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2004 Vol. 21, No. 3

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Interdecadal Variability of Temperature and Precipitation in China since 1880
WANG Shaowu, ZHU Jinhong, CAI Jingning
2004, 21(3): 307-313. doi: 10.1007/BF02915560
Reconstruction of a homogeneous temperature and precipitation series for China is crucial for a proper understanding of climate change over China. The annual mean temperature anomaly series of ten regions are found from 1880 to 2002. Positive anomalies over China during the 1920s and 1940s are noticeable.The linear trend for the period of 1880-2002 is 0.58°C (100a)-1, which is a little less than the global mean (0.60°C (100a)-1). 1998 was the warmest year in China since 1880, which is in agreement with the estimation of the global mean temperature. The mean precipitation on a national scale depends mainly on the precipitation over East China. Variations of precipitation in West China show some characteristics which are independent of those in the east. However, the 1920s was the driest decade not only for the east, but also for eastern West China during the last 120 years. The most severe drought on a national scale occurred in 1928. Severe droughts also occurred in 1920, 1922, 1926, and 1929 in North China.It is noticeable that precipitation over East China was generally above normal in the 1950s and 1990s;severe floods along the Yangtze River in 1954, 1991, and 1998 only occurred in these two wet decades.An increasing trend in precipitation variations is observed during the second half of the 20th century in West China, but a similar trend is not found in East China, where the 20- to 40-year periodicities are predominant in the precipitation variations.
A Review of Research on Human Activity Induced Climate Change I. Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols
WANG Mingxing, LIU Qiang, YANG Xin
2004, 21(3): 314-321. doi: 10.1007/BF02915561
Extensive research on the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, carbon cycle modeling, and the characterization of atmospheric aerosols has been carried out in China during the last 10 years or so. This paper presents the major achievements in the fields of emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural lands,carbon cycle modeling, the characterization of Asian mineral dust, source identification of the precursors of the tropospheric ozone, and observations of the concentrations of atmospheric organic compounds.Special, more detailed information on the emissions of methane from rice fields and the physical and chemical characteristics of mineral aerosols are presented.
Progress in the Study on the Formation of the Summertime Subtropical Anticyclone
LIU Yimin, WU Guoxiong
2004, 21(3): 322-342. doi: 10.1007/BF02915562
The studies in China on the formation of the summertime subtropical anticyclone on the climate timescale are reviewed. New insights in resent studies are introduced. It is stressed that either in the free atmosphere or in the planetary boundary, the descending arm of the Hadley cell cannot be considered as a mechanism for the formation of the subtropical anticyclone. Then the theories of thermal adaptation of the atmosphere to external thermal forcing and the potential vorticity forcing are developed to understand the formation of the subtropical anticyclone in the three-dimensional domain. Numerical experiments are designed to verify these theories. Results show that in the boreal summer, the formation of the strong South Asian High in the upper troposphere and the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific in the middle and lower troposphere is, to a great extent, due to the convective latent heating associated with the Asian monsoon, but affected by orography and the surface sensible heating over the continents.On the other hand, the formation of the subtropical anticyclone at the surface over the northern Pacific and in the upper troposphere over North America is mainly due to the strong surface sensible heating over North America, but affected by radiation cooling over the eastern North Pacific. Moreover, in the real atmosphere such individual thermal forcing is well organized. By considering the different diabatic heating in synthesis, a quadruple heating pattern is found over each subtropical continent and its adjacent oceans in summer. A distinct circulation pattern accompanies this heating pattern. The global summer subtropical heating and circulation may be viewed as "mosaics" of such quadruplet heating and circulation patterns respectively. At last, some important issues for further research in understanding and predicting the variations of the subtropical anticyclone are raised.
