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Volume 28 Issue 2

Mar.  2011

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2011 >  28(2): 464-476

Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,IPRC and University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA,Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan


doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0016-1

  • Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 (equivalent to 40 km). Evaluation of the model's performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.
  • [1] LIU Run, LIU Shaw Chen, Ralph J. CICERONE, SHIU Chein-Jung, LI Jun, WANG Jingli, ZHANG Yuanhang, 2015: Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1027-1037.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015- 5002-1
    [2] NING Liang, QIAN Yongfu, 2009: Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 109-118.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0109-x
    [3] Sheng LAI, Zuowei XIE, Cholaw BUEH, Yuanfa GONG, 2020: Fidelity of the APHRODITE Dataset in Representing Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1405-1416.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0098-3
    [4] Yongguang ZHENG, Yanduo GONG, Jiong CHEN, Fuyou TIAN, 2019: Warm-Season Diurnal Variations of Total, Stratiform, Convective, and Extreme Hourly Precipitation over Central and Eastern China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 143-159.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7307-3
    [5] DING Yuguo, CHENG Bingyan, JIANG Zhihong, 2008: A Newly-Discovered GPD-GEV Relationship Together with Comparing Their Models of Extreme Precipitation in Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 507-516.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0507-5
    [6] Priya Bharati, M. R. Hunt Kieran, Mihir Kumar Dash, Pranab Deb, Andrew Orr, 2024: ENSO-induced latitudinal variation of the subtropical jet modulates extreme winter precipitation over the Western Himalaya, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-4057-2
    [7] LI Hongmei, FENG Lei, ZHOU Tianjun, 2011: Multi-model Projection of July--August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO$_{2}$ Doubling. Part I: Precipitation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 433-447.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0013-4
    [8] Yuan WANG, 2015: Air Pollution or Global Warming: Attribution of Extreme Precipitation Changes in Eastern China——Comments on "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes", ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1444-1446.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5109-4
    [9] Chenyu MA, Wei YUAN, Ji NIE, 2020: Responses of Mean and Extreme Precipitation to Different Climate Forcing Under Radiative-Convective Equilibrium, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 377-386.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9236-1
    [10] LIU Run, LIU Shaw Chen, Ralph J. CICERONE, SHIU Chein-Jung, LI Jun, WANG Jingli, ZHANG Yuanhang, 2015: Response to Comments by Yuan WANG on "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes", ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1447-1448.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5121-8
    [11] Huan WU, Xiaomeng LI, Guy J.-P. SCHUMANN, Lorenzo ALFIERI, Yun CHEN, Hui XU, Zhifang WU, Hong LU, Yamin HU, Qiang ZHU, Zhijun HUANG, Weitian CHEN, Ying HU, 2021: From China’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 1-7.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0260-y
    [12] Qinghong ZHANG, Rumeng LI, Juanzhen SUN, Feng LU, Jun XU, Fan ZHANG, 2023: A Review of Research on the Record-Breaking Precipitation Event in Henan Province, China, July 2021, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1485-1500.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2360-y
    [13] Song Yang, Fenghua Ling, Jing-Jia Luo, Lei Bai, 2024: Improving Seasonal Forecast of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern China using CycleGAN Deep Learning Bias Correction, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-4003-3
    [14] Bian HE, Qing BAO*, Xiaocong WANG, Linjiong ZHOU, Xiaofei WU, Yimin LIU, Guoxiong WU, Kangjun CHEN, Sicheng HE, Wenting HU, Jiandong LI, Jinxiao LI, Guokui NIAN, Lei WANG, Jing YANG, Minghua ZHANG, Xiaoqi ZHANG, 2019: CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 Historical Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Simulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, , 771-778.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9027-8
    [15] Yujing QIN, Chuhan LU, Liping LI, 2017: Multi-scale Cyclone Activity in the Changjiang River-Huaihe River Valleys during Spring and Its Relationship with Rainfall Anomalies, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 246-257.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6042-x
    [16] Ambrogio VOLONTÉ, Mark MUETZELFELDT, Reinhard SCHIEMANN, Andrew G. TURNER, Nicholas KLINGAMAN, 2021: Magnitude, Scale, and Dynamics of the 2020 Mei-yu Rains and Floods over China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 2082-2096.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1085-z
    [17] Ying NA, Riyu LU, 2023: The Concurrent Record-breaking Rainfall over Northwest India and North China in September 2021, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 653-662.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-2187-y
    [18] Wenxia ZHANG, Robin CLARK, Tianjun ZHOU, Laurent LI, Chao LI, Juan RIVERA, Lixia ZHANG, Kexin GUI, Tingyu ZHANG, Lan LI, Rongyun PAN, Yongjun CHEN, Shijie TANG, Xin HUANG, Shuai HU, 2024: 2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 1001-1016.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-4080-3
    [19] CHEN Huopo, SUN Jianqi, 2009: How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 773-782.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8211-7
    [20] YU Entao, WANG Tao, GAO Yongqi, and XIANG Weiling, 2014: Precipitation Pattern of the Mid-Holocene Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 962-971.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3178-9
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 March 2011
    Manuscript revised: 10 March 2011
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    • 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,IPRC and University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA,Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
    • Manuscript received: 2011-03-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2011-03-10

    Abstract: Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 (equivalent to 40 km). Evaluation of the model's performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.

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