Reexamine the Tibetan Plateau Vortices Sources Based on Multiple Resource Datasets
-
摘要: 高原低涡是活跃于青藏高原近地面层的中尺度天气系统,是高原最重要的降水天气系统,少部分的低涡移出高原后在下游地区常带来灾害性的强降水天气。“青藏高原低涡切变线年鉴”(简称年鉴)是高原低涡研究的主要参考资料之一,但受到高原西部地区探空观测站点分布不足的影响,年鉴难以监测发源于高原西部的低涡。为了进一步提高对高原低涡源地的科学认识,本研究首先分析了影响高原低涡发生发展的环流在高原东西部地区的差异,结果表明高原西部地区的环流背景更有利于高原低涡形成。再利用2005~2019年暖季(5~9月)风云-2地球静止卫星观测的云迹风和黑体亮温资料对年鉴低涡进行重分析,表明年鉴中大部分的高原低涡可以溯源至高原西部地区。最后分析了在高原西部的3个新探空站(狮泉河、改则和申扎)建立前后年鉴中高原低涡源地的差异,发现增加的探空资料使位于高原西部的低涡源地大幅度增加。综合多源资料的结果,我们认为大多数高原低涡起源于高原西部,年鉴的结论可能源于高原西部的探空站不足的影响。本研究确认了再分析资料在高原低涡研究中的可用性和有效性,强调了卫星观测资料在高原天气系统研究中的重要性和进一步增强高原地区气象观测的迫切性。Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau vortex (TPV) is a kind of mesoscale weather system that exists near the surface of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). TPVs are the major precipitation-producing weather system over the TP, and a small portion of the TPVs move off the TP, causing catastrophic heavy rainfall in the downstream areas of the TP. The yearbook of the TPVs edited by the Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology offers important references in the field of TPVs research. The TPV source of the yearbook is dominantly located over the eastern TP, but most TPVs obtained via the reanalysis are generated over the western TP. It is the most significant difference between the TPVs derived from the yearbook and the reanalysis. To clarify the source of TPVs, we first examine the differences in the general circulation between the eastern and western regions of the TP that affect the development of the TPVs and find that the large-scale circulation in the western TP is more favorable to the generation of TPVs. Second, the atmospheric moving vector and blackbody bright temperature derived from the FY-2 geostationary satellites during 2005–2019 are used to reexamine the TPV sources from the yearbook, showing that most TPVs are generated from the western TP. Finally, we checked the difference in the TPV source via the yearbook between the former and later periods of the construction of the three new sounding stations over the western TP, which are Shiquanhe, Gaize, and Shenzha. It shows that the new data significantly increases the proportion of TPVs generated from the western TP. Combining the results obtained from multiple sources, we conclude that most TPVs originate in the western part of the TP, and the conclusion of the yearbook may be misguided because of the insufficient soundings in the western part of the TP. This study confirms the availability and reliability of reanalysis data in the study of TPVs and emphasizes the importance of satellite-based observations in the study of weather systems and the urgency of further enhancing observations over the TP.
