A Preliminary Study of the Arctic Sea Ice Numerical Forecasting: Coupled Sea Ice－Ocean Modelling Experiments Based on MITgcm

Based on the forcing from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data for the period 1992－2009, the newly developed MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) coupled ice-ocean model shows that the simulated variabilities of the Arctic sea ice extent/area are in good agreement with the observations derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager). On the basis of this, the ability of the MITgcm coupled ice-ocean model in forecasting the Arctic sea ice is investigated. Two cases are selected, one is during the melting period and the other is during the freezing period in 2009. Four forecasting experiments are conducted using atmospheric forcing from the NCEP reanalysis data and GFS (Global Forecast System), which use partly and entirely initialized SSM/I sea ice concentrations..The preliminary results show that the model does have the Arctic sea ice forecast capability. It demonstrates that the sea ice forecast is not very sensitive to different atmospheric forcings, whereas initialization using SSM/I sea ice concentrations can much improve the sea ice forecast. 