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台风路径数值预报实时订正技术及其集成应用

危国飞 刘会军 潘宁 冷典颂 吴启树

危国飞, 刘会军, 潘宁, 等. 2021. 台风路径数值预报实时订正技术及其集成应用[J]. 大气科学, 45(1): 195−204 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.19237
引用本文: 危国飞, 刘会军, 潘宁, 等. 2021. 台风路径数值预报实时订正技术及其集成应用[J]. 大气科学, 45(1): 195−204 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.19237
WEI Guofei, LIU Huijun, PAN Ning, et al. 2021. Real-Time Correction Method for Numerically Modeled Typhoon Tracks and Its Integrated Application [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(1): 195−204 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.19237
Citation: WEI Guofei, LIU Huijun, PAN Ning, et al. 2021. Real-Time Correction Method for Numerically Modeled Typhoon Tracks and Its Integrated Application [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(1): 195−204 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.19237

台风路径数值预报实时订正技术及其集成应用

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.19237
基金项目: 中国气象局预报员专项CMAYBY2017-035,气象预报业务关键技术发展专项子项目YBGJXM(2018)1B-05,福建省自然科学基金社会发展引导性(重点)项目(2017Y-008)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    危国飞,男,1987年出生,硕士研究生、工程师,主要从事天气预报技术方法研究。E-mail: weiguofei@zju.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    刘会军,E-mail: 21006262@zju.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P456

Real-Time Correction Method for Numerically Modeled Typhoon Tracks and Its Integrated Application

Funds: China Meteorological Administration Forecaster Special Project (Grant CMAYBY2017-035), Meteorological Forecasting Operation Key Technology Development Program (Grant YBGJXM(2018)1B-05), Social Development Guiding (Key) Project of Fujian Natural Science Foundation (Grant 2017Y-008)
  • 摘要: 以台风路径数值预报的短时效预报偏差和目标时效(指所需订正的时效)的纬度预报为预报因子,采用多元线性回归方法建立了台风路径预报的偏差预估方程,继而对台风路径预报进行实时订正。本文以12 h为短时效,通过对欧洲中期天气预报中心确定性预报模式(ECMWF-IFS)和集合预报模式(ECMWF-EPS)的台风路径预报的应用,得到以下结论:2018年试报结果表明,24 h、36 h、48 h、60 h、72 h、84 h订正后的ECMWF-IFS台风路径预报的平均距离误差分别比订正前减小了7.3 km、9.3 km、8.9 km、6.5 km、6.9 km、2.6 km,总体来说较强台风(指12 h的台风强度实况≥32.7 m s−1)路径预报的订正效果更好。尝试了先对ECMWF-EPS各成员的台风路径预报进行订正,再进行集成预报,并对比了以下5种方式得到的台风路径预报:“订正后的确定性预报”、“所有集合预报成员集合平均”、“优选集合预报成员集合平均”、“所有集合预报成员先订正再集合平均”和“优选集合预报成员先订正再集合平均”,2018年试报结果表明,对于平均距离误差,24 h和36 h“优选集合预报成员先订正再集合平均”最小,48 h和60 h“所有集合预报成员先订正再集合平均”最小,72 h和84 h“优选集合预报成员集合平均”最小,如果在业务中有针对性地进行应用,有望获得一个在各预报时效表现都较优异的台风路径客观综合预报结果。24 h、36 h、48 h、60 h“优选集合预报成员先订正再集合平均”的平均距离误差分别比“所有集合预报成员集合平均”减小了13.3 km、11.7 km、10.0 km、7.6 km,比中央气象台官方预报(对应的时效为12 h、24 h、36 h、48 h)减小了0.7 km、2.0 km、3.9 km、2.4 km。
  • 图  1  2013~2017年ECMWF-IFS台风路径预报12 h和24 h的纬向(左)预报偏差、经向(右)预报偏差的散点图。样本数为1199,斜线为线性趋势线

    Figure  1.  Scatter diagrams of zonal forecast bias (left) and meridional forecast bias (right) of typhoon tracks at 12 h and 24 h. Typhoon tracks are forecasted by ECMWF-IFS from 2013 to 2017. The number of samples is 1199. The diagonal line denotes the linear trend

    图  2  2013~2017年ECMWF-IFS台风路径预报24 h的纬度预报与24 h的纬向预报偏差的散点图。样本数为1199,斜线为线性趋势线

    Figure  2.  Scatter diagram of latitude forecast and zonal forecast bias of typhoon tracks at 24 h. Typhoon tracks are forecasted by ECMWF-IFS from 2013 to 2017. The number of samples is 1199. The diagonal line denotes the linear trend

