Dynamic Analysis and Local Circulation Numerical Simulation of a Warm-sector Mountain Rainstorm Event in the Western Sichuan Basin
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摘要: 本文利用国家基本站和区域自动站逐小时雨量、FY-2G卫星TBB、ERA5再分析等资料，对2017年7月23日发生在四川盆地西部的一次暖区山地暴雨事件进行动力诊断分析和数值模拟试验。主要得到以下结果：（1）此次暖区山地突发性暴雨发生在西太平洋副热带高压边缘的弱天气形势背景下，盆地西部前期高温、高能的环境条件与伸入盆地的东南风受到龙门山脉的强迫抬升是这次暴雨触发的诱因。（2）山地—平原环流在夜间的转换使背景东南风形成深厚的倾斜上升运动，是暴雨增强和中尺度对流云团重组发展的原因。（3）进一步通过数值模拟得出，山地—平原环流受近地面热力扰动驱动。在白天，盆地西部山坡为正虚温扰动区，而同一高度的平原则是负虚温扰动，山地—平原环流从平原吹向山地；到了夜晚，虚温扰动在山地、平原两侧的分布发生反转，山地—平原环流因此转为从山地吹向平原；当去除模式地面热源时，近地面的热力扰动几乎消失，盆地西部山地—平原环流无法形成，与山地—平原环流对应的辐合区随之消失，导致模拟的过程累积降水量显著减少、强降水中心消失。Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data from automatic weather stations, FY-2G TBB data, and ERA5 reanalysis data, dynamic analysis and numerical experiments are performed for a warm-sector mountain rainstorm event in the western Sichuan Basin on 23 July 2017. The results showed that: (1) The warm-sector mountain torrential rainstorm occurred at the edge of the West Pacific subtropical high under the background of weak synoptic forcing. The high temperature and high energy in the western Sichuan Basin and the southeast wind intruding into the basin, lifted by Longmen Mountain, induced this rainstorm. (2) The conversion of the mountain–plain circulation is the reason for the intensification of the rainstorm and the reorganization of the mesoscale convective cloud clusters. (3) Moreover, the mountain–plain circulation uplifts the background wind that causes the upward sloping motion. Further study of the results of the numerical simulation showed that the mountain–plain circulation is driven by near-surface thermal perturbation. In the daytime, a positive virtual temperature disturbance area on the hillside of the western Sichuan Basin is detected, and a plain-to-mountain flow is developed. After sunset, the distribution of the virtual temperature disturbance on the mountain and plain is reversed. Therefore, the mountain–plain circulation shifts from mountain to plain. When the model surface heat source is removed, the near-surface thermal perturbation tends to disappear, and the mountain–plain circulation does not form in the western Sichuan Basin. Consequently, the convergence area related to the mountain–plain circulation dissipates, resulting in the decline of the simulated cumulative precipitation and the disappearance of the heavy precipitation center.