Overview of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment
DING Yihui, LI Chongyin, LIU Yanju
2004, 21(3): 343-360. doi: 10.1007/BF02915563
The present paper gives an overview of the key project "South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)" operated by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China during the period of 1996-2001. The SCSMEX is a joint atmospheric and oceanic field experiment which aims to better understand the onset, maintenance, and variability of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS). It is a large-scale international effort with many participating countries and regions cooperatively involved in this experiment. With the field observation in May-August 1998, a large amount of meteorological and oceanic data was acquired, which provides excellent datasets for the study of the SCS monsoon and the East Asian monsoon and their interaction with the ocean. The preliminary research achievements are as follows. (1) The earliest onset of the Asian monsoon over the SCS and Indo-China Peninsula has been well documented. From the viewpoint of the synoptic process, its onset is closely related to the early rapid development of a twin cyclone to the east of Sri Lanka. The conceptual model of the SCS monsoon onset in 1998 was put forward. The 50-year time series of the SCS monsoon onset date was also made. (2) Two major modes, namely the 30-60-day and 10-20-day oscillations were ascertained. The influences of the abnormal SCS monsoon on the precipitation over eastern China and its modes were identified. A strong (weak) monsoon over the SCS usually leads to less (more) precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and more (less) precipitation in North China. (3) During the monsoon onset over the SCS, a wide variety of organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) were observed by a Doppler radar array deployed over the northern SCS. The relationship between large-scale circulations and MCSs during the monsoon onset process in 1998 was clearly revealed. It was suggested that there is a kind of positive feedback mechanism between large-scale circulations and MCSs. (4) The SST over the SCS during the early period influences the timing of the monsoon onset date and the monsoon's intensity. During the monsoon onset, the ocean undergoes a process of energy release through air-sea interaction. During the break phase of the SCS monsoon, the ocean demonstrates the process of energy re-accumulation. Obvious differences in the air-sea turbulent flux exchange between the southern and northern parts of the SCS due to different characteristic features of the atmosphere and sea structure were observed in those regions.(5) The verification of impact of intensive observations on the predictive performance is made by the use of regional models. The air-sea coupled regional climate model (CRCM) was also developed under the SCSMEX Project . The simulation of the oceanic circulation in 1998 produced with the model was well compared with the observations.
Advances in Studies of the Middle and Upper Atmosphere and Their Coupling with the Lower Atmosphere
LU Daren, YI Fan, XU Jiyao
2004, 21(3): 361-368. doi: 10.1007/BF02915564
Recent advances in studies of the middle and upper atmosphere and their coupling with the lower atmosphere in China are briefly reviewed. This review emphasizes four aspects: (1) Development of instrumentation for middle and upper atmosphere observation; (2) Analyses and observation of middle and upper atmosphere; (3) Theoretical and modeling studies of planetary wave and gravity wave activities in the middle atmosphere and their relation to lower atmospheric processes; (4) Study on the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere.
The Effects of the Thermal Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Vicinities on Climate Variability in China
QIAN Yongfu, ZHANG Yan, HUANG Yanyan, HUANG Ying, YAO Yonghong
2004, 21(3): 369-381. doi: 10.1007/BF02915565
The evident effects of the thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its vicinities are summarized and discussed in this paper. By the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique and numerical simulations of the effect of the snow depth anomaly over the TP, it is shown that the snow depth anomaly, especially in winter, is one of the factors influencing precipitation in China, and the winter snow anomaly is more important than the spring one. The relations between the sensible heat anomaly over the TP and the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) are studied, too, and two key areas of the sensible heat anomaly over the TP are found. The relationships between the South Asia High (SAH)and the precipitation in the years with typical droughts or floods in the mid to lower valleys of the Yangtze River (MLVYR) and North China are investigated in some detail. It is found that not only the intensity of the SAH over the TP, but also the 100-hPa height in a large area influences the precipitation in the above two regions. The effects of the SAH on the onsets of the tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM) including the SCSSM and the tropical Indian summer monsoon (TISM) are studied as well. It is found that the onset times of both the SCSSM and the TISM are highly dependent upon the latitudinal position of the SAH center.
