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1961~2018年西北地区降水的变化特征

王澄海 张晟宁 李课臣 张飞民 杨凯

王澄海, 张晟宁, 李课臣, 等. 2021. 1961~2018年西北地区降水的变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 45(4): 713−724 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20216
引用本文: 王澄海, 张晟宁, 李课臣, 等. 2021. 1961~2018年西北地区降水的变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 45(4): 713−724 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20216
WANG Chenghai, ZHANG Shengning, LI Kechen, et al. 2021. Change Characteristics of Precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2018 [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(4): 713−724 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20216
Citation: WANG Chenghai, ZHANG Shengning, LI Kechen, et al. 2021. Change Characteristics of Precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2018 [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(4): 713−724 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20216

1961~2018年西北地区降水的变化特征

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2101.20216
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目91837205、41975111,国家重点研发计划项目2020YFA0608404,甘肃省重大研究计划项目20ZD7FA005
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王澄海,男,1961年出生,博士、教授,主要从事气候模拟和寒旱区陆面过程。E-mail: wch@lzu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467

Change Characteristics of Precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2018

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 91837205, 41975111), National Key R&D Program of China (Grant 2020YFA0608404), Key Research Program of Gansu Province (Grant 20ZD7FA005)
  • 摘要: 邻接青藏高原地区的中国西北地区是最大的欧亚干旱区,其降水变化对全球变化的响应和对干旱环境及其青藏高原气候变化都具有特殊的指示意义。基于1961~2018年中国西北地区144个站的逐日降水、逐月气温观测资料,分析了西北地区的降水变化特征及趋势。结果表明:(1)近60年以来,西北地区92%站点的年降水量呈现增加的趋势,只有甘肃东南部不到10%的站点呈下降趋势;(2)季节尺度上,春、夏、秋季中超过75%站点的降水呈现增加的趋势,但最显著的是,几乎所有站点在冬季的降水为增加趋势,秋、冬季降水的增加相对较少,反映了冬季风对西北地区降水影响的特点;(3)进入21世纪以来,西北地区夏季和年降水量仍然维持准3 a周期特征,春、秋季的周期具有阶段性、冬季降水量具有较稳定的约3 a周期,因此,自然周期变化对降水增加的贡献并不大。西北地区降水量在过去60年来确实呈现出增加趋势,尤其21世纪以来降水量持续增加,但增加的量是有限的,不足以改变其干旱半干旱的气候特征。
  • 图  1  1961~2017年西北地区(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季、(e)年降水量[绿(红)色箭头表示降水趋势增加(减少)]、气温(圆圈,单位:°C a−1)的变化趋势和降水量标准差(等值线,单位:mm)。N表示站点数,黑色加号表示降水量趋势通过95%信度水平的显著性检验,所有站点的气温变化趋势均通过95%信度水平的显著性检验。图e中虚线框表示标准差较大的两个区域A、B

    Figure  1.  The change trends of (a) spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter, (e) annual precipitation [the green (red) triangles represent the increasing (decreasing)] and temperature (circles, units: °C a−1), and precipitation standard deviation (contour lines, units: mm) in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017. N represent station numbers, the black plus signs indicate that the precipitation change trends pass the test at 95% confidence level, temperature change trends at all stations pass 95% confidence level. In Fig. e, the dashed boxes represent areas A and B with large standard deviations

    图  2  1961~2018年区域(a)A、(b)B月降水量(黑色柱状,单位:mm)、月降水量标准差(灰色柱状,单位:mm)、月平均气温(折线,单位:°C)

    Figure  2.  Monthly precipitation (black bars, units: mm), standard deviation (gray bars, units: mm) of monthly precipitation, and monthly mean temperature (fold lines, units: °C) averaged in regions (a) A and (b) B from 1961 to 2018

    图  3  1961~2017年西北地区(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季、(e)年降水量第一特征向量场(LV1),右上角数值表示LV1的方差贡献率

    Figure  3.  The first eigenvector fields (LV1) of (a) spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter, (e) annual precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017, numbers at top right corner indicate the variance contribution rate of LV1

    图  4  1961~2017年西北地区(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季、(e)年降水量第二特征向量场(LV2),右上角数值表示LV2的方差贡献率

    Figure  4.  The second eigenvector fields (LV2) of (a) spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter, (e) annual precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017, numbers at top right corner indicate the variance contribution rate of LV2

    图  5  1961~2017年西北地区(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季、(e)年降水量第一特征向量场的时间系数(PC1),红(蓝)色柱状代表正(负)值,虚线代表9年滑动平均,右下角数值表示LV1的方差贡献率

    Figure  5.  The time coefficients (PC1) of the first eigenvector fields of (a) spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter, (e) annual precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017. The red (blue) bars represent the positive (negative) values of the time coefficient, the dashed lines represent the 9-year moving average, numbers at bottom right corner indicate the variance contribution rate of LV1

    图  6  1961~2017年西北地区(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季、(e)年降水量第二特征向量场的时间系数(PC2),红(蓝)色代表正(负)值,虚线代表9年滑动平均,右下角数值表示LV2的方差贡献率

    Figure  6.  The time coefficients (PC2) of the second eigenvector fields of (a) spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter, (e) annual precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017. The red (blue) bars represents the positive (negative) values of the time coefficient, the dashed lines represent the 9-year moving average, numbers at bottom right corner indicate the variance contribution rate of LV2

    图  7  1961~2018年西北地区(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季降水量变化(柱状)与趋势(实线),季节平均最高(Tmax)、最低气温(Tmin),季节平均最高与最低气温差值的趋势(虚线),(e)年降水量

    Figure  7.  (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter precipitation (bars) and trend (solid line), the highest (Tmax) and lowest (Tmin) average seasonal temperatures, the trend of the average seasonal difference between the highest and lowest temperatures (dashed lines), (e) annual precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2018

    图  8  1961~2017年西北地区(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季、(e)年降水量的小波系数。实(虚)线代表正(负)值,阴影区域表示周期通过90%信度水平的显著性检验

    Figure  8.  Wavelet coefficients of (a) spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter, (e) annual precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017. The solid (dashed) lines represent positive (negative) values, the shaded areas represent periods pass the test at 90% confidence level

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  • 收稿日期:  2020-10-21
  • 录用日期:  2021-01-25
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-01-29
  • 刊出日期:  2021-07-15

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