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2019年广东前汛期连续暴雨与大气季节内振荡的联系

纪忠萍 源艳芬 徐艳虹 韩浦城 方一川 谢炯光

纪忠萍, 源艳芬, 徐艳虹, 等. 2021. 2019年广东前汛期连续暴雨与大气季节内振荡的联系[J]. 大气科学, 44(3): 1−17 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20136
引用本文: 纪忠萍, 源艳芬, 徐艳虹, 等. 2021. 2019年广东前汛期连续暴雨与大气季节内振荡的联系[J]. 大气科学, 44(3): 1−17 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20136
JI Zhongping, YUAN Yanfen, XU Yanhong, et al. 2021. The Relationship between Continuous Rainstorms and Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation during the First Rainy Season in Guangdong in 2019 [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 44(3): 1−17 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20136
Citation: JI Zhongping, YUAN Yanfen, XU Yanhong, et al. 2021. The Relationship between Continuous Rainstorms and Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation during the First Rainy Season in Guangdong in 2019 [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 44(3): 1−17 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20136

2019年广东前汛期连续暴雨与大气季节内振荡的联系

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20136
基金项目: 国家重点研究发展计划项目2018YFC1505806,国家自然科学基金项目41675096,气象预报业务关键技术发展专项子项目YBGJXM(2020)4A-05
详细信息
    作者简介:

    纪忠萍,女,1967年出生,正研级高工,主要从事中长期天气预报与低频振荡研究。E-mail: jzp897@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P458

The Relationship between Continuous Rainstorms and Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation during the First Rainy Season in Guangdong in 2019

Funds: National Key R&D Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1505806), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41675096), Meteorological Forecasting Operation Key Technology Development Program (Grant YBGJXM(2020)4A-05)
  • 摘要: 为了做好连续回流暴雨的中期与延伸期预报,采用小波分析、Lanczos时间滤波器等方法研究了2019年广东前汛期降水与大气季节内振荡的关系,分析了4~5月发生在西南部的两次连续回流暴雨的平均环流场及其低频传播特征的差异,并与6月广东北部锋面型连续暴雨进行对比分析。结果表明,4~5月两次以阳江为中心的西南部连续暴雨及前汛期降水均具有准23 d振荡,它们分别为有、无明显冷空气影响的连续回流暴雨且对应的大气环流场及低频传播特征具有明显的不同:4月12~14日连续回流暴雨期间,500 hPa中高纬度具有稳定的“西阻”和“东阻”,使冷空气不断地从东海入海高压的南部东移南下,925 hPa形成以阳江为中心相对干冷的强东南风与来自南海中南部从中南半岛转向的暖湿偏南风的辐合渐近线;而5月23~26日连续回流暴雨期间,500 hPa华东—东海—黄海为稳定高压坝,广东长时间处于高原槽前西南气流中,地面上处于东海出海变性高压脊西南部及北部湾西南低槽前,925 hPa形成以阳江为中心来自孟加拉湾的强偏南风与珠江口以东东南风的辐合渐近线。来自我国中部(东海以东)低频反气旋南侧(西南侧)逐渐加强南传的低频东北风(东南风)与从140°E附近的西太平洋西传(孟加拉湾东传)到广东并加强的低频北风(南风)汇合在广东西南部,并有(无)与从南海中北部北传的低频气旋北侧低频东风相遇,导致4月12~14日(5月23~26日)有(无)明显冷空气影响的连续回流暴雨发生。而6月广东北部为东亚深槽引导的冷空气与来自孟加拉强盛西南风交汇所产生的锋面型连续暴雨,来自我国中部、孟加拉湾分别逐渐加强向南、向东传播到达广东的低频西南风,与来自中纬度低频反气旋外围的干冷东北风交汇在江南或南海北部,导致广东北部6月9~13日连续暴雨的发生。
  • 图  1  2019年4~6月广东86站(a)平均的逐日降水量(左侧纵坐标,柱状,单位:mm)、7~30 d滤波降水演变(右侧纵坐标,蓝色点虚线,单位:mm),平均逐日降水量的(b)墨西哥帽小波变换系数(实、虚线表示正、负值)、(c)小波全谱(实线)。图1a中上下两条水平虚线表示7~30 d滤波降水的一倍标准差;图1b中浅色和深色阴影区表示通过0.1和0.05显著性水平的区域,两侧的交叉区域表示边界效应的影响域;图1c中虚线为0.1显著性水平线。显著性检验采用了Monte-Carlo方法

    Figure  1.  (a) The daily precipitation (left y-axis, bars, units: mm) and 7–30-d filtered precipitation (right y-axis, blue dotted-dashed line, units: mm) averaged at 86 stations in Guangdong Province from April to June 2019. (b) Mexican hat wavelet transform coefficient [solid (dashed) line represent positive (negative) value] and (c) global wavelet power spectrum (solid line) for daily mean precipitation. In Fig. a, the upper and lower horizontal dashed lines indicate one standard deviation of 7–30 d filtered precipitation. In Fig. b, the light (dark) shadings represent the regions with statistical significance at 0.1 (0.05) levels, based on the Monte-Carlo method; the cross-hatched regions at both ends indicate the areas with boundary effects. In Fig. c, the dashed line represents statistical significance at the 0.1 level, based on the Monte-Carlo method

    图  2  2019年4~6月广东3次连续暴雨过程累计雨量(单位:mm):(a)4月12~15日;(b)5月23~26日;(c)6月9~13日

    Figure  2.  The cumulative precipitation (units: mm) of three continuous rainstormsin Guangdong in April–June 2019: (a) 12–15 April; (b) 23–26 May; (c) 9–13 June

