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吴浩, 颜鹏程, 侯威, 等. 2022. 近百年及未来百年PDO位相年代际转变检测及其早期预警信号研究[J]. 大气科学, 46(2): 225−236. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.20127
引用本文: 吴浩, 颜鹏程, 侯威, 等. 2022. 近百年及未来百年PDO位相年代际转变检测及其早期预警信号研究[J]. 大气科学, 46(2): 225−236. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.20127
WU Hao, YAN Pengcheng, HOU Wei, et al. 2022. Detection of Decadal Phase Transition and Early Warning Signals of PDO in Recent and Next 100 Years [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(2): 225−236. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.20127
Citation: WU Hao, YAN Pengcheng, HOU Wei, et al. 2022. Detection of Decadal Phase Transition and Early Warning Signals of PDO in Recent and Next 100 Years [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(2): 225−236. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.20127

近百年及未来百年PDO位相年代际转变检测及其早期预警信号研究

Detection of Decadal Phase Transition and Early Warning Signals of PDO in Recent and Next 100 Years

  • 摘要: 本文基于临界慢化的理论,采用太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)指数的近百年(1900~2019年)历史数据及未来百年(2006~2100年)模式模拟数据,首先通过滑动t检验确定PDO位相转变的时间,进而借助于表征临界慢化现象的方差和自相关系数,研究了PDO年代际位相转折的早期预警信号。结果表明:(1)近百年来PDO发生了4次显著的位相转变,每次位相转变前的5~10年可以提取到早期预警信号;(2)通过对CMIP5气候模式资料计算得到的PDO进行统计合成得到未来百年的PDO序列,检测结果表明在2040年和2080年前后发生年代际转折,转折前的5~10年能够检测到早期预警信号;(3)近百年和未来百年PDO序列的位相转变及早期预警信号研究证实在PDO发生位相转变之前方差和自相关系数总能提前数年给出预警信号,也揭示了未来PDO的转折时间。

     

    Abstract: Based on the theory of critical slowing down, this study investigates the decadal phase transition and the early warning signals of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) series using the historical monitoring data of PDO in the past 100 years (1900–2019) and the simulation data of the future century (2006–2100) model. First, the phase transition time of the PDO is determined by the moving t test technique. Thereafter, the early warning signal of phase transition is analyzed using the variance and autocorrelation coefficients, which characterize the critical slowing phenomenon. The results show that: (1) Four significant phase changes in the PDO occurred in the recent 100 years, and early warning signals can be given 5–10 years in advance. (2) In the next 100 years, the study of the PDO, which is obtained based on the CMIP5 data, shows that the PDO will have two decadal transitions around 2040 and 2080, and early warning signals can be given 5–10 years in advance. (3) Based on the study of the phase transition detection and early warning signals of PDO sequences in the recent and next 100 years, the variance and autocorrelation coefficients can be detected as the early warning signals of abrupt change several years in advance, which can be utilized to predict the climate changes that will affect the PDO in the future.

     

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