    图  3  2016~2017年订正后的ECMWF-IFS台风路径预报的订正技巧随滑动训练期样本数N的变化

    Figure  3.  Skill score of corrected typhoon tracks forecasted by ECMWF-IFS from 2016 to 2017, changing with number of samples N in a moving training period

    表  1  2013~2017年ECMWF-IFS台风路径预报12 h的纬向预报偏差与随后较长时效的纬向预报偏差的相关系数(相关系数1)、12 h的经向预报偏差与随后较长时效的经向预报偏差的相关系数(相关系数2)、某时效的纬度预报与该时效的纬向预报偏差的相关系数(相关系数3)。表中除了括号中的相关系数外,其他全都通过95%信度水平的显著性检验

    Table  1.   Correlation coefficients between zonal forecast bias of typhoon tracks at 12 h and following lead times (corresponding to the second column in the table), between meridional forecast bias of typhoon tracks at 12 h and following lead times (corresponding to the third column in the table), and between latitude forecast of typhoon tracks at some lead time and zonal forecast bias of typhoon tracks at that lead time (corresponding to the fourth column in the table). The typhoon tracks are forecasted by ECMWF-IFS (Integrated Forecast System, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) from 2013 to 2017. All correlation coefficients in the table, except the one in brackets, are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level

    预报时效/h相关系数1相关系数2相关系数3样本数
    240.540.46−0.131199
    360.410.31−0.151079
    480.300.25−0.14954
    600.170.20−0.09838
    720.140.15−0.08738
    840.080.11(−0.06)626
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2016~2017年ECMWF-IFS台风路径预报订正前后的平均距离误差(单位:km)。括号内数字表示样本数

    Table  2.   Mean track errors of uncorrected and corrected typhoon tracks forecasted by ECMWF-IFS from 2016 to 2017. The numbers in brackets indicate the number of samples

    台风路径预报不同预报时效的平均距离误差/km
    24 h (402)36 h (358)48 h (307)60 h (262)72 h (228)84 h (187)
    订正前62.279.3105.8145.8193.2236.8
    只订正纬向预报偏差57.875.8103.8145.0192.7235.6
    只订正经向预报偏差60.278.9105.3144.6192.2236.5
    纬向和经向预报偏差都订正55.675.0103.0143.8191.7235.2
    注:加粗的数字为每个预报时效的最小值。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2018年ECMWF-IFS台风路径预报订正前后的平均距离误差(单位:km)。括号内数字表示样本数

    Table  3.   Mean track errors of uncorrected and corrected typhoon tracks forecasted by ECMWF-IFS in 2018. The numbers in brackets indicate the number of samples

    台风路径预报不同预报时效的平均距离误差/km
    24 h (268)36 h (245)48 h (220)60 h (196)72 h (171)84 h (150)
    订正前63.585.4109.2131.9162.1195.6
    预估偏差订正法56.276.1100.3125.4155.2193.0
    平移订正法60.481.6104.7130.6162.0198.5
    注:加粗的数字为每个预报时效的最小值。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  2018年台风路径客观预报和中央气象台官方预报的平均距离误差(单位:km)。括号内数字表示样本数

    Table  4.   Mean track errors of objective forecasts and the Central Meteorological Office official forecast in 2018. The numbers in brackets indicate the number of samples

    台风路径预报不同预报时效的平均距离误差/km
    24 h (263)36 h (240)48 h (213)60 h (188)72 h (163)84 h (142)
    订正后的确定性预报56.675.899.8124.2151.1187.2
    所有集合预报成员集合平均63.083.6107.9131.6155.7186.8
    优选集合预报成员集合平均52.773.3101.5124.4150.8183.7
    所有集合预报成员先订正再集合平均50.972.897.0123.5151.3188.2
    优选集合预报成员先订正再集合平均49.771.997.9124.0151.7188.5
    中央气象台官方预报50.473.9101.8126.4150.3182.9
    注:加粗的数字为每个预报时效客观预报的最小值。预报时效是相对于模式起报时间来说的,基于数值模式预报的可应用性,采用主观预报与预报时效滞后12 h的数值模式预报对比,即24 h对应中央气象台官方预报是12 h,36 h对应中央气象台官方预报是24 h,以此类推。
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-10-22
  • 录用日期:  2020-10-29
  • 网络出版日期:  2020-09-02

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