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江西南昌“3·31”极端大风成因分析

Analysis of the causes of the Extreme Wind Disaster in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, on March 31, 2024

  • 摘要: 2024年3月31日凌晨,江西省南昌市出现极端对流性强风天气,发生某高楼三位人员坠亡事件。本研究主要基于南昌SA型双偏振多普勒天气雷达及地面加密观测,分析了高楼人员坠亡地(即事发楼栋)附近的风暴精细结构。结果显示,在事发时段,波型线状回波中段的弓形回波北端出现了书挡涡旋(bookend vortex),尺度和强度与强中气旋相当。书挡涡旋从事发楼栋上空经过,内部可进一步识别出尺度更小的龙卷涡旋特征(Tornado Vortex Signature,简称TVS)和龙卷残片特征(Tornado Debris Signature,简称TDS),TVS径向速度差超过40 m s−1。基于TVS和TDS分析所得疑似龙卷路径进行灾情调查,结果显示多处具有龙卷灾损特征,包括气旋性旋转的强风、辐合风和树剥皮等,且有石桥被完全吹倒。综上,可以确定事发楼栋附近出现了EF2级左右的龙卷,高楼人员坠亡极有可能是由龙卷引发的。本次过程特殊之处在于,龙卷相关涡旋包括书挡涡旋及其内部镶嵌的位于阵风锋前沿的小涡旋,二者几乎同时出现和增强。基于观测的分析表明,龙卷相关涡旋主要由水平涡度扭转形成,而水平涡度与未及地后侧入流急流下方的低层强垂直切变和阵风锋相关的斜压涡度有关。

     

    Abstract: An extreme wind disaster occurred in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, in the early morning of March 31, 2024, which caused the fall of three residents from a high-rise building. The fine structure of the severe storm near the accident building was investigated, primarily based on SA dual-polarization Doppler weather radar observations from Nanchang and intensive surface observations. The results revealed that a bookend vortex was embedded in the northern end of a bow echo of a quasi-linear convective system around the time of the accident, with its horizontal scale and vertical vorticity comparable with those of a strong mesocyclone. Tornado vortex signatures (TVS) with tornado debris signatures (TDS) on a smaller scale were identified within the bookend vortex, which passed over the accident building. The radial velocity difference of TVS exceeded 40 m·s−1. Damage surveys conducted along the tornado path identified by TVS and TDS revealed multiple tornadic damages, including strong cyclonic rotational winds, localized convergent rotational winds, debarked trees, and completely collapsed stone bridges. This indicated that an EF2 tornado occurred very close to the accident building, which was most likely responsible for the fatal fall. Notably, the tornado-related vortices comprise a bookend vortex and several leading-edge misocyclones embedded within it, which emerged and intensified almost simultaneously during the wind disaster. The observational study on the formation mechanisms of tornado-related vortices indicated that they resulted from the tilting of the horizontal vorticity, which is associated with the strong low-level vertical shear of the elevated rear-inflow jet and baroclinic vorticity related to the gust front.

     

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