北京两次特大暴雨过程观测对比

陆婷婷; 崔晓鹏

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2104.21007

北京两次特大暴雨过程观测对比

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2104.21007

陆婷婷^{1, 4, 5,},
崔晓鹏^{1, 2, 3, 4, ,}

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴重点实验室，北京100029
2.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京210044
3.
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所，沈阳110166
4.
中国科学院大学，北京100049
5.
宁波市气象台，宁波315012

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目42075009，中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所基本科研业务费重点项目2020SYIAEZD4

详细信息

作者简介:
陆婷婷，女，1993年出生，博士研究生，主要从事暴雨相关研究。E-mail: lutingting@mail.iap.ac.cn

通讯作者:
崔晓鹏，E-mail: xpcui@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P445
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-01-11
- 录用日期: 2021-06-01
- 网络出版日期: 2021-06-02
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-18

Observational Comparison of Two Torrential Rainfall Events in Beijing

Tingting LU^{1, 4, 5
,},
Xiaopeng CUI^{1, 2, 3, 4
, ,}

1.
Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
The Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166
4.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
5.
Ningbo Meteorological Observatory, Ningbo 315012

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42075009); The Key Project of Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration (Grant 2020SYIAEZD4)

摘要

摘要: 本文针对2012年（“7·21”）和2016年（“7·20”）北京两次特大暴雨过程，利用多源观测和再分析数据，结合多种分析方法，从多个角度，较为系统地对比揭示了两次特大暴雨过程的差异，结果指出：两次过程降水总量相近，但降水历时和小时雨强不同，“7·21”历时更短、雨势更强；两次过程主导天气系统和演变、对流系统演变以及局地探空条件明显不同，“7·21”主降水时段对流有效位能显著，暖区对流性强降水主导，而“7·20”主降水时段对流有效位能小，以低涡系统性降水为主；两次过程小时雨强和短历时降水事件统计差异显著，“7·20”中等强度小时雨量站点数占比显著，而“7·21”短时强降水站点数占比明显，两次过程短历时降水事件累积雨量、持续时间、5分钟和1小时最大雨量差异明显，“7·21”短历时强降水事件占比达一半以上（小时雨量50 mm以上的短历时极强降水事件占比明显），最大5分钟和1小时降水量分别高达20.4 mm和103.6 mm，极端性显著，而“7·20”短历时中等强度降水事件占比最大，最大5分钟和1小时降水量仅为10.7和59.3 mm，“7·21”降水极端性更强、致灾性更大；两次过程水汽来源和源区定量贡献差异明显，来自中国中东部及沿海地区的水汽贡献在两次过程中均最大，但“7·21”过程上述水汽源区的贡献最突出，而“7·20”过程中，印度半岛—孟加拉湾—中南半岛、中国南海和西北太平洋及日本海等区域的贡献也较为明显。上述结论有助于深入理解和认识两次特大暴雨过程致灾程度不同的原因。
- 特大暴雨 /
- 观测对比 /
- 短历时降水事件 /
- 水汽源区定量贡献 /
- 北京
Abstract: In this paper, the two torrential rain processes in Beijing on July 21, 2012 (hereinafter referred to as “7.21”) and July 20, 2016 (hereinafter referred to as “7.20”) are analyzed to compare and reveal their differences from multiple perspectives using multisource observation and reanalysis data combined with various analysis methods. The results show that the total amount of precipitation for the two processes is similar, but the precipitation duration and hourly rainfall intensity are different, indicating that the duration of “7.21” is shorter and the rainfall intensity is stronger, which corresponds to the dominant weather system and evolution, convective system evolution and local sounding conditions of the two processes. The convective effective potential energy is significant in “7.21” main precipitation period resulting in the dominant convective heavy precipitation in a warm area, whereas the convective effective potential energy is small in “ 7.20” main precipitation period and is dominated by low vortex systematic precipitation. Therefore, significant differences are observed in the statistics of hourly rainfall intensity and short-duration rainfall events between the two processes. The proportion of medium intensity hourly rainfall stations of “7.20” is significant, whereas the proportion of short-duration heavy rainfall stations “7.21” is obvious. The differences in accumulated rainfall, duration, 5 min, and 1 h maximum rainfall between the two short-duration precipitation events are significant. The “7.21” short-duration heavy rainfall events (the short-duration extremely heavy rainfall events with an hourly rainfall of more than 50 mm accounted for a significant proportion) exceeded half, as well as the maximum 5 min and 1 h precipitation were 20.4 and 103.6 mm, respectively. While the short-duration medium intensity precipitation events of “7.20” accounted for the largest proportion, the maximum 5 min and 1 h precipitation of only 10.7 and 59.3 mm. Compared with “7.20”, “7.21” is more disastrous. The contribution of water vapor from central and eastern China as well as coastal areas is the largest in both processes, with “7.21” being more pronounced. However, the contributions of the Indian Peninsula–Bay of Bengal–Central South Peninsula, South China Sea, Northwest Pacific, and the Sea of Japan are also obvious in the “7.20”. The above conclusions contribute to understanding the reasons for the different disasters of the two torrential rain processes.
- Torrential rainfall /
- Observational comparison /
- Short-duration rainfall events /
- Quantitative contribution of moisture sources /
- Beijing

