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四川盆地夏季降水年际变化的主模态分析

郑然 陈丽娟 李维京 王顺久 马振峰 梁宁 刘嘉慧敏

郑然, 陈丽娟, 李维京, 等. 2022. 四川盆地夏季降水年际变化的主模态分析[J]. 大气科学, 46(6): 1454−1468 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2201.21167
引用本文: 郑然, 陈丽娟, 李维京, 等. 2022. 四川盆地夏季降水年际变化的主模态分析[J]. 大气科学, 46(6): 1454−1468 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2201.21167
ZHENG Ran, CHEN Lijuan, LI Weijing, et al. 2022. Interannual Variation of the Leading Modes of Summertime Precipitation in the Sichuan Basin [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(6): 1454−1468 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2201.21167
Citation: ZHENG Ran, CHEN Lijuan, LI Weijing, et al. 2022. Interannual Variation of the Leading Modes of Summertime Precipitation in the Sichuan Basin [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(6): 1454−1468 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2201.21167

四川盆地夏季降水年际变化的主模态分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2201.21167
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划重点专项2018YFC1506006,中国气象局预报员专项CMAYBY2019-101,高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目SCQXKJQN202110,中国气象局创新发展专项CXFZ2022J031,中国气象局西南地区业务能力提升攻关团队
详细信息
    作者简介:

    郑然,女,1990年出生,硕士,工程师,主要从事短期气候预测研究。E-mail: zhengran0512@163.com

    通讯作者:

    陈丽娟,E-mail: chenlj@cma.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P461

Interannual Variation of the Leading Modes of Summertime Precipitation in the Sichuan Basin

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1506006), Special Project for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration (Grant CMAYBY2019-101), Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory Science and Technology Development Fund Project (Grant SCQXKJQN202110), Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration (Grant CXFZ2022J031), China Meteorological Administration Southwest Region Business Capability Improvement Team
  • 摘要: 利用1979~2018年四川盆地134站夏季降水观测资料、ERA-Interim再分析资料以及英国气象局哈德莱中心的海表温度及海冰资料,对比分析了四川盆地夏季降水异常主模态及其同期大气环流和前期海温海冰演变特征的差异,以探讨其形成机制及前期预测信号。结果表明:四川盆地夏季降水存在两类优势空间模态:全区一致型和东西反相型,在20世纪80年代多出现东西反相型,90年代到21世纪初以一致型为主,进入21世纪10年代后又多表现为东西反相型。不同模态所对应的大气环流和海温海冰的演变具有明显差异,全区一致型降水分布受低纬系统影响显著,在500 hPa高度场上主要表现为西太平洋副热带高压的位置及强度异常;850 hPa风场为辐合或辐散特征,受到来自孟加拉湾、南海、西太平洋三条水汽通道的共同影响,其中与南海水汽通道的相关性最高,一致型降水多/少年水汽在盆地区域南北边界为同收/同支;环流可能受到前期ENSO事件衰减的显著影响。东西反相型降水分布受中高纬环流的影响较大,在500 hPa高度场上的特征类似于极地欧亚型(POL)遥相关;水汽在区域南北边界为一收一支,西多东少型为南收北支,而西少东多型为北收南支,与西太平洋水汽通道关系显著;环流可能受到前期北极海冰异常的影响。
  • 图  1  四川盆地134站站点分布

    Figure  1.  Distribution of 134 stations in the Sichuan Basin

    图  2  四川盆地1979~2018年夏季降水正交经验函数分解(a)第一模态、(b)第二模态及其对应的时间系数(c)PC1、(d)PC2(柱状图为时间系数,实线为五年滑动平均)

    Figure  2.  (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2 modes of the summer rainfall in the Sichuan Basin from 1979 to 2018, and their associated time series (c) PC1 and (d) PC2 (the bars in c and d are the PC1 and PC2, respectively, and the solid line is the PC five-year moving average)

    图  3  PC1回归(a)500 hPa高度场异常(单位:gpm)、(b)850 hPa风场异常(单位:m s−1)、(c)200 hPa纬向风场异常(填色,单位:m s−1)及(d)PC1正(红色)、负(蓝色)异常年5880 gpm线合成(黑色方框为四川盆地所在位置;图a、b、c中填色为回归场通过显著性检验的区域,绝对值大于0.304、0.393分别表示置信水平达到95%和99%,冷、暖色分别表示负、正异常区;图c中的虚线为纬向风速大于25 m s−1和30 m s−1的气候平均态, 图d中黑色实线为气候平均态)