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图 1 （a）2017年7月23日17时至24日05时12 h累计降水量（单位：mm）分布，线段EF是图2、4中垂直剖面位置；（b）代表站点小时雨量（实线）、降水区（29°～33°N，102°～105°E）1 h累计雨量≥20 mm站点个数（虚线）随时间演变
Figure 1. (a) Distribution of the 12-h accumulated precipitation (units: mm) from 1700 BJT (Beijing time) on 23 July 2017 to 0500 BJT on 24 July 2017, EF denotes the position of the cross section in Figs. 2 and 4; (b) temporal evolution of the hourly precipitation (solid lines) in the representative stations and the number of stations (dashed lines) with 1-h cumulative precipitation more than 20 mm in the precipitation zone (29°–33°N, 102°–105°E)
图 2 2017年7月23日14时（a）500 hPa高度场（等值线，单位：dagpm）、风场（风羽，单位：m s−1），（b）200 hPa高度场（等值线，单位：dagpm）、散度场（彩色阴影，单位：10−4 s−1）；2017年7月23日17时（c）海平面气压场（等值线，单位：hPa），（d）沿图1a中线段EF（强降水中心）的暖平流（彩色阴影，单位：10−4 K s−1）、假相当位温（等值线，单位：K）纬向—垂直剖面
Figure 2. (a) Geopotential height (contours, units: dagpm) and wind (barbs, units: m s−1) at 500 hPa, (b) geopotential height (contours, units: dagpm) and divergence (color shadings, units: 10−4 s−1) at 200 hPa at 1400 BJT on 23 July 2017; (c) sea level pressure (contours, units: hPa), (d) cross section of warm advection (color shadings, units: 10−4 K s−1) and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature (contours, units: K) along EF (heavy precipitation center) in Fig. 1a at 1700 BJT on 23 July 2017
图 3 2017年7月23日17时850 hPa（a）水汽通量（矢量，单位：kg m−1 hPa−1 s−1）、整层可降水量（填色，单位：mm），（b）暖平流（填色，单位：10−4 K s−1）、假相当位温（等值线，单位：K）
Figure 3. (a) Water vapor fluxes (vectors, units: kg m−1 hPa−1 s−1) and vertical integrated precipitable water vapor (shadings, units: mm), (b) warm advection (shadings, units: 10−4 K s−1) and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature (contours, units: K) at 850 hPa at 1700 BJT on 23 July 2017
图 4 2017年7月23日17时（a）850 hPa垂直速度（填色，单位：Pa s−1）、风场（风羽，单位：m s−1），（c）垂直速度（填色，单位：Pa s−1）和合成风场（矢量）沿图1a中线段EF的垂直剖面；2017年7月23日21时（b）850 hPa散度（填色，单位：10−4 s−1）、风场（风羽，单位：m s−1），（d）散度（填色，单位：10−4 s−1）、相较于前一时次的东南风速增量（等值线，单位：m s−1）、合成风场（矢量）沿线段EF垂直剖面。图b中棕色实线为切变线，图c、d中合成风场为Vcosθ（单位：m s−1）与−5 ω（单位：Pa s−1）的合成，θ为实际风向与东南风向的夹角
Figure 4. (a) Vertical velocity (shadings, units: Pa s−1) and wind (barbs, units: m s−1) at 850 hPa, (c) cross section of vertical velocity (shadings, units: Pa s−1) and constructed wind (vectors) along line EF in Fig. 1a at 1700 BJT on 23 July 2017; (b) divergence (shadings, units: 10−4 s−1) and wind (barbs, units: m s−1) at 850 hPa, (d) cross section of divergence (shadings, units: 10−4 s−1), increment (contours, units: m s−1) of the southeast wind speed deviated from the last time, and constructed wind field (vectors) at 2100 BJT on 23 July 2017. In Fig. b. the brown solid line denotes the shear line. In Figs. c, d, constructed wind is consisting of Vcosθ (units: m s−1) and −5 ω (units: Pa s−1), where θ denotes the angle between the real wind direction and the southeast wind
图 5 2017年7月23日（a）20时、（b）21时、（c）22时、（d）24日00时FY-2G卫星TBB（填色，单位：°C）和850 hPa风场（风羽，单位：m s−1）。图c、d中的棕色实线为切变线
Figure 5. TBB (shadings, units: °C) from the FY-2G satellite and 850-hPa wind (barbs, units: m s−1) at (a) 2000 BJT, (b) 2100 BJT, and (c) 2200 BJT on July 23 2017, and (d) 0000 BJT on July 24 2017. In Figs. c, d, the brown solid lines denote the shear line