    图  3  2019年4~6月阳江逐日平均气压(黑色线,单位:hPa)、温度(红色线,单位:℃)、绝度湿度(蓝色线,单位:g kg−1)的变化

    Figure  3.  The evolutions of the daily pressure (black line, units: hPa), temperature (red line, units: ℃), and absolute humidity (blue line, units: g kg−1) at Yangjiang from April to June 2019

    图  4  2019年广东西南部4月12~14日(左列)、5月23~26日(右列)两次连续回流暴雨过程平均的(a、e)500 hPa高度场(黑色粗实线,单位:gpm)及其距平场(黑色细线,阴影区为负距平,单位:gpm),(b、f)850 hPa风场(单位:m s−1),(c、g)925 hPa风场(箭头,单位:m s−1)、500 hPa垂直速度(实线表示正值,虚线和阴影表示负值,单位:hPa s−1),(d、h)海平面气压场(单位:hPa)

    Figure  4.  (a, e) The 500-hPa geopotential height (bold solid lines, units: gpm) and their anomalies (black thin lines, shadings represent negative anomalies, units: gpm), (b, f) 850-hPa wind (units: m s−1), (c, g) 925-hPa wind (arrows, units: m s−1) and 500-hPa vertical velocity (solid lines indicate positive values, dashed lines and shadings indicate negative values, units: hPa s−1), (d, h) sea level pressure (units: hPa) averaged in the two continuous backflow rainstorms in southwestern Guangdong on (a–d) 12–14 April 2019, (e–h) 23–26 May 2019

    图  5  图4ad,但为2019年6月9~13日连续暴雨过程

    Figure  5.  As in Fig. 4ad, but for continuous rainstorm on 9–13 June 2019

    图  6  2019年4~6月广东3次连续暴雨过程的925 hPa水汽通量(箭头,单位:g s−1 hPa−1 cm−1)和水汽通量散度(实线表示正值,虚线和阴影表示负值,单位:10−6 g s−1 hPa−1 cm−2):(a)4月12~14日;(b)5月23~26日;(c)6月9~13日

    Figure  6.  925-hPa water vapor fluxes (arrows, units: g s−1 hPa−1 cm−1) and water vapor fluxes divergences (solid lines indicate positive values, dashed lines and shadings indicate negative values, units: 10−6 g s−1 hPa−1 cm−2) in the three continuous rainstorms in Guangdong in April–June 2019: (a) 12–14 April; (b) 23–26 May; (c) 9–13 June

    图  7  2019年4~6月110°~115°E平均的925 hPa低频(7~30 d)(a)纬向风(单位:m s−1)、(b)经向风(单位:m s−1)、(c)OLR(单位:W m−2)的纬度—时间剖面。阴影表示正值,红色箭头表示低频波的传播方向,两条红色线之间的区域表示广东所在的纬度范围

    Figure  7.  Latitude–time cross sections of the low-frequency (7–30 d) (a) zonal wind (units: m s−1), (b) meridional wind (units: m s−1), and (c) OLR (outgoing longwave radiation, units: W m−2) at 925 hPa averaged over 110°–115°E from April to June 2019. Shadings represent positive values, the red arrows mean propagating direction of low–frequency wave, areas in the two red horizontal lines represent the latitude range where Guangdong Province

    图  8  2019年4~6月20°~25°N平均的925 hPa低频(7~30 d)(a)纬向风(单位:m s−1)、(b)经向风(单位:m s−1)、(c)OLR(单位:W m−2)的经度—时间剖面。阴影表示正值,红色箭头表示低频波的传播方向,两条红色线之间的区域表示广东所在的经度范围

    Figure  8.  Longitude–time cross sections of the low-frequency (7–30 d) (a) zonal wind (units: m s−1), (b) meridional wind (units: m s−1), and (c) OLR (units: W m−2) at 925 hPa averaged over 20°–25°N from April to June 2019. Shadings represent positive values, the red arrows mean propagating direction of low–frequency wave, areas in the two red horizontal lines represent the latitude range where Guangdong Province

    图  9  2019年4月(a)7日、(b)10日、(c)12日、(d)14日的925 hPa低频水平风场(单位:m s−1

    Figure  9.  Low frequency horizontal wind (units: m s−1) at 925 hPa on (a) 7 April, (b) 10 April, (c) 12 April, and (d) 14 April 2019

    图  10  2019年5月(a)21日、(b)23日、(c)25日、(d)5月26日的925 hPa低频水平风场(单位:m s−1

    Figure  10.  Low frequency horizontal wind (units: m s−1) at 925 hPa on (a) 21 May, (b) 23 May, (c) 25 May, and (d) 26 May 2019

    图  11  2019年6月(a)1日、(b)4日、(c)7日、(d)9日、(e)11日、(f)13日的925 hPa低频水平风场(单位:m s−1

    Figure  11.  Low frequency horizontal wind (units: m s−1) at 925 hPa on (a) 1 June, (b) 4 June, (c) 7 June, (d) 9 June, (e) 11 June, and (f) 13 June 2019

    表  1  冷空气强度级别的确定

    Table  1.   Definition of cold air intensity levels

    冷空气级别 变量的24 h
    变化之下界
    变量的48 h
    变化之下界
    变量的72 h
    变化之下界
    特强 ≥8.0 ≥10.0 ≥12.0
    ≥6.0 ≥8.0 ≥10.0
    中等 ≥4.0 ≥6.0 ≥8.0
    ≥2.0 ≥4.0 ≥6.0
    微弱 <2.0(且>0) <4.0(且>0) <6.0(且>0)
    注:变量代表气压(单位:hPa)、温度(单位:℃)、绝对湿度(单位:g kg−1)中的任一要素。
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-03-20
  • 录用日期:  2021-02-01
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-01-23

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