Influence of Indian Ocean Warming on Extreme Precipitation in the Western Tianshan Mountains from Late Spring to Early Summer
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摘要: 利用NOAA（美国国家海洋和大气管理局）气候预测中心的逐日格点降水资料分析了春末夏初（5、6月）天山极端降水时空变化以及印度洋海盆一致模（IOBM）影响极端降水的机制。结果表明：春末夏初天山极端降水变化具有明显的空间差异，西天山地区极端降水显著增加，其他区域极端降水变化不显著。诊断分析和数值模式模拟结果表明，春末夏初西天山地区极端降水增加与同期IOBM正异常促进冷暖气流在西天山地区交汇有关。IOBM正异常，一方面有利于东欧至中亚北部反气旋异常加强，促进冷空气向南输送。另一方面使得印度洋海温非均匀增暖，产生异常垂直环流，其下沉支使阿拉伯海和印度半岛产生反气旋异常，异常反气旋和偏南气流共同促进印度洋暖湿水汽向西天山输送，从而有利于西天山地区极端降水增加。Abstract: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center’s daily grid precipitation data is used to analyze the spatial–temporal change of extreme precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains from late spring to early summer (May and June), as well as the mechanism of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) on extreme precipitation. The results show a clear spatial difference in extreme precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains from late spring to early summer. Extreme precipitation increased dramatically in the western Tianshan Mountains, whereas other regions experienced little variation. The diagnostic and numerical simulation results consistently showed that the increase in extreme precipitation in the western Tianshan Mountains was caused by a coetaneous positive anomaly of IOBM, which promoted the convergence of warm and cold airflows in the western Tianshan Mountains. On the one hand, the positive anomaly of IOBM strengthened the anticyclonic anomalies located in Eastern Europe and the northern part of Central Asia, promoting cold airflow southward transportation. On the other hand, it induced the Indian Ocean to warm unevenly, resulting in abnormal vertical circulation and subsidence, which caused the anticyclonic anomalies in the Arabian Sea and the Indian peninsula. Warm moisture from the Indian Ocean was delivered to the western Tianshan Mountains by the anomalous anticyclone and southerly airflow, which aided in the increase of extreme precipitation in the western Tianshan Mountains.
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图 1 1979～2018年中亚（a、c）春季、（b、d）夏季年均极端降水频次（第一行，单位：d）以及累积极端降水量（第二行，单位：mm）空间分布。黑框代表天山地区
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of annual average extreme precipitation frequency (top line, units: d) and total extreme precipitation (bottom line, units: mm) in (a, c) spring and (b, d) summer during 1979–2018 in central Asia. The black rectangles represent the Tianshan Mountains regions
图 2 1979～2018年天山年均（a）月降水量对区域年降水量的贡献，（b）月极端降水量对区域当月降水量的贡献以及（c）月极端降水量对区域年降水量的贡献量随时间的变化。灰色和黑色长柱分别表示频次和累积降水的贡献量
Figure 2. Temporal variations of annual average contribution of (a) monthly precipitation to regional annual precipitation, (b) extreme monthly precipitation to regional monthly precipitation, and (c) extreme monthly precipitation to regional annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains regions from 1979 to 2018. The gray and black bars represent the frequency and total precipitation contributions, respectively
图 3 1979～2018年中亚（a、c）5月、（b、d）6月极端降水频次变化趋势（第一行，单位：d a−1）和累积极端降水量变化趋势（第二行，单位：mm a−1）空间分布。白点区域为通过90%显著性检验，黑框为西天山地区
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation frequency trend (top line, units: d a−1) and extreme precipitation trend (bottom line, units: mm a−1) in (a, c) May and (b, d) June and total during 1979–2018 in Central Asia. The white dots indicate significance at the 90% and the black rectangles represent the Western Tianshan Mountains regions
图 4 1979～2018年西天山（a、c）5月、（b、d）6月区域平均极端降水频次（第一行，单位：d）和累积极端降水量（第二行，单位：mm）。黑实线、黑虚线、灰虚线分别为极端降水频次/累积极端降水量、9年滑动平均、线性趋势，*、**表示趋势通过90%和95%显著性检验
Figure 4. Regional average of extreme precipitation frequency (top line, units: d) and total extreme precipitation (bottom line, units: mm) in (a, c) May and (b, d) June in the Western Tianshan Mountains during 1979–2018. The black solid line represents extreme precipitation frequency or total extreme precipitation, the black dash line represents the 9-year running mean, and the gray dash line is the linear trend; *, ** indicates significance over the 90% or 95% confidence level