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图 1 （a）2012年和（b）2016年北京区域自动站站点（实心点）分布

Figure 1. Distribution of the automatic stations (solid dot) of Beijing in (a) 2012, (b) 2016

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图 2 累积降水量（彩色阴影，单位：mm）分布：（a）2012年7月21日06时至22日04时；（b）2012年7月21日06至20时；（c）2012年7月21日20时至22日04时；（d）2016年7月19日01时至21日08时；（e）2016年7月19日01时至20日01时；（f）2016年7月20日01时至21日08时。灰色线为200 m地形等高线；图（a）和（d）中黑色圆点分别代表两次过程中过程累积雨量最大站点（龙泉站和东山村站）

Figure 2. Distribution of the cumulated precipitation (shaded, units: mm): (a) from 0600 BST 21 to 0400 BST 22 July 2012; (b) from 0600 BST to 2000 BST 21 July 2012; (c) from 2000 BST 21 to 0400 BST 22 July 2012; (d) from 0100 BST 19 to 0800 BST 21 July 2016; (e) from 0100 BST 19 to 0100 BST 20 July 2016; (f) from 0100 BST 20 to 0800 BST 21 July 2016. Thick gray line denotes the 200-m terrain elevation. Black dots represent the stations of (a) Longquan station, (b) Dongshancun station with the largest accumulated precipitation

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图 3 （a）“7·21”（2012年7月21日降水过程）和（b）“7·20”（2016年7月20日降水过程）暴雨过程全市平均小时降水量（单位：mm）演变；（c）龙泉站和（d）东山村站逐小时雨量（单位：mm）演变

Figure 3. Evolution of the average hourly precipitation (units: mm) in the whole city of (a) “7.21” (rainfall process happened on July 21 2012) and (b) “7.20” (rainfall process happened on July 20 2016) rainstorm process; the hourly precipitation (units: mm) at (c) Longquan station and (d) Dongshancun station

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图 4 2012年7月21日（a）08时、（b）14时、（c）20时和（d）22日02时，以及2016年7月19日（e）08时、（f）20时和20日（g）08时、（h）20时的500 hPa位势高度（蓝色实线，单位：gpm，蓝色粗实线为5880gpm等高线）、850 hPa风矢量和大于等于12 m s⁻¹的风速（彩色阴影，单位：m s⁻¹）

Figure 4. 500 hPa geopotential height (blue contours, units: gpm, the blue thick lines indicate 5880 gpm), 850 hPa wind field (vector), and wind speed (shaded, ≥12 m s⁻¹) at (a) 0800 BST, (b) 1400 BST, (c) 2000 BST 21 July, (d) 2200 BST 22 July 2012, (e) 0800 BST, (f) 2000 BST 19 July, (g) 0800 BST, (h) 2000 BST 20 July 2016

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图 5 “7·21”和“7·20”特大暴雨过程雷达组合反射率演变（彩色阴影，单位：dBZ）。2012年7月21日（a）09时、（b）13时和（c）21时；2016年7月19日（d）09时、20日（c）13时和（f）17时。紫色实线为200 m地形等高线

Figure 5. Radar reflectivity composite (shaded, units: dBZ) observed by Beijing’ s radar site at (a) 0900 BST, (b) 1300 BST, (c) 2100 BST 21 July 2012, (d) 0900 BST 19 July, (e) 1300 BST, (f) 1700 BST 20 July 2016. Purple line denotes the 200-m terrain elevation

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图 6 （a）2012年7月21日08时和（b）2016年7月20日08时北京南郊观象台探空。蓝色实线为气块湿度曲线，红色实线为气块温度曲线，黑色实线为层结曲线

Figure 6. Soundings were taken at the Beijing metropolitan region’ s southern observatory at (a) 0800 BST July 21, 2012 and (b) 0800 BST July 20, 2016. Blue solid line, the red one and the black one represent the air block humidity curve, temperature curve, and the stratification curve, respectively

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图 7 不同强度等级小时降水量站点数占全市总站点数百分比（直方图，单位：%，左侧纵坐标）的时间演变。其中，黑色虚线为全市平均小时降水量时间演变（单位：mm h⁻¹，右侧纵坐标）。（a）“7·21”, （b）“7·20”

Figure 7. Time evolution of the percentage of hourly precipitation stations of different intensity levels in the total stations of the whole city (histogram, left ordinate) of (a) “7.21” and (b) “7.20”. Black dotted line represents the time evolution of the average hourly precipitation of the whole city (units: mm h⁻¹, right ordinate)

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图 8 不同强度短历时降水事件次数占该站点所有短历时降水事件总次数的百分比（饼图）：（a，b）短历时弱降水事件；（c，d）短历时中等强度降水事件；（e，f）短历时强降水事件。左列为“7·21”过程，右列为“7·20”过程

