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Volume 8 Issue 4

Oct.  1991

Article Contents

On the Chaotic Behavior and Predictability of the Real Atmosphere


doi: 10.1007/BF02919264

  • In this paper the concept of Chaos and its applications to the study of predictability theory is introduced. The au-thor’s attempt is to give a general overview of ideas and methods involved in this problem to scientists, who are inter-ested in the problem of predictability but not familiar with the theory of chaos. The problem is discussed in 4 sections. In the first section, the concept of chaos and the study methods are outlined briefly; in the second section, the methods of quantitatively measuring the main characteristics of chaos which are the basis for the predictability theory are in-troduced; the third section discusses the time series analysis for directly studying chaotic phenomena in practical prob-lems; and the last section presents some research results on the chaotic characteristics and the predictability of the real atmosphere.
  • [1] Chou Jifan, 1989: Predictability of the Atmosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 6, 335-346.  doi: 10.1007/BF02661539
    [2] YAN Li, WANG Panxing, YU Yongqiang, LI Lijuan, WANG Bin, 2010: Potential Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere GCM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 921-936.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9062-y
    [3] Ruiqiang DING, Jianping LI, Baosheng LI, 2017: Determining the Spectrum of the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponents in a Multidimensional Chaotic System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 1027-1034.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7011-8
    [4] WANG Donghai, P. MINNIS, T. P. CHARLOCK, D. K. ZHOU, F. G. ROSE, W. L. SMITH, W. L. SMITH Jr., L. NGUYEN, 2007: Real-Time Mesoscale Forecast Support During the CLAMS Field Campaign, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 599-605.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0599-3
    [5] WEI Na, LI Ying, 2013: A Modeling Study of Land Surface Process Impacts on Inland Behavior of Typhoon Rananim (2004), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 367-381.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1242-5
    [6] HU Shujuan, CHOU Jifan, 2004: Uncertainty of the Numerical Solution of a Nonlinear System's Long-term Behavior and Global Convergence of the Numerical Pattern, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 767-774.  doi: 10.1007/BF02916373
    [7] Yan Shaojin, Peng Yongqing, Wang Jianzhong, 1991: Determination of Kolmogorov Entropy of Chaotic Attractor Included in One-Dimensional Time Series of Meteorological Data, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 243-250.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658098
    [8] Xue Jishan, Wang Kangling, Wang Zhiming, Huang Minqiang, Zhang Xuehong, Yuan Chongguang, 1988: TEST OF A TROPICAL LIMITED AREA NUMERICAL PREDIC-TION MODEL INCLUDING EFFECT OF REAL TOPOGRAPHY, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 5, 1-14.  doi: 10.1007/BF02657341
    [9] LU Huijuan, Qin XU, YAO Mingming, GAO Shouting, 2011: Time-Expanded Sampling for Ensemble-Based Filters: Assimilation Experiments with Real Radar Observations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 743-757.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0021-4
    [10] Xuan LI, Ruiqiang DING, Jianping LI, 2019: Determination of the Backward Predictability Limit and Its Relationship with the Forward Predictability Limit, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 669-677.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8205-z
    [11] J. R. Kulkarni, 1991: Monsoon Subdivisional Rainfall Dimensionality and Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 351-356.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919617
    [12] Chen Yingyi, 1993: Predictability of the 500 hPa Height Field, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 10, 497-503.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656975
    [13] Wang Huijun, 1999: A Preliminary Study on the Polar Climate Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 361-366.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0015-2
    [14] WANG Gaili, LIU Liping, DING Yuanyuan, 2012: Improvement of Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Real-Time Adjustments to Z--R Relationships and Inverse Distance Weighting Correction Schemes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 575-584.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-1139-8
    [15] Wei ZHOU, Mengyan CHEN, Wei ZHUANG, Fanghua XU, Fei ZHENG, Tongwen WU, Xin WANG, 2016: Evaluation of the Tropical Variability from the Beijing Climate Center's Real-Time Operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 208-220.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4282-9
    [16] XIANG Jie, LIAO Qianfeng, HUANG Sixun, LAN Weiren, FENG Qiang, ZHOU Fengcai, 2006: An Application of the Adjoint Method to a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical-Cyclone Prediction Model (SD–90) II: Real Tropical Cyclone Cases, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 118-126.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0012-7
    [17] Huang Runkeng, Wei Chong, 1986: EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION ON REAL-TIME REMOTE SENSING OF LAYERED ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE BY A GROUND-BASED RADIOMETER OF 1.35 cm WAVELENGTH, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 3, 86-93.  doi: 10.1007/BF02680047
    [18] Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo, Wang Jiacheng, 2002: The Predictability Problems in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 191-204.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0016-x
    [19] Gill M. MARTIN, Amulya CHEVUTURI, Ruth E. COMER, Nick J. DUNSTONE, Adam A. SCAIFE, Daquan ZHANG, 2019: Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 253-260.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8100-z
    [20] Wansuo DUAN, Lichao YANG, Mu MU, Bin WANG, Xueshun SHEN, Zhiyong MENG, Ruiqiang DING, 2023: Recent Advances in China on the Predictability of Weather and Climate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1521-1547.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2334-0

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 October 1991
Manuscript revised: 10 October 1991
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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On the Chaotic Behavior and Predictability of the Real Atmosphere

  • 1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100029

Abstract: In this paper the concept of Chaos and its applications to the study of predictability theory is introduced. The au-thor’s attempt is to give a general overview of ideas and methods involved in this problem to scientists, who are inter-ested in the problem of predictability but not familiar with the theory of chaos. The problem is discussed in 4 sections. In the first section, the concept of chaos and the study methods are outlined briefly; in the second section, the methods of quantitatively measuring the main characteristics of chaos which are the basis for the predictability theory are in-troduced; the third section discusses the time series analysis for directly studying chaotic phenomena in practical prob-lems; and the last section presents some research results on the chaotic characteristics and the predictability of the real atmosphere.

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