Performance Assessment of CMIP6 Model in Simulating the Water Cycle over East China
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摘要: 本文基于观测和再分析资料，采用Brubaker二元模型评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）中19个模式对中国东部季风区气候态水循环过程的模拟能力，并分析了模拟误差来源。结果表明，CMIP6模式集合平均（MME）能够合理再现观测降水和蒸发的年平均气候态空间分布及年循环特征，与观测值的空间相关系数分别为0.92和0.87。较之观测，MME高估了华北地区降水（0.55 mm d−1），低估了华南沿海地区降水（−0.3 mm d−1）。所有CMIP6模式均高估蒸发强度（偏差0.03～0.98 mm d−1），使得模拟的降水与蒸发之差偏少。模式整体能够模拟出我国东部季风区降水再循环率及不同边界水汽来源的贡献率，但低估了由南边界进入季风区的水汽贡献，导致东亚季风区偏干。通过分析模式对影响水汽通量的两个气象要素（风速和大气比湿）的模拟能力，发现研究区南边界的风速大小决定了模式间水汽输送差异。南边界风速越大的模式，由南边界进入的水汽通量越大，模式模拟的降水越多。西北太平洋辐合带的东西位置是影响南边界南风速的重要系统之一，辐合带位置偏东的模式模拟的南风强度较弱，使得水汽输送偏弱、降水偏少；反之，南边界水汽输送偏强、降水偏多。本文通过评估最新一代CMIP6模式在东亚水循环方面的模拟性能，指出了当前气候模式在模拟西太平洋辐合带位置方面存在的偏差及其对东亚水循环的影响。
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关键词:
- CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) /
- 季风 /
- 水循环 /
- 降水再循环率 /
- 水汽输送
Abstract: This study evaluates the performances of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the water cycle over East China based on observations and reanalysis data using the Brubaker model. Sources of model bias are also investigated. Results reveal that the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) can reasonably simulate the climatic distribution and annual cycle of precipitation and evaporation with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.92 and 0.87, respectively. Compared with observations, MME overestimates the precipitation (0.55 mm d−1) in North China but underestimates the precipitation (−0.3 mm d−1) in coastal areas of South China. All 19 models overestimate the evaporation with biases of 0.03–0.98 mm d−1. Thus, differences between the simulated precipitation and evaporation by most models are smaller than those of the observation and reanalysis data. The MME can well simulate the annual cycle of the contribution of each moisture source to the precipitation but underestimates the contribution of remote moisture via the southern boundary, resulting in a dry bias over the study region. It is found that the southerly wind speed over the southern boundary determines the difference in the water vapor transport among CMIP6 models. The stronger the southerly wind speed is in the model, the higher the water vapor flux incomes via the southern boundary, and the more precipitation the model simulates. The position of the convergence zone over the Northwest Pacific is one of the important systems affecting the southerly wind speed over the southern boundary. The eastward shift of the convergence position in the model results in weaker southerly winds, leading to a weaker moisture transport to the study region and less precipitation, and vice versa. This study systematically evaluates the performance of CMIP6 in reproducing the East Asian water cycle and demonstrates the limitation of the models in simulating the convergence zone over the Northwest Pacific and its impact on the East Asian water cycle. -
图 1 1979～2014年中国东部地区气候态年平均降水强度（单位：mm d−1）的水平分布：（a）CN05.1资料；（b）CMIP6模式集合平均（MME）；（c）MME与CN05.1资料的差值。红色框区为中国东部地区（下同），R表示MME与观测在中国东部地区的空间相关系数，bias表示中国东部地区平均的MME相对于观测的偏差