Figure 8. Percentage of the number of short-duration (a, b) weak, (c, d) medium, (e, f) heavy rainfall events in the total number of short-duration precipitation events at the station (pie chart) in “7·21” (the left column) and “7·20” (the right column) heavy rainfall process

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图 9 不同强度短历时降水事件统计盒须图。（a，b）过程雨量；（c，d）持续时间；（e，f）5分钟最大降水量；（g，h）1小时最大降水量。左列为“7·21”过程，右列为“7·20”过程

Figure 9. Box-and-whisker plot of the statistics of the short-duration precipitation events with varying intensities for (a, b) cumulated rainfall, (c, d) duration, (e, f) the maximum rainfall in 5 minutes, (g, h) the maximum rainfall in 1 hour in “7·21” (the left column) and “7·20” (the right column) heavy rainfall process

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图 10 目标气块运动轨迹：（a）2012年7月12日06时至22日06时；（b）2016年7月11日09时至21日09时。轨迹颜色代表气块距离地表的高度（AGL，单位：m），紫色“*”表示气块轨迹的初始位置

Figure 10. Trajectories of the target particles (a) from 0600 BST July 12 to 0600 BST July 22, 2012, and (b) from 0900 BST July 11 to 0900 BST July 21, 2016. Trajectory segments are color-coded according to the associated altitudes AGL (Above Ground Level, units: m). Purple star marks indicate the beginning of the trajectories

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图 11 由FLEXPART模式诊断的E－P（彩色阴影, 单位：mm）分布（a）“7·21”和（b）“7·20”。图中区域A–G分别为阿拉伯海（A）、印度半岛—孟加拉湾—中南半岛（B）、中国南海（C）、青藏高原和中国西部及其以西地区（D）、中国中东部及沿海地区（E）、西北太平洋及日本海地区（F）、以及亚洲大陆中高纬度和鄂霍兹克海地区（G）

Figure 11. Values ofE－Pdiagnosed based on output from the FLEXPART model (color shading, units: mm) for (a) “7·21” rainfall process, (b) “7·20” rainfall process. The letters A, B, C, D, E, F, G indicate the Arabian sea, the Indian subcontinent–Bay of Bengal–Indochina Peninsula, the South China Sea, the Tibetan Plateau, and western China, the central and eastern China and coastal areas, the Northwest Pacific and the Sea of Japan, the Middle and high latitudes of the Asian continent and the Okhotsk Sea

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图 12 各水汽源区（图11中的黑色方框）对目标降水区域的贡献率：（a）“7·21”过程；（b）“7·20”过程。橘色直方图代表整层大气结果，绿色直方图为边界层内结果

Figure 12. Contribution of each examined moisture source region is denoted by black rectangles (Fig. 10) to the total moisture released in the target region for (a) “7·21” rainfall process and (b) “7·20” rainfall process. The orange histogram represents the integrated result of the entire atmospheric layer, whereas the green histogram represents the integrated result of the boundary layer

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图 13 各水汽源区（a，b）整层大气和（c，d）边界层水汽总摄取量以及不同组成部分占目标降水区域内水汽总释放量百分比。浅蓝色代表沿途损失部分，深蓝色代表目标降水区域释放部分，绿色代表到达目标区域但未释放部分。左列为“7·21”过程，右列为“7·20”过程

Figure 13. Percentage of the moisture uptake from the examined moisture source regions (a, b) across the entire atmospheric layer and (c, d) in the boundary layer to the total moisture release within the target precipitation area for (a, c) “7·21” rainfall process, (b, d) “7·20” rainfall process. These are divided into three parts: the part lost in transit (baby blue), the part released over the target precipitation area (dark blue), and the part that reached the target precipitation area but did not fall as precipitation (green)

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表 1 “7·21”特大暴雨过程不同强度等级短历时降水事件的平均降水量、平均持续时间、和事件数量

Table 1. Average precipitation, average duration, and number of short-duration precipitation events with different intensity levels in the “7·21” heavy rain process

不同强度等级	平均降水量/mm	平均持续时间/min	事件数量/次
5～10	9.23	70.61	124（24.08%）
10～20	26.08	148.92	126（24.46%）
20～	124.06	302.56	265（51.46%）
50～	169.56	363.21	137（26.6%）
注：括号中数值为不同等级事件数量占所有事件数量的百分比

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表 2 “7·20”特大暴雨过程不同强度等级短历时降水事件的平均降水量、平均持续时间、和事件数量

Table 2. Average precipitation, average duration, and number of short-duration precipitation events with different intensity levels in the “7·20” heavy rain process

不同强度等级	平均降水量/mm	平均持续时间/min	事件数量/次
5～10	9.21	70.50	333（33.88%）
10～20	28.90	159.30	431（43.84%）
20～	101.85	373.23	219（22.28%）
50～	124.37	286.67	3（0.305%）
注：括号中数值为不同等级事件数量占所有事件数量的百分比(%)

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