Retraction:Modeling Marine Stratocumulus with a Detailed Microphysical Scheme
ZHAO Chunsheng, Yutaka ISHIZAKA, WU Guoxiong, WANG Huijun, Da-Lin ZHANG
2004, 21(3): 382-382. doi: 10.1007/BF03342548
Progress of Large-Scale Air-Sea Interaction Studies in China
PU Shuzhen, ZHAO Jinping, YU Weidong, ZHAO Yongping, YANG Bo
2004, 21(3): 383-398. doi: 10.1007/BF02915566
This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.
Review of the Study of Nonlinear Atmospheric Dynamics in China (1999-2002)
DIAO Yina, FENG Guolin, LIU Shida, LIU Shikuo, LUO Dehai, HUANG Sixun, LU Weisong, CHOU Jifan
2004, 21(3): 399-406. doi: 10.1007/BF02915567
Researches on nonlinear atmospheric dynamics in China (1999-2002) are briefly surveyed. This review includes the major achievements in the following branches of nonlinear dynamics: nonlinear stability theory,nonlinear blocking dynamics, 3D spiral structure in the atmosphere, traveling wave solution of the nonlinear evolution equation, numerical predictability in a chaotic system, and global analysis of climate dynamics.Some applications of nonlinear methods such as hierarchy structure of climate and scaling invariance, the spatial-temporal series predictive method, the nonlinear inverse problem, and a new difference scheme with multi-time levels are also introduced.
Recent Advances in Studies of the Interaction between the East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons and ENSO Cycle
HUANG Ronghui, CHEN Wen, YANG Bangliang, ZHANG Renhe
2004, 21(3): 407-424. doi: 10.1007/BF02915568
Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonal wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.
A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China
LI Chongyin, HE Jinhai, ZHU Jinhong
2004, 21(3): 425-436. doi: 10.1007/BF02915569
Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability,the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.
Recent Advances in Predictability Studies in China (1999-2002)
MU Mu, DUAN Wansuo, CHOU Jifan
2004, 21(3): 437-443. doi: 10.1007/BF02915570
Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed,which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealed by NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate,which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition,in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance and the correlation coefficient are calculated to explore the distribution characteristics of the mean-square errors.Finally, the predictability of short-term climate prediction is investigated by using statistical methods or numerical simulation methods. It is demonstrated that the predictability of short-term climate in China depends not only on the region of China being investigated, but also on the time scale and the atmospheric internal dynamical process.
Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP
YU Yongqiang, ZHANG Xuehong, GUO Yufu
2004, 21(3): 444-455. doi: 10.1007/BF02915571
Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). From the original flux anomalycoupling model developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling model, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.
Recent Advances in Dynamical Extra-Seasonal to Annual Climate Prediction at IAP/CAS
LIN Zhaohui, WANG Huijun, ZHOU Guangqing, CHEN Hong, LANG Xianmei, ZHAO Yan, ZENG Qingcun
2004, 21(3): 456-466. doi: 10.1007/BF02915572
Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly,the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-Ⅱ) has been described,and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980-1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore, IAP DCP-Ⅱ has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998, and the verification results show that IAP DCP-Ⅱ can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998-2002). Meanwhile, an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction, along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g., land surface characteristics, sea surface temperature).Certain conclusions have been reached, such as, the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies, and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally, several practical techniques (e.g., ensemble technique, correction method, etc.), which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China, have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of critical requirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction.
Progresses of Researches on Numerical Weather Prediction in China: 1999-2002
XUE Jishan
2004, 21(3): 467-474. doi: 10.1007/BF02915573
The recent progresses in the research and development of (NWP) in China are reviewed in this paper. The most impressive achievements are the development of direct assimilation of satellite irradiances with a 3DVAR (three-dimentional variational) data assimilation system and a non-hydrostatic model with a semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit scheme. Progresses have also been made in model physics and model application to precipitation and environmental forecasts. Some scientific issues of great importance for further development are discussed.