-
图 1 青藏高原及其周边地区的海拔高度(阴影)和气象探空站点分布,其中蓝色实心方块为2015年之后新增加的探空站,黑色粗线为青藏高原3000 m廓线
Figure 1. Topography (shading) and the meteorological sounding stations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surrounding areas. Blue solid cubes indicates the meteorological sounding stations constructed after 2015, and the black thick line denotes the boundary of the TP at 3000 m
图 2 高原低涡(a)年鉴和(b)ERA5、(c)CFSR、(d)MERRA2、(e)JRA55、(f)CRA40再分析资料的客观识别结果2001~2019年年平均高原低涡源地空间分布。黑色虚线以90°E将高原分为东、西两部分,图中虚线两侧的数字分别给出了高原低涡生成于高原东西部的比例。蓝色方框分别给出了高原东部和西部高原低涡的主要生成区域
Figure 2. Spatial distribution of the TPV sources during 2001–2019 derived from (a) the yearbook and the reanalysis datasets of (b) ERA5, (c) CFSR, (d) MERRA2, (e) JRA55, and (f) CRA40. The black dashed line divides the TP into the eastern and western parts by 90°E, and the number denotes the proportion of TPVs generated from the western and eastern TP. The blue rectangle indicates the dominant region of the TPV sources
图 3 基于ERA5的再分析资料计算的2001~2019年5~9月的平均环流物理量的空间分布:(a)500 hPa相对涡度(单位:1.0×10−5 s−1);(b)高原东、西部的平均相对涡度;(c)400 hPa垂直速度(单位:10−1 Pa s−1);(d)高原东、西部的平均垂直速度。蓝色方框分别给出了高原东部和西部的范围,用于计算(b、d)的区域平均,其中90°E上的值不计入计算。(b、d)中圆点表示区域平均值,矩形上下位置表示平均值±标准差,长横线表示中位数,上、下的短横线分别表示95%和5%分位数
Figure 3. Spatial distributions of the large-scale circulation parameters in the warm season (May–September) during 2001–2019 via ERA5: (a) relative vorticity in 500 hPa (units: 1.0×10−5 s−1), (b) average relative vorticity over the eastern and western TP, (c) vertical velocity in 400 hPa (units: 10−1 Pa s−1), and (d) average velocity over the eastern and western TP. The blue rectangles denote the western and eastern TP to calculate the regional mean in panels (b, d). In panels (b, d), the dot, rectangle, and horizontal line denote the average value, the median, and the range of standard deviation, and the top and bottom error bars indicate the 95% and 5% percentiles, respectively
图 4 基于ERA5的再分析资料计算的2001~2019年5~9月的平均环流物理量的空间分布:(a)地面感热(单位:W m−2);(b)高原东、西部的平均地面感热;(c)500 hPa散度(单位:1.0×10−6 s−1);(d)高原东、西部的平均500 hPa散度。蓝色方框分别给出了高原东部和西部的范围,用于计算(b、d)的区域平均,其中90°E上的值不计入计算。(b、d)中圆点表示区域平均值,矩形上下位置表示平均值±标准差,长横线表示中位数,上、下的短横线分别表示95%和5%分位数
Figure 4. Spatial distributions of the large-scale circulation parameters in the warm season (May–September) during 2001–2019 via ERA5: (a) Sensible heat flux (units: W m−2); (b) average sensible heat flux over the eastern and western TP; (c) divergence in 500 hPa (units: 1.0×10−6 s−1); (d) average divergence in 500 hPa over the eastern and western TP. The blue rectangles denote the western and eastern TP to calculate the regional mean in panels (b, d). In panels (b, d), the dot, rectangle, and horizontal line denote the average value, the median, and the range of standard deviation, and the top and bottom error bars indicate the 95% and 5% percentiles, respectively
图 5 由ERA5月平均数据2001~2019年计算的高原低涡生成指数:(a)GTPV指数;(b)GQian指数。图中百分数字为低涡生成指数计算的90°E以东和以西区域生成的低涡百分比,在计算区域的低涡百分比时将GQian小于0的区域取为0
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of the TPV generation index during 2001−2019 via ERA5 with (a) GTPV and (b) GQian. The proportion of TPVs generated in the western and eastern TP are shown in the panels, and it has been calculated as 0 in the region with negative GQian
图 7 对流层中层云迹风在2005~2019年5~9月的平均有效观测时次比例:(a)IR1通道;(b)IR3通道。当每个1°×1°网格至少有一个云迹风矢量时即认为该时次在该网格为一个有效观测
Figure 7. Data available ratio of the atmospheric motion vector (AMV) in the mid-troposphere during the warm season of 2005–2019 derived from (a) the IR1 channel and (b) the IR3 channel. It is defined as a valid observation with at least one AMV in each grid of 1°×1°
图 10 2018年8月(a)8日08:00和(b)10日08:00高原及其邻近地区高空观测的500 hPa风场。其中■为高原西部新增的气象探空站;△、●分别为不考虑和考虑新增气象探空站识别得到的低涡中心
