Numerical simulation experiments of a thunderstorm process based on a high\|resolution mesoscale model

How far will the thunderstorm numerical forecast be used routinely? To answer this question, a three-dimensional thunderstorm electrification and lightning model coupled with a high-resolution mesoscale model is used to simulate a thunderstorm process occurring in Beijing. In this paper, the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolutions of kinematics, microphysics and electrification, as well as the probable interaction between them are analyzed. Results show that a thunderstorm can be triggered without adding an artificial perturbation cell, in which the initial conditions are provided by the high-resolution mesoscale model. The meteorological information from the mesoscale model includes horizontal nonhomogenous and vertical nonhydrostatic information and intense convective instability can accelerate the thunderstorm development violently. The simulated electrical field, cloud microphysics field and background fields are reasonable, and the electrical structure and its spatial-temporal evolvement are more complex, which is closer to the real character of thunderstorm. At the same time, the coupling mesoscale weather model with the electrical and lightning model can simulate a profuse amount of reasonable cloud flashes and negative (positive) polarity cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes, and also the temporal evolution characteristics of cloud ground flash frequency are basically near to the observations. This indicates that the model has potential in the research and forecast of thunder weather. The case simulation reveals that the temporal evolution trends of flash frequency, the maximum graupel mixing ratio and the maximum positive electric field intensity are very similar.