同）

Figure 7. Average distribution of stable components of the geopotential height field in the middle and upper troposphere (500–200 hPa) during, before, and after the research period (units: gpm): (a) The previous period (between 29 May and 17 Jun 2016, the same below); (b) research period (between 18 Jun and 7 Jul 2016, the same below); (c) later period (between 8 Jul and 27 Jul 2016, the same below)

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图 8 研究时段及前后时段位势高度场稳定分量垂直分布（单位：gpm）：（a）（50°～70°N，50°～70°E）区域平均；（b）（50°～70°N，90°～110°E）区域平均；（c）（50°～70°N，140°～160°E）区域平均；（d）（20°～40°N，50°～70°E）区域平均；（e）（20°～40°N，90°～110°E）区域平均；（f）（20°～40°N，140°～160°E）区域平均

Figure 8. Vertical distribution of the stable components of the geopotential height field during, before, and after the research period (units: gpm): (a) Regional average in (50°–70°N, 50°–70°E); (b) regional average in (50°–70°N, 90°–110°E); (c) regional averagein (50°–70°N, 140°–160°E); (d) regional average in (20°–40°N, 50°–70°E); (e) regional average in (20°–40°N, 90°–110°E); (f) regional average in (20°–40°N, 140°–160°E)

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图 9 2016年研究时段及2009年同期位势高度场稳定分量垂直分布（单位：gpm）：（a）（50°～70°N，50°～70°E）区域平均；（b）（50°～70°N，90°～110°E）区域平均；（c）（50°～70°N，140°～160°E）区域平均；（d）（20°～40°N，50°～70°E）区域平均；（e）（20°～40°N，90°～110°E）区域平均；（f）（20°～40°N，140°～160°E）区域平均

Figure 9. Vertical distribution of stable components of the geopotential height field during the research period in 2016 and 2009 (units: gpm): (a) Regional average in (50°-70°N,50°-70°E); (b) regional average in (50°–70°N, 90°–110°E); (c) regional average in (50°–70°N, 140°–160°E); (d) regional average in (20°–40°N, 50°–70°E); (e) regional average in (20°–40°N, 90°–110°E); (f) regional average in (20°–40°N, 140°–160°E)

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图 10 2016年梅雨期60天（2016年5月29日至7月27日）平均位势高度场稳定分量对流层中上层（500～200 hPa）平均分布（单位：gpm）

Figure 10. Average distribution of stable components of the geopotential height field in the middle and upper troposphere (500–200 hPa) during the Meiyu period (60-d average between 29 May and 27 July 2016) (units: gpm)

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