图 5 西天山极端降水日合成的（a–c）5月、（d–f）6月（a、d）500 hPa位势高度（阴影，单位：gpm）及风场（矢量，单位：m s−1）异常分布、（b、e）整层水汽通量（矢量，单位：kg m−1 s−1）及水汽通量散度（阴影，单位：kg m−2 s−1）分布和（c、f）整层水汽通量（矢量，单位：kg m−1 s−1）及水汽通量散度（阴影，单位：kg m−2 s−1）异常分布。红框为西天山地区，（a、d）中从北至南的紫线和绿线分别表示平均态及极端降水日平均5500 gpm、5600 gpm、5750 gpm位势高度线，打点区域为高度场通过95%显著性检验区域
Figure 5. Distributions of (a, d) anomalous geopotential height (shaded, units: gpm) and winds (vectors, units: m s−1) at 500 hPa, (b, e) the vertical integral of water vapor flux (units: kg m−1 s−1) and water vapor flux divergence (units: kg m−2 s−1), and (c, f) the anomalous vertical integral of water vapor flux (units: kg m−1 s−1) and water vapor flux divergence (units: kg m−2 s−1) on an extreme precipitation day in (a–c) May and (d–f) June. The red rectangles represent the Western Tianshan Mountains region, the purple and green lines from north to south in (a, d) represent the 5500 gpm, 5600 gpm, and 5750 gpm geopotential height of the climatological mean and extreme precipitation day mean, and dotted areas indicate the significance of height over the 95% confidence level
图 6 （a、b）5月及（c、d）6月印度洋海温距平（a、c）EOF第一模态和（b、d）对应时间系数（灰色长柱）。黑色实线为同期标准化印度洋海盆一致模（IOBM）指数，灰色虚线为西天山同期标准化极端降水序列
Figure 6. (a, c) The EOF first mode and (b, d) corresponding time series (gray bars) of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly in (a, b) May and (c, d) June. The black lines and gray dashed lines reflect the standardized IOBM (Indian Ocean Basin Mode) index and the standardized extreme precipitation series of the Western Tianshan Mountains over the same period
图 7 IOBM指数高值年5月（左列）及6月（右列）合成的（a、b）200 hPa、（c、d）500 hPa高度场（填色，单位：gpm）和风场（矢量，单位：m s−1）异常分布以及（e，f）整层水汽通量（矢量，单位：kg m−1 s−1）和水汽通量散度（阴影，单位：kg m−2 s−1）异常分布。（a–d）中打点区域为高度场通过95%显著性检验区域，（e、f）中箭头区域为水汽通量通过95%显著性检验区域
Figure 7. Distributions of anomalous (a, b) 200 hPa, (c, d) 500 hPa geopotential height (shaded, units: gpm) and winds (vector, units: m s−1), and (e, f) vertical integral of water vapor flux (vectors, units: kg m−1 s−1) and water vapor flux divergence (shaded, units: kg m−2 s−1) of high IOBM index years in May (left column) and June (right column). Dotted areas in (a–d) indicate the significance of height over the 95% confidence level, while vectors in (e, f) indicate the significance of water flux over the 95% confidence level
图 8 （a）5月及（b）6月IOBM指数高值年热带印度洋海表温度异常（单位：°C）合成
Figure 8. Composition of anomalous tropical Indian Ocean SST (units: °C) in (a) May and (b) June of high IOBM index years
图 9 （a、b）5月及（c、d）6月IOBM指数高值年异常垂直环流：（a、c）10°N～25°N纬向异常垂直剖面；（b）50°E～80°E、（d）80°E～110°E经向异常垂直剖面。水平速度单位：m s−1，垂直速度单位：−1×10−1 Pa s−1，阴影区域为垂直速度通过95%显著性检验的区域
Figure 9. Anomalous vertical circulation in (a, b) May and (c, d) June of high IOBM index years: (a, c) Anomalous longitude–height cross section along 10°N–25°N; anomalous latitude–height cross section along (b) 50°E–80°E and (d) 80°E–110°E. Horizontal velocity units: m s−1, vertical velocity units: −1×10−1 Pa s−1, shade indicate the significance of vertical velocity over the 95% confidence level
图 10 5月（左列）、6月（右列）（a、b）200 hPa、（c、d）500 hPa高度场（填色，单位：gpm）和风场（矢量，单位：m s−1）敏感性试验与控制试验差值；（e、f）整层水汽通量（矢量，单位：kg m−1 s−1）及总降水率（填色，单位：mm d−1）敏感性试验与控制试验差值分布
Figure 10. Differences of (a, b) 200 hPa, (c, d) 500 hPa geopotential height (shaded, units: gpm) and winds (vector, units: m s−1) among experiments and control tests; differences of (e, f) vertical integral of water vapor flux (vectors, units: kg m−1 s−1) and total precipitation rate (shaded, units: mm d−1) among experiments and control tests in May (left column) and June (right column)
表 1 西天山极端降水序列与同期EOF时间系数及IOBM指数的相关
Table 1. Correlation between extreme precipitation series and EOF time coefficient and IOBM index in the Western Tianshan Mountains over the same period
相关系数 PC1 PC2 IOBM指数 去ENSO IOBM指数 5月 0.30 * 0.03 0.34 ** 0.31* 6月 0.33 ** −0.25 0.41*** 0.42 *** 注：*、**、***分别表示相关系数通过90%、95%、99%显著性检验 
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