Figure 1. Horizontal distributions of the climatological annual mean precipitation intensity (units: mm d−1) in eastern China for 1979–2014: (a) CN05.1 data; (b) MME (multi-model ensemble) of CMIP6; (c) differences between MME and CN05.1 data. The red boxes indicate eastern China (the same below). R is the spatial correlation coefficient between MME and CN05.1 data over eastern China, and the bias represents the differences of the regional average precipitation values between MME and CN05.1 data over eastern China
图 2 1979～2014年中国东部地区气候态年平均的蒸发强度（单位：mm d−1）的水平分布：（a）GLDAS资料；（b）CMIP6模式MME；（c）MME与GLDAS资料的差值
Figure 2. Horizontal distributions of the climatological annual evaporation intensity (units: mm d−1) in eastern China for 1979–2014: (a) GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems) data; (b) MME of CMIP6; (c) differences between MME and GLDAS data
图 3 1979～2014年观测、再分析资料及CMIP6模式中国东部地区区域平均的（a）降水、（b）蒸发及（c）降水与蒸发之差（P－E）的气候态年循环分布。黑色线、红色线和深蓝色线分别代表观测、CMIP6模式MME和再分析资料集合平均，浅蓝色线、黄色线、绿色线和紫色线分别代表MERRA2、ERA-Interim、JRA55和ERA5，灰色线代表CMIP6各模式
Figure 3. Climatological annual cycle of the (a) precipitation, (b) evaporation, and (c) their differences (P－E) in the observations, reanalysis, and CMIP6 models area-averaged over eastern China for 1979–2014. The black, red, and dark blue lines represent the observation, MME, and reanalysis mean, respectively. The light blue, yellow, green, and purple lines represent MERRA2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) data, ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis) data, JRA55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) data, and ERA5 (Fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF) data, respectively. Gray lines denote the CMIP6 models
图 4 1979～2014年ERA5资料与CMIP6模式中（a）本地蒸发和（b）西边界、（c）东边界、（d）北边界、（e）南边界来源水汽对中国东部地区降水贡献率的年循环。ERA5、CMIP6模式MME、湿模式平均和干模式平均分别用黑色、红色、绿色和黄色线表示，阴影表示19个CMIP6模式的范围，下同
Figure 4. Climate mean annual cycles of contributions to the precipitation over eastern China from the (a) local evaporation, moisture influxes from (b) western boundary, (d) eastern boundary, (d) northern boundary, (e) southern boundary derived from ERA5 data and CMIP6 models during 1979–2014. Results for ERA5, MME of CMIP6, wet models mean, and dry models mean are represented by black, red, green, and yellow lines, respectively. Shadings indicate the range of 19 CMIP6 models, the same below
图 5 1979～2014年CMIP6各模式在气候态平均降水（Clim_PRE）、蒸发分布（Clim_EVP），降水（AC_PRE）、蒸发（AC_EVP），P－E（AC_P-E），降水再循环率（Recycling），西（Contribution_west）、东（Contribution_east）、北（Contribution_north）及南（Contribution_south）边界输入水汽对降水贡献率的年循环分布方面的技巧评分
Figure 5. Skill score of each CMIP6 model in simulating the climatological precipitation (Clim_PRE) and evaporation (Clim_EVP), annual cycle of precipitation (AC_PRE), evaporation (AC_EVP), P－E (AC_P-E), precipitation recycling ratio (Recycling), the contribution of western (Contribution_west), eastern (Contribution_east), northern (Contribution_north), and southern (Contribution_south) influx to the precipitation during 1979–2014
图 6 1979～2014年平均的ERA5资料与CMIP6模式外部输入到中国东部地区的水汽通量（MI）的年循环：（a）水汽输入总量；（b）西边界；（c）东边界；（d）北边界；（e）南边界
Figure 6. Climate mean annual cycles of (a) total moisture influxes (MI) and (b) western boundary, (d) eastern boundary, (d) northern boundary, (e) southern boundary moisture influxes derived from ERA5 data and CMIP6 models to eastern China during 1979–2014
图 7 1979～2014年平均的ERA5资料与CMIP6模式中由（a）西、（b）东、（c）北、（d）南边界不同层（整层、高、中、低）进入中国东部地区的水汽通量。实线表示ERA5资料，虚线表示CMIP6模式MME。整层、低层、中层和高层水汽分别用黑色、红色、黄色和蓝色线表示