Figure 10. Wind vectors in 500 hPa and the identification of TPVs at (a) 0800 BJT (Beijing time) on August 8, 2018, and (b) 0800 BJT on August 10, 2018. ■ denotes the new meteorological sounding stations over the western TP, △ and ● indicate the TPV center identified without and with the new meteorological sounding stations, respectively
图 12 2017年5月15~17日的高原低涡(a)年鉴(编号:C1716)中的活动路径以及(b)ERA5、(c)CFSR、(d)MERRA2、(e)JRA55、(f)CRA40再分析资料对应的低涡路径。图中□表示低涡源地,等值线为再分析资料在2017年5月16日08:00的500 hPa高度场,●表示2017年5月16日08:00的低涡位置
Figure 12. TPV trajectory derived from (a) the yearbook (identified as C1716) and the reanalysis datasets of (b) ERA5, (c) CFSR, (d) MERRA2, (e) JRA55, and (f) CRA40 from May 15 to May 17, 2017. Contours shows the geopotential height in 500 hPa at 0800 BJT on May 16, 2017, □ denotes the TPV source, and ● denotes the TPV at 0800 BST (Beijing Standard Time) on May 16, 2017
表 1 风云-2系列静止气象卫星数据
Table 1. Basic information about the FY-2 stationary meteorological satellite datasets
卫星编号 时段 空间分辨率(经度×纬度) 云迹风时间分辨率 TBB时间分辨率 FY-2C 2005年6月至2009年12月 0.1°×0.1° 6 h 1 h FY-2D 2007年2月至2015年5月 0.1°×0.1° 6 h 1 h FY-2E 2010年1月至2019年1月 0.1°×0.1° 6 h 1 h FY-2F 2012年11月至2019年12月 0.1°×0.1° 6 h 1 h FY-2G 2015年6月至2019.12月 0.1°×0.1° 3 h 1 h FY-2H 2018年9月至2019.12月 0.1°×0.1° 0.5 h 1 h 表 2 高原低涡年鉴和基于再分析分析及其获取的高原低涡概况
Table 2. Basic information about the Tibetan Plateau vortices derived from the yearbook and the reanalysis datasets
数据 单位 国家/地区 空间分辨率
(经度×纬度)资料年限 2001~2019年均
高原低涡个数2001~2019年暖季
平均高原低涡个数年鉴 IPM 中国 — 2001~2019 45.5 31.7 ERA5 ECMWF 欧洲 0.25°×0.25° 1950~2020 68.7 53.3 CFSR NCEP 美国 0.5°×0.5° 1979~2020 69.1 53.1 MERRA2 NASA 美国 0.5°×0.625° 1980~2020 65.0 51.3 JRA55 JMA 日本 1.25°×1.25° 1958~2020 64.7 51.1 CRA40 CMA 中国 0.5°×0.5° 1979~2020 67.6 52.8 表 3 卫星遥感资料对高原低涡年鉴2005~2019年5~9月涡源的校正结果
Table 3. Modulation of TPV source by the satellite datasets in the warm season during 2005–2019
个数 比例 没有有效的云迹风数据 131 25.7% 年鉴的低涡在卫星观测未发现 88 17.3% 校正的低涡比年鉴的偏西 263 51.7% 校正的低涡比年鉴的偏东 27 5.3% 表 4 2001~2019年暖季(5~9月)生成于高原西部的高原低涡(90ºE以西)相对比例
Table 4. Proportion of TPVs generated from the western TP in the warm season during 2001–2019, before and after the construction of the new meteorological sounding stations
资料 2001~2014年 2015~2019年 年鉴 2.5% 17.5% ERA5 78.6% 79.7% CFSR 76.8% 75.9% MERRA2 68.9% 69.6% JRA55 70.8% 69.9% CRA40 74.0% 73.1% -
[1] Bao X H, Zhang F Q. 2013. Evaluation of NCEP–CFSR, NCEP–NCAR, ERA–Interim, and ERA-40 reanalysis datasets against independent sounding observations over the Tibetan Plateau [J]. J. Climate, 26(1): 206−214. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00056.1 [2] 陈伯民, 钱正安, 张立盛. 1996. 夏季青藏高原低涡形成和发展的数值模拟 [J]. 大气科学, 20(4): 491−502. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1996.04.14Chen Bomin, Qian Zheng’ an, Zhang Lisheng. 1996. Numerical simulation of the formation and development of vortices over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau in Summer [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (Scientia Atmospherica Sinica) (in Chinese), 20(4): 491−502. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1996.04.14 [3] 陈乾. 1964. 青藏高原地区500 hPa低涡的天气气候分析[Z]. 兰州天动会议技术材料. 兰州, 27–29.Chen Qian. 1964. Synoptic and climatic analysis on the Tibetan Plateau vortices in 500 hPa [Z]. Technical Materials for Lanzhou Weather Dynamics Conference (in Chinese). Lanzhou, 27–29. [4] Curio J, Chen Y R, Schiemann R, et al. 2018. Comparison of a manual and an automated tracking method for Tibetan Plateau vortices [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35(8): 965−980. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7278-4 [5] Curio J, Schiemannm R, Hodges K I, et al. 2019. Climatology of Tibetan Plateau vortices in reanalysis data and a high–resolution global climate model [J]. J. Climate, 32(6): 1933−1950. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0021.1 [6] Dell’Osso L, Chen S J. 1986. Numerical experiments on the genesis of vortices over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau [J]. Tellus A, 38(3): 236−250. