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云海-2掩星探测资料在全球数值天气预报模式中的同化效果评估

王业桂 张斌 李娟 蔡其发 兰伟仁 郭贤鹏 王广杰

王业桂, 张斌, 李娟, 等. 2021. 云海-2掩星探测资料在全球数值天气预报模式中的同化效果评估[J]. 大气科学, 45(4): 901−914 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.20187
引用本文: 王业桂, 张斌, 李娟, 等. 2021. 云海-2掩星探测资料在全球数值天气预报模式中的同化效果评估[J]. 大气科学, 45(4): 901−914 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.20187
WANG Yegui, ZHANG Bin, LI Juan, et al. 2021. Evaluation of Assimilation Effect of Yunhai-2 Occultation Data in Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(4): 901−914 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.20187
Citation: WANG Yegui, ZHANG Bin, LI Juan, et al. 2021. Evaluation of Assimilation Effect of Yunhai-2 Occultation Data in Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(4): 901−914 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.20187

云海-2掩星探测资料在全球数值天气预报模式中的同化效果评估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.20187
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41375105
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王业桂,男,1963年出生,高级工程师,主要从事数值预报研究。E-mail: wyegui@sohu.com

    通讯作者:

    张斌,E-mail: zhangbinzhb1985@sohu.com

  • 中图分类号: P456

Evaluation of Assimilation Effect of Yunhai-2 Occultation Data in Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41375105)
  • 摘要: 本文基于T799L91全球数值天气预报模式及其四维变分同化系统,构建了云海-2掩星探测资料的同化流程,并以2019年7月开展了为期一个月的云海-2掩星探测资料同化预报试验。对东亚区域、北半球和南半球的同化预报结果评估表明:在全球数值天气预报模式中,同化云海-2掩星探测资料能够有效提高预报场的准确性,提高的幅度随着预报时效和预报日数的增加逐渐增大;在更长时效的72 h、120 h、168 h预报中,云海-2掩星探测资料与GPS(Global Positioning System)掩星探测资料的同化效果在中前期相当,在中后期,同化云海-2掩星探测资料逐渐优于GPS掩星探测资料;随着预报日数的增加,联合同化云海-2掩星探测资料和GPS掩星探测资料的优势逐步显现。
  • 图  1  2019年7月表1中各试验在东亚区域的500 hPa位势高度场距平相关系数。0.6为可用预报参考值,图a1–a4为24 h、72 h、120 h和168 h预报的逐日统计结果,图b1–b4为24 h、72 h、120 h和168 h预报的每隔10 d的平均统计结果

    Figure  1.  The anomaly correlation coefficients of 500-hPa geopotential height in East Asia for each experiment in Table 1 in July 2019. 0.6 is the reference value of available forecast; Figs. a1–a4 represent the statistical results of 24-h, 72-h, 120-h, and 168-h forecasts, respectively; Figs. b1–b4 represent the average statistical results every 10 days for 24-h, 72-h, 120-h, and 168-h forecasts, respectively. T799L91, T799L91-GPS, T799L91-GPS+YH2, T799L91+YH2 represent the experiment under normal operational circumstance, the experiment without assimilating GPS (Global Positioning System) occultation data comparing with experiment T799L91, the experiment with assimilating Yunhai-2 occultation data comparing with experiment T799L91-GPS, the experiment with assimilating Yunhai-2 occultation data comparing with experiment T799L91, respectively

    图  2  图1,但为各试验在北半球500 hPa位势高度场的距平相关系数

    Figure  2.  As in Fig. 1, but for the anomaly correlation coefficients of 500-hPa geopotential height in Northern Hemisphere for each experiment in Table 1

    图  3  图1,但为各试验在南半球500 hPa位势高度场的距平相关系数

    Figure  3.  As in Fig. 1, but for the anomaly correlation coefficients of 500-hPa geopotential height in Southern Hemisphere for each experiment in Table 1

    图  4  图1,但为各试验在东亚区域的850 hPa水平风速的均方根误差

    Figure  4.  As in Fig. 1, but for the RMSE (root mean square errors) of 850-hPa horizontal wind in East Asia for each experiment in Table 1

    图  5  图1,但为各试验在北半球的850 hPa水平风速的均方根误差

    Figure  5.  As in Fig. 1, but for the RMSE of 850-hPa horizontal wind in Northern Hemisphere for each experiment in Table 1

    图  6  图1,但为各试验在南半球的850 hPa水平风速的均方根误差

    Figure  6.  As in Fig. 1, but for the RMSE of 850-hPa horizontal wind in Southern Hemisphere for each experiment in Table 1

    图  7  图1,但为各试验在东亚区域的850 hPa温度的均方根误差

    Figure  7.  As in Fig. 1, but for the RMSE of 850-hPa temperature field in East Asia for each experiment in Table 1

    图  8  图1,但为各试验在北半球的850 hPa温度的均方根误差

    Figure  8.  As in Fig. 1, but for the RMSE of 850-hPa temperature field in Northern Hemisphere for each experiment in Table 1

    图  9  图1,但为各试验在南半球的850 hPa温度的均方根误差

    Figure  9.  As in Fig. 1, but for the RMSE of 850-hPa temperature field in Southern Hemisphere for each experiment in Table 1

    表  1  T799L91谱模式同化预报试验设置

    Table  1.   The design of assimilation and forecasting experiment with spectral model T799L91

    序号试验名称试验方案
    1T799L91业务流程,同化的掩星探测资料为GPS掩星探测资料,进行10 d预报
    2T799L91-GPS相对于试验1,去除GPS资料的同化
    3T799L91-GPS+YH2相对于试验2,加入云海-2掩星探测资料同化
    4T799L91+YH2相对于试验1,加入云海-2掩星探测资料同化
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-08-02
  • 录用日期:  2021-01-12
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-02-26
  • 刊出日期:  2021-07-15

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