Recent Progresses in Atmospheric Remote Sensing Research in China-- Chinese National Report on Atmospheric Remote Sensing Research in China during 1999-2003
QIU Jinhuan, CHEN Hongbin
2004, 21(3): 475-484. doi: 10.1007/BF02915574
Progresses of atmospheric remote sensing research in China during 1999-2003 are summarily introduced.This research includes: (1) microwave remote sensing of the atmosphere; (2) Lidar remote sensing; (3)remote sensing of aerosol optical properties; and (4) other research related to atmospheric remote sensing,including GPS remote sensing of precipitable water vapor and radiation model development.
Progress in Marine Meteorology Studies in China during 1999-2002
WANG Dongxiao, QIN Zenghao, SHI Ping
2004, 21(3): 485-496. doi: 10.1007/BF02915575
The progresses of marine meteorology studies achieved in China during the four year period from 1999 to 2002 are summarized in six directions: air-sea flux, marine meteorology in high latitudes, marine disasters, connection between ocean and weather/climate in China, remote sensing applications and new methodologies in marine meteorology. Compared to the previous ones, these studies adopted much more first-hand datasets, and more scientific issues were involved. As an exciting remark, there were so many contributions done by the young scientists. A brief statement about the research strategy of marine meteorology in China for the coming years is also given.
A Review of Major Progresses in Mesoscale Dynamic Research in China since 1999
ZHOU Xiaoping, LU Hancheng, NI Yunqi, TAN Zhemin
2004, 21(3): 497-504. doi: 10.1007/BF02915576
Mesoscale research conducted by Chinese meteorologists during the past four years is reviewed.Advances in theoretical studies include (a) mesoscale quasi-balanced and semi-balanced dynamics, derived through scale analysis and the perturbation method which are suitable for describing mesoscale vortices;(b) subcritical instability and vortex-sheet instability; (c) frontal adjustment mechanism and the effect of topography on frontgenesis; and (d) slantwise vorticity development theories, the slantwise vortex equation,and moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomalies with precipitation-related heat and mass sinks and MPV impermeability theorem. From the MPV conservation viewpoint, the transformation mechanism between different scale weather systems is analyzed. Based on the data analysis, a new dew-point front near the periphery of the West Pacific subtropical high is identified. In the light of MPV theory and Q-vector theory, some events associated with torrential rain systems and severe storms are analyzed and diagnosed.Progress in mesoscale numerical simulation has been made in the development of meso-?, meso-? vortices,meso-??-scale downbursts and precipitation produced by deep convective systems with MM5 and other mesoscale models.
An Overview of Tropical Cyclone and Tropical Meteorology Research Progress
CHEN Lianshou
2004, 21(3): 505-514. doi: 10.1007/BF02915577
There has been much progress in the study of tropical cyclones and tropical meteorology in China in the past few years. A new atmospheric field experiment of tropical cyclone landfall with the acronym of CLATEX (China Landfalling Typhoon Experiment) was implemented in July-August 2002. The boundary layer characteristics of the target typhoon Vongfong and the mesoscale structural features of other landfalling typhoons were studied. In addition, typhoon track operational forecasting errors in the last decade have been reduced because the operational monitoring equipment and forecast techniques were improved.Some results from the research program on tropical cyclone landfall, structure and intensity change, intensification near coastal waters, interaction between tropical cyclone and mid-latitude circulation, and the interaction among different scales of motion are described in this paper. Four major meteorological scientific experiments in China with international cooperation were implemented in 1998: the South China Sea monsoon field experiment (SCSMEX), the Tibetan Plateau field experiment (TIPEX), the Huaihe River basin energy and water cycle experiment (HUBEX), and the South China heavy rain scientific experiment (HUAMEX). Although these field experiments have different scientific objectives, they commonly relate to monsoon activities and they interact with each other. The valuable intensive observation data that were obtained have already been shared internationally. Some new findings have been published recently.Other research work in China, such as the tropical air-sea interaction, tropical atmospheric circulation,and weather systems, are reviewed in this paper as well. Some research results have shown that the rainfall anomalies for different regions in China were closely related to the stages of El Nino events.