图 6 （a）盆地西部地形（填色，单位：m）和加密自动站的站点（黑色点）分布；（b）图6a中矩形框内所有站点经三点平滑后平均纬向风（单位：m s−1），（c）雅安、乐山站位温（曲线，单位：K）和两站之间平均风场（风羽，单位：m s−1）随时间演变曲线。图b、c中矩形框为暴雨发生时段
Figure 6. (a) Distributions of topography (shadings, units: m) of the western Sichuan Basin and the automatic weather stations (black dots); (b) time series of the regional mean zonal wind speed (units: m s−1) after three-point smoothing in the rectangle in Fig. 6a; (c) time series of the potential temperature (θ, lines, units: K) and mean wind field (barbs, units: m s−1) in Yaan station and Leshan station. In Figs. b and c, the rectangle denotes the period of heavy rain
图 7 （a）模拟区域，2017年7月23日17时至24日05时（b）控制试验、（c）敏感试验12 h累计降水量（单位：mm）分布
Figure 7. (a) Model domain, distribution of the 12-h accumulated precipitation (units: mm) obtained from (b) control experiment, (c) sensitivity experiment from 1700 BJT on 23 July 2017 to 0500 BJT on 24 July 2017
图 8 2017年7月23日19时（上）、21时（下）小时累计降水量（单位：mm）分布：（a、d）实况；（b、e）控制试验；（c、f）敏感性试验
Figure 8. Distributions of the hourly accumulated precipitation (units: mm) at 1900 BJT (upper) and 2100 BJT (lower) on 23 July 2017: (a, d) Observation; (b, e) control experiment; (c, f) sensitivity experiment
图 9 四川盆地西部平均10 m（a）风向[单位：(°)]、（b）风速（单位：m s−1）随时间演变曲线，黑（蓝）色线为观测（模拟）。图a中红色实线为东西风分界线。2017年7月23日（c）08时温江、（d）20时宜宾探空站观测和模拟的风廓线（风羽，单位：m s−1）
Figure 9. Time series of the regional mean 10-m wind (a) direction [units: (°)] and (b) speed (units: m s−1) in the western Sichuan Basin obtained from the automatic weather stations (black lines) and WRF simulation data (blue lines). In Fig. a, the red solid line denotes the boundary between east and west winds. Wind profiles (barbs, units: m s−1) obtained from the observations and simulations at (c) 0800 BJT 23 July 2017 at Wenjiang sounding station and (d) 2000 BJT 23 July 2017 at Yibin sounding station
图 10 （a–c）控制试验、（d–f）敏感试验中扰动虚温（填色，单位：K）和扰动纬向风速（等值线，单位：m s−1）沿30°N的垂直剖面：（a、d）23日14时；（b、e）23日21时；（c、f）24日02时。扰动虚温为剖面内（30°N，102°～104°E）相对于高度平均值的偏差，扰动纬向风速为相对于日平均值的偏差。图a–c中红色箭头表示山地—平原环流方向
Figure 10. Cross section of the perturbation virtual temperature (shadings, units: K) and perturbation zonal wind speed (contours, units: m s−1) along 30°N from the (a–c) control experiment and (d–f) sensitivity experiment at (a, d) 1400 BJT on 23 July 2017, (b, e) 2100 BJT on 23 July 2017, (c, f) 0200 BJT on 24 July 2017. Perturbation virtual temperature is deviation from the mean height in (30°N, 102°–104°E), perturbation zonal wind speed is deviation from the daily mean zonal wind speed. In Figs. a–c, the red arrow denotes the direction of the mountain–plain circulation
图 11 2017年7月23日19时（左）、21时（右）（a、b）CTRL试验、（c、d）SEN试验模拟的975 m高度上的散度（填色，单位：10−4 s−1）和风场（风羽，单位：m s−1）。图a、b中棕色实线为切变线
Figure 11. Distribution of the simulated divergence (shadings, units: 10−4 s−1) and wind (barbs, units: m s−1) at 975-m height of from (a, b) CTRL experiment, (c, d) SEN experiment at 1900 BJT (left) and 2100 BJT (right) on 23 July 2017. In Figs. a and b, the brown solid line denotes the shear line
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