    Figure  3.  (a) 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly (units: gpm), (b) 850 hPa wind anomaly (units: m s−1), and (c) 200 hPa zonal wind anomaly (unit: m s−1) were regressed upon PC1 and synthesized 5880 gpm (d) based on PC1 positive phase (red line) and negative phase (blue line) (The black box represents the position of the Sichuan Basin; filled areas with absolute values greater than 0.304 and 0.393 represent the 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively; cold and warm colors represents negative and positive anomaly areas; the line in (c) represents the climate mean of the horizontal wind speeds greater than 25 m s−1 and 30 m s−1; the black line in (d) represents the climate mean of 5880 gpm)

    图  4  (a–c)同图3,但为PC2回归结果;(d)PC2高低值年贝加尔湖区500 hPa高度场平均的异常合成值(单位:gpm)

    Figure  4.  (a–c) Same as Fig.3, but for regressed on PC2; (d) Synthesized 500 hPa geopotential height (units: gpm) anomaly averaged over Baikal area based on PC2 value

    图  5  1979~2018年夏季平均水汽输送通量矢量(单位:kg m−1 s−1),黑色方框为四川盆地所在位置

    Figure  5.  Average water vapor transport flux vectors in summer from 1979 to 2018 (units: kg m−1 s−1), the black box is the position of the Sichuan Basin

    图  6  四川盆地夏季降水主模态对应(a,b)PC1、(c,d)PC2(a,c)正(b,d)负异常年各边界水汽收支(单位:kg s−1),红色箭头表示支出,蓝色箭头表示收入

    Figure  6.  Water vapor budget (units: kg s−1) of the (a, c) positive and (b, d) negative phases of (a, b) PC1 and (c, d) PC2 of the Sichuan Basin’ s summer rainfall pattern (red arrow represent output and blue arrow means input)

    图  7  PC1回归1979~2018年前期(a–h)1~8月海温异常(绝对值大于0.304、0.393的填色区域分别表示置信水平达到95%和99%)

    Figure  7.  SSTA (units: °C) from January to August regressed on PC1 for 1979 to 2018 (Shaded areas with absolute values greater than 0.304 and 0.393 represent the 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively)

    图  8  PC1与海温指数的时间超前滞后相关(0表示同期,负值表示超前月数,正值表示滞后月数)

    Figure  8.  Time lead/lag correlation between PC1 and SST indexes (0 represents the same period, negative values represent the number of lead months, and positive values represent the number of lag months

    图  9  PC2回归1979~2018年前期(a–h)1~8月海温异常(绝对值大于0.304、0.393的填色区域分别表示置信水平达到95%和99%)

    Figure  9.  SSTA (units: °C) from January to August regressed on PC2 for 1979 to 2018 (Shaded areas with absolute values greater than 0.304 and 0.393 represent the 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively)

    图  10  PC2高低值年合成的前期春季海冰密集度差值场(黑色点表示差值场的置信水平达到90%)

    Figure  10.  Composite differences in Arctic sea ice concentrations in the preceding spring between high and low PC2 years (black dots represent the 90% confidence level)

    表  1  3条水汽通道与四川盆地夏季降水PC1/PC2的相关系数

    Table  1.   Correlation coefficient between water vapor transportation channels and PC1/PC2 of summer rainfall over Sichuan Basin

    水汽通道
    孟加拉湾通道南海通道太平洋通道
    PC10.27*0.66**0.45**
    PC2−0.12−0.20−0.26*
    注:*、**分别表示置信水平达到90%、99%。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  四川盆地夏季降水主模态典型异常年的ENSO特征

    Table  2.   Sea surface temperature anomaly tendency of the Sichuan Basin’ s main summer rainfall modes

    全区一致偏多年ENSO特征全区一致偏少年ENSO特征西多东少年ENSO特征东多西少年ENSO特征
    1980年El Niño衰减1990年中性年1981年中性年1982年El Niño发展
    1983年El Niño衰减1994年中性年1988年El Niño衰减—La Niña发展1986年El Niño发展
    1984年La Niña衰减1997年El Niño发展1992年El Niño衰减2002年El Niño发展
    1987年El Niño持续2001年La Niña衰减2010年El Niño衰减—La Niña发展2008年La Niña衰减
    1998年El Niño衰减2004年中性—El Niño发展2013年中性年2015年El Niño发展
    2007年El Niño衰减—La Niña衰减2006年La Niña衰减2018年La Niña衰减2016年El Niño衰减
    2011年La Niña衰减
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-09-02
  • 录用日期:  2022-01-27
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-02-28
  • 刊出日期:  2022-11-24

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