Figure 7. Climate mean of moisture influxes to eastern China via (a) western, (b) eastern, (c) northern, and (d) southern boundary in different levels (vertical integrate, low-level, mid-level, and high-level) during 1979–2014 derived from ERA5 data and CMIP6 models. Solid lines indicate ERA5 data and dash lines indicate MME of CMIP6. Whole, low-level, mid-level, and high-level moisture influxes are represented by black, red, yellow, and blue lines, respectively
图 8 1979～2014年平均的ERA5资料与CMIP6模式中夏季各边界低层水汽输入量（横坐标）与水汽含量（纵坐标，左列）、风场（纵坐标，右列）的散点图。绿色字母表示湿模式，棕色字母表示干模式，红点表示ERA5资料
Figure 8. Scatter plots of climate mean summer low-level moisture influxes (x-axis) versus low-level water vapor content (y-axis, left panel), low-level wind field (y-axis, right panel) at each boundary in ERA5 data and CMIP6 models during 1979–2014. Green letters, brown letters, and red dots indicate wet models, dry models, and ERA5 data, respectively
图 9 1979～2014年夏季平均的低层风场（箭头，单位：m s−1）、水汽含量（阴影，单位：mm）分布：（a）ERA5资料；（b）CMIP6模式MME、（c）湿模式MME、（d）干模式MME与ERA5资料的差值。黑色斜线区域表示水汽含量差异通过15%显著性水平，风场差值场只显示了通过15%显著性水平检验的区域
Figure 9. Spatial distributions of climate summer mean low-level winds (arrows, units: m s−1) and water vapor content (shadings, units: mm) during 1979–2014: (a) ERA5 data; differences between (b) MME of CMIP6 models, (c) wet models mean, (d) dry models mean and ERA5. The black lines indicate that the difference in water vapor content is at the 15% significance level. Only the wind difference vectors statistically at the 15% significance level are shown
图 10 1979～2014年夏季平均的850 hPa风场（单位：m s−1）的水平分布：（a）ERA5资料；（b）CMIP6模式MME；（c）湿模式MME；（d）干模式MME。红点为西北太平洋地区纬向风速最小的位置，即西北太平洋辐合带的位置
Figure 10. Spatial distributions of climate summer mean winds at 850 hPa during 1979–2014 derived from (a) ERA5 data, (b) MME of CMIP6, (c) MME of wet models, and (d) MME of dry models. The red dots indicate the locations of the minimum wind speed over the Northwest Pacific, i.e., the location of the Northwest Pacific convergence zone
图 11 1979～2014多年平均夏季ERA5资料与CMIP6模式西北太平洋辐合带经度位置与南边界低层（a）水汽输入量、（b）风场的散点图。绿色字母表示湿模式，棕色字母表示干模式，红点表示ERA5资料
Figure 11. Scatter plots of the climate summer mean location of the Northwest Pacific convergence zone versus (a) low-level moisture influxes and (b) low-level wind field at the southern boundary in ERA5 data and CMIP6 models during 1979–2014. Green letters, brown letters, and red dots indicate wet models, dry models, and ERA5, respectively
表 1 19个CMIP6全球气候模式基本信息
Table 1. Basic information of the 19 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models
模式名称 所属国家（地区） 所属机构简称 大气资料水平分辨率（纬度×经度） BCC-CSM2 中国 BCC 1.125°×1.125° BCC-ESM1 中国 BCC 2.8°×2.8° CAMS-CSM1-0 中国 CAMS 1.125°×1.125° CanESM5 加拿大 CCCma 2.8°×2.8° CESM2 美国 NCAR 0.9375°×1.25° CESM2-WACCM 美国 NCAR 0.9375°×1.25° CNRM-CM6-1 法国 CNRM-CERFACS 1.4°×1.4° CNRM-ESM2-1 法国 CNRM-CERFACS 1.4°×1.4° EC-Earth3 欧盟 EC-Earth-Consortium 0.7°×0.7° EC-Earth3-Veg 欧盟 EC-Earth-Consortium 0.7°×0.7° GFDL-CM4 美国 NOAA-GFDL 1°×1.25° GISS-E2-1-G 美国 NASA-GISS 2°×2.5° GISS-E2-1-H 美国 NASA-GISS 2°×2.5° IPSL-CM6A-LR 法国 IPSL 1.25°×2.5° MIROC6 日本 MIROC 1.4°×1.4° MIROC-ES2L 日本 MIROC 2.8°×2.8° MRI-ESM2-0 日本 MRI 1.125°×1.125° NESM3 中国 NUIST 1.875°×1.875° UKESM1-0-LL 英国 MOHC 1.25°×1.875° 
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