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v38i3.11715 [7] Dimri A P, Niyogi D, Barros A P, et al. 2015. Western disturbances: A review [J]. Rev. Geophys., 53(2): 225−246. doi: 10.1002/2014RG000460 [8] Ditchek S D, Boos W R, Camargo S J, et al. 2016. A genesis index for monsoon disturbances [J]. J. Climate, 29(14): 5189−5203. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0704.1 [9] Emanuel K A, Nolan D S. 2004. Tropical cyclone activity and global climate [C]//Proceedings of the 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Miami, FL: American Meteorological Society, 240–241. [10] Feng X Y, Liu C H, Rasmussen R, et al. 2014. A 10-yr climatology of Tibetan Plateau vortices with NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis [J]. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53(1): 34−46. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-014.1 [11] Gelaro R, McGarty W, Suárez M J, et al. 2017. The Modern-Era retrospective analysis for research and applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) [J]. J. Climate, 30(14): 5419−5454. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1 [12] Gray W M. 1977. Tropical cyclone genesis in the western north Pacific [J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 55(5): 465−482. doi: 10.2151/jmsj1965.55.5_465 [13] 关良, 李栋梁. 2019. 青藏高原低涡的客观识别及其活动特征 [J]. 高原气象, 38(1): 55−65. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00067Guan Liang, Li Dongliang. 2019. Objective identifying and activity characteristics of Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau vortex [J]. Plateau Meteor. (in Chinese), 38(1): 55−65. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00067 [14] Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, et al. 2020. The ERA5 global reanalysis [J]. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146(730): 1999−2049. doi: 10.1002/qj.3803 [15] Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, et al. 2015. The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics [J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93(1): 5−48. doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2015-001 [16] 李国平, 徐琪. 2005. 边界层动力“抽吸泵”对青藏高原低涡的作用 [J]. 大气科学, 29(6): 965−972. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.06.12Li Guoping, Xu Qi. 2005. Effect of dynamic pumping in the boundary layer on the Tibetan Plateau vortices [J]. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. (in Chinese), 29(6): 965−972. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.06.12 [17] 李国平, 赵邦杰, 杨锦青. 2002. 地面感热对青藏高原低涡流场结构及发展的作用 [J]. 大气科学, 26(4): 519−525. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2002.04.09Li Guoping, Zhao Bangjie, Yang Jinqing. 2002. A dynamical study of the role of surface sensible heating in the structure and intensification of the Tibetan Plateau vortices [J]. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. (in Chinese), 26(4): 519−525. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2002.04.09 [18] 李国平, 赵福虎, 黄楚惠, 等. 2014. 基于NCEP资料的近30年夏季青藏高原低涡的气候特征 [J]. 大气科学, 38(4): 756−769. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13235Li Guoping, Zhao Fuhu, Huang Chuhui, et al. 2014. Analysis of 30-year climatology of the Tibetan Plateau vortex in summer with NCEP reanalysis data [J]. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. (in Chinese), 38(4): 756−769. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13235 [19] Li L, Zhang R H, Wu P L. 2020a. Evaluation of NCEP–FNL and ERA–interim data sets in detecting Tibetan Plateau vortices in May–August of 2000–2015 [J]. Earth Space Sci., 7(3): e2019EA000907. doi: 10.1029/2019EA000907 [20] Li L, Zhang R H, Wen M, et al. 2014. Effect of the atmospheric heat source on the development and eastward movement of the Tibetan Plateau vortices [J]. Tellus A, 66(1): 24451. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.24451 [21] Li L, Zhang R H, Wu P L, et al. 2020b. Characteristics of convections associated with the Tibetan Plateau vortices based on geostationary satellite data [J]. Int. J. Climatol., 40(11): 4876−4887. doi: 10.1002/joc.6494 [22] Li L, Zhu C W, Zhang R H, et al. 2021. Roles of the Tibetan Plateau vortices in the record Meiyu rainfall in 2020 [J]. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 22(3): e1017. doi: 10.1002/asl.1017 [23] 李跃清. 2022. 青藏高原热源与天气系统影响灾害性天气的研究进展 [J]. 高原山地气象研究, 42(3): 1−12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.03.001Li Yueqing. 2022. Progress of research on the disaster weather affected by the heat source and the weather systems over the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Plateau Mount. Meteor. Res. (in Chinese), 42(3): 1−12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.03.001 [24] 林志强. 2015. 1979–2013年ERA–Interim资料的青藏高原低涡活动特征分析 [J]. 气象学报, 73(5): 925−939. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2015.066Lin Zhiqiang. 2015. An objective analysis of the Tibetan Plateau vortexes based on the ERA–interim reanalysis data: 1979–2013 [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica (in Chinese), 73(5): 925−939. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2015.066 [25] 林志强. 2021. 青藏高原低涡年际年代际变化特征、机理及其未来预估[D]. 南京大学博士学位论文, 71–90Lin Zhiqiang. 2021. The interannual and interdecadal characteristics and mechaganisms of Tibetan Plateau vortex and the future projections [D]. Ph. D. dissertation (in Chinese), Nanjing University, 71–90. doi:10.27235/d.cnki.gnjiu.2021.000189 [26] 林志强, 郭维栋. 2022. 多再分析数据得到的高原低涡数据集(1979–2021) [Z]. 国家青藏高原科学数据中心.Lin Zhiqiang, Guo Weidong. 2022. Database of the Tibetan Plateau vortex derived from multiple reanalysis (1979–2021) [Z]. National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (in Chinese). doi:10.11888/Atmos.tpdc.272374 [27] 林志强, 周振波, 假拉. 2013. 高原低涡客观识别方法及其初步应用 [J]. 高原气象, 32(6): 1580−1588. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00153Lin Zhiqiang, Zhou Zhenbo, Jia La. 2013. Objective identifying method of Qinghai–Xizang Plateau vortex using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset [J]. Plateau Meteor. (in Chinese), 32(6): 1580−1588. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00153 [28] Lin Z Q, Guo W D, Jia L, et al. 2020. Climatology of Tibetan Plateau vortices derived from multiple reanalysis datasets [J]. Climate Dyn., 55(7): 2237−2252. doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05380-6 [29] Lin Z Q, Guo W D, Yao X P, et al. 2021b. Tibetan Plateau vortex-associated precipitation and its link with the Tibetan Plateau heating anomaly [J]. Int. J. Climatol., 41(14): 6300−6313. doi: 10.1002/joc.7195 [30] Lin Z Q, Guo W D, Ge J, et al. 2021a. Increased Tibetan Plateau vortex activities under 2 ºC warming compared to 1.5 ºC warming: NCAR CESM low-warming experiments [J]. Adv. Climate Chang. Res., 12(3): 322−332. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.05.009 [31] 刘云丰, 李国平. 2016. 夏季高原大气热源的气候特征以及与高原低涡生成的关系 [J]. 大气科学, 40(4): 864−876. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15184Liu Yunfeng, Li Guoping. 2016. Climatic characteristics of atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and its possible relationship with the generation of the Tibetan Plateau vortex in the summer [J]. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. (in Chinese), 40(4): 864−876. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15184 [32] 罗四维. 1992. 青藏高原及其邻近地区几类天气系统的研究[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 7–55Luo Siwei. 1992. Study on Some Kinds of Weather Systems over and Around the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 7–55. [33] 马婷, 刘屹岷, 吴国雄, 等. 2020. 青藏高原低涡形成、发展和东移影响下游暴雨天气个例的位涡分析 [J]. 大气科学, 44(3): 472−486. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1904.18275Ma Ting, Liu Yimin, Wu Guoxiong, et al. 2020. Effect of potential vorticity on the formation, development, and eastward movement of a Tibetan Plateau vortex and its influence on downstream precipitation [J]. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. (in Chinese), 44(3): 472−486. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1904.18275 [34] Mallick S, Jones T A. 2020. Assimilation of GOES-16 satellite derived winds into the warn-on-forecast system [J]. Atmos. Res., 245: 105131. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105131 [35] McCarty W, Carvalho D, Moradi I, et al. 2021. Observing system simulation experiments investigating atmospheric motion vectors and radiances from a constellation of 4–5-μm Infrared Sounders [J]. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 38(2): 331−347. doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0109.1 [36] Midhuna T M, Kumar P, Dimri A P. 2020. A new western disturbance index for the Indian winter monsoon [J]. J. Earth Syst. Sci., 129(1): 59. doi: 10.1007/s12040-019-1324-1 [37] Neu U, Akperov M G, Bellenbaum N, et al. 2013. IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms [J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94(4): 529−547. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1 [38] 钱正安, 单扶民, 吕君宁, 等. 1984.1979年夏季青藏高原低涡的统计分析及低涡产生的气候因子探讨[C]//青藏高原气象科学试验文集(二). 北京: 科学出版社, 182–194Qian Zheng’ an, Shan Fumin, Lv Junning, et al. 1984. The discuss on climate factors and statistic analysis of the Tibetan Plateau vortex in 1979 summer [C]//The Tibetan Plateau Meteorological Experiment Corpus II (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 182–194. [39] 青藏高原气象科学研究拉萨会战组. 1981. 夏半年青藏高原500毫巴低涡切变线的研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 218–278Lhasa Meeting Group of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Meteorological Research. 1981. Study on the Tibetan Plateau Vortices and Shearlines of 500hPa in Boreal Summer (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 218–278. [40] 任素玲, 蒋建莹, 许健民. 2014. 卫星水汽通道探测所揭示的高空流场在南亚高压东侧强降水分析中的应用 [J]. 气象, 40(6): 697−705. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.06.006Ren Suling, Jiang Jianying, Xu Jianmin. 2014. Application of upper troposphere circulation revealed by the satellite IR3 channel to heavy rainfall events analysis in the east side of South Asia High [J]. Meteor. Mon. (in Chinese), 40(6): 697−705. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.06.006 [41] 任素玲, 方翔, 卢乃锰, 等. 2019. 基于气象卫星的青藏高原低涡识别 [J]. 应用气象学报, 30(3): 345−359. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190308Ren Suling, Fang Xiang, Lu Naimeng, et al. 2019. Recognition method of the Tibetan Plateau vortex based on meteorological satellite data [J]. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. (in Chinese), 30(3): 345−359. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190308 [42] Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan H L, et al. 2010. The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis [J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91(8): 1015−1058. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1 [43] Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X R, et al. 2014. The NCEP climate forecast system version 2 [J]. J. Climate, 27(6): 2185−2208. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1 [44] Shen R, Reiter E R, Bresch J F. 1986a. Numerical simulation of the development of vortices over the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibet) Plateau [J]. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 35(1–2): 70–95. doi:10.1007/BF01029526 [45] Shen R J, Reiter E R, Bresch J F. 1986b. Some aspects of the effects of sensible heating on the development of summer weather systems over the Tibetan Plateau [J]. J. Atmos. Sci., 43(20): 2241−2260. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1986)0432.0.CO;2 [46] Shou Y X, Lu F, Liu H, et al. 2019. Satellite-based observational study of the Tibetan Plateau vortex: Features of deep convective cloud tops [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36(2): 189−205. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8049-y [47] Simmonds I, Burke C, Keay K. 2008. Arctic climate change as manifest in cyclone behavior [J]. J. Climate, 21(22): 5777−5796. doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2366.1 [48] Sinclair M R. 1994. An objective cyclone climatology for the Southern Hemisphere [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122(10): 2239−2256. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<2239:AOCCFT>2.0.CO;2 [49] Tao S Y, Ding Y H, 1981. Observational evidence of the influence of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau on the occurrence of heavyrain and severe convective storms in China [J]. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 62: 23−30. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1981)062<0023:OEOTIO>2.0.CO;2 [50] 田珊儒, 段安民, 王子谦, 等. 2015. 地面加热与高原低涡和对流系统相互作用的一次个例研究 [J]. 大气科学, 39(1): 125−136. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13311Tian Shanru, Duan Anmin, Wang Ziqian, et al. 2015. Interaction of surface heating, the Tibetan Plateau vortex, and a convective system: A case study [J]. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. (in Chinese), 39(1): 125−136. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13311 [51] Tippett M K, Camargo S J, Sobel A H. 2011. A Poisson regression index for tropical cyclone genesis and the role of large–scale vorticity in genesis [J]. J. Climate, 24(9): 2335−2357. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3811.1 [52] Tippett M K, Sobel A H, Camargo S J. 2012. Association of U. S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39(2): L02801. doi: 10.1029/2011GL050368 [53] Tippett M K, Sobel A H, Camargo S J, et al. 2014. An empirical relation between U. S. tornado activity and monthly environmental parameters [J]. J. Climate, 27(8): 2983−2999. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00345.1 [54] Wang B. 1987. The development mechanism for Tibetan Plateau warm vortices [J]. J. Atmos. Sci., 44(20): 2978−2994. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<2978:TDMFTP>2.0.CO;2 [55] Wang B, Orlanski I. 1987. Study of a heavy rain vortex formed over the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115(7): 1370−1393. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1370:SOAHRV>2.0.CO;2 [56] 王旻燕, 姚爽, 姜立鹏, 等. 2018. 我国全球大气再分析(CRA-40)卫星遥感资料的收集和预处理 [J]. 气象科技进展, 8(1): 158−163. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2018.01.021Wang Minyan, Yao Shuang, Jiang Lipeng, et al. 2018. Collection and pre-processing of satellite remote sensing data in CRA-40 (CMA’s Global Atmospheric ReAnalysis) [J]. Adv. Meteor. Sci. Technol. (in Chinese), 8(1): 158−163. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2018.01.021 [57] 王鑫, 李跃清, 郁淑华, 等. 2009. 青藏高原低涡活动的统计研究 [J]. 高原气象, 28(1): 64−71.Wang Xin, Li Yueqing, Yu Shuhua, et al. 2009. Statistical study on the plateau low vortex activities [J]. Plateau Meteor. (in Chinese), 28(1): 64−71. [58] Wu D, Zhang F M, Wang C H. 2018. Impacts of diabatic heating on the genesis and development of an inner Tibetan Plateau vortex [J]. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 123(20): 11691−11704. doi: 10.1029/2018JD029240 [59] 吴永森. 1964. 高原夏季500hPa低涡的初步研究[C]//青海气象论文集(二). 西宁: 青海人民出版社, 18–19.Wu Yongsen. 1964. A preliminary study of the Tibetan Plateau vortex in summer[C]//Proceedings of Qinghai Meteorology (II) (in Chinese). Xining: Qinghai People’s Publishing House, 18–19. [60] 许健民, 张其松. 2006. 卫星风推导和应用综述 [J]. 