Modeling Future Changes of the Dust Emission Flux over Northern China

This paper employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the online coupled Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study future changes in dust emission in northern China. To improve the accuracy of prediction results, this study comprehensively considers the influence of factors such as aerosols, greenhouse gases, and vegetation fraction on the weather, climate, and dust emission processes. The prediction shows that from 2016 to 2029, the amount of dust emission in the northwestern dust source region is higher than that in the northern dust source region. In addition, differences in topography and climate lead to differences in dust emission processes and their seasonal variations in the two regions. Seasonal mean dust emission fluxes in the northwestern and northern dust source regions from 2016 to 2029 show general decreasing trends, whereas some seasons show increasing trends. The dust emission flux in the northwestern dust region shows a weak increasing trend in spring and decreasing trends in summer, autumn, and winter. The dust emission flux in the northern dust source region shows decreasing trends in spring, summer, and winter and a weak increasing trend in autumn. Variation trends of dust emission fluxes in the two regions are dominated by the near-surface wind speed, whereas the vegetation fraction, precipitation, and surface temperature have important effects on the interannual fluctuation of dust emission fluxes.