利用中国区域550个站点1961～2000年日降水量资料, 考察参与政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告的7个新一代全球模式及多模式集合对现代气候情景下(20C3M)5个极端降水指数的模拟能力, 同时进行中国区域未来不同排放情形下极端降水事件变化的预估, 结果表明: 最新全球模式能较好地模拟出极端降水指数气候场的空间分布及其中国区域的线性趋势, 且模式集合模拟能力优于大部分单个模式, 但在青藏高原东侧、 高原南部存在虚假的极端降水高值区, 模拟的东部季风区的极端降水强度系统性偏低, 区域平均序列年际变率的模拟能力也较低。中国地区21世纪与降水有关的事件都有趋于极端化的趋势, 极端降水强度可能增强, 干旱也将加重, 且变化幅度与排放强度成正比。
Climatology of the observed daily precipitation extreme indices (SDII, simple daily intensity index; CDD, the maximum number of consecutive dry days; R10, number of days with precipitation greater than 10 mm; R5d, maximum 5-day precipitation total; R95t, fraction of total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile of the climatological distribution for wet day amounts) at 550 stations in China during 1961－2000 is used to evaluate the simulation ability of 7 IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models, the projected change of the precipitation extreme indices over China under IPCC SRES A2、A1B and B1 is also studied. The results show that the state-of-the-art IPCC AR4 models can simulate the spatial distributions and the linear trends of precipitation extremes well. The multi-model ensemble (MME) shows the best skill, but both the MME and single model fail to simulate the interannual variability and have large biases, such as there are excessive extreme precipitation over the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau while in the monsoon regions the modeled intensity of precipitation extremes is lower than the observation. In the 21st century the precipitation will become more “extreme”， there would be an overall increasing trend in extreme precipitation events over most of China under a warming environment, and the change scope is scaled to the emissions scenarios.