应用气象学报, 17(5): 574−582. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2006.05.007Xu Jianmin, Zhang Qisong. 2006. Status review on atmospheric motion vectors–derivation and application [J]. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. (in Chinese), 17(5): 574−582. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2006.05.007 [61] 许健民, 张其松, 方翔. 1997. 用红外和水汽两个通道的卫星测值指定云迹风的高度 [J]. 气象学报, 55(4): 408−417. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1997.041Xu Jianmin, Zhang Qisong, Fang Xiang. 1997. Height assignment of cloud motion winds with infrared and water vapour channels [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica (in Chinese), 55(4): 408−417. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1997.041 [62] 许威杰, 张耀存. 2017. 凝结潜热加热与对流反馈对一次高原低涡过程影响的数值模拟 [J]. 高原气象, 36(3): 763−775. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00061Xu Weijie, Zhang Yaocun. 2017. Numerical study on the feedback between latent heating and convection in a Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau vortex [J]. Plateau Meteor. (in Chinese), 36(3): 763−775. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00061 [63] 叶笃正, 高由禧. 1979. 青藏高原气象学[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 122–126Ye Duzheng, Gao Youxi. 1979. The Tibetan Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 122–126. [64] 郁淑华. 2002. 高原低涡东移过程的水汽图像 [J]. 高原气象, 21(2): 199−204. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2002.02.013Yu Shuhua. 2002. Water vapor imagery of vortex miving process over Qinghai–Xizang Plateau [J]. Plateau Meteor. (in Chinese), 21(2): 199−204. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2002.02.013 [65] 郁淑华, 高文良. 2006. 高原低涡移出高原的观测事实分析 [J]. 气象学报, 64(3): 392−399. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2006.03.014Yu Shuhua, Gao Wenliang. 2006. Observational analysis on the movement of vortices before/after moving out the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica (in Chinese), 64(3): 392−399. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2006.03.014 [66] 郁淑华, 高文良, 彭骏. 2012. 青藏高原低涡活动对降水影响的统计分析 [J]. 高原气象, 31(3): 592–604.Yu Shuhua, Gao Wenliang, Peng Jun. 2012. Statistical analysis on influence of Qinghai–Xizang Plateau vortex activity on precipitation in China [J]. Plateau Meteor. (in Chinese), 31(3): 592–602. [67] 张博, 李国平. 2017. 基于CFSR资料的青藏高原低涡客观识别技术及应用[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 53(1): 106–111, 118.Zhang Bo, Li Guoping. 2017. An objective identification of the Tibetan Plateau vortex based on climate forecast system reanalysis data[J]. J. Lanzhou Univ. (Nat. Sci.) (in Chinese), 53(1): 106–111, 118. doi:10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2017.01.016 [68] 章基嘉, 朱抱真, 朱福康, 等. 1988. 青藏高原气象学进展[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 168–192Zhang Jijia, Zhu Baozhen, Zhu Fukang, et al. 1988. Progress of Qinghai–Xizang (Tibet) Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 168–192. [69] 张恬月, 李国平. 2018. 青藏高原夏季地面感热通量与高原低涡生成的可能联系 [J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 12(2): 1−6. doi: 10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2018.02.001Zhang Tianyue, Li Guoping. 2018. Temporal-spatial distribution of surface sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau in summer and its possible correlation with the formation of Tibetan Plateau vortex [J]. Desert Oasis Meteor. (in Chinese), 12(2): 1−6. doi: 10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2018.02.001 [70] 郑永骏, 吴国雄, 刘屹岷. 2013: 涡旋发展和移动的动力和热力问题IPV-Q观点[J]. 气象学报, 71(2): 185−197.Zheng Yongjun, Wu Guoxiong, Liu Yimin. 2013. Dynamical and thermal problems in vortex development and movement. Part I: A PV-Q view [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, (in Chinese), 71(2): 